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S.Calif. has worst affordable housing crisis in U.S Jul/Aug '98 newsletterv8#4 S.Calif. Assoc. NonProfit Housing 3345 Wilshire Blvd ste1005 L.A. CA 90010 213.480.1249 nee www.scanph.org/newsjuly.html#anchor69852
Fullerton CA city council candidate Patricia Schuff
wants to "halt affordable housing" because it leads to "overcrowding, blighted neighborhoods and overuse of parks & schools", mistaking solution for cause.
Santa Ana residents raise concerns about unaffordable rents & shortage of units
Santa Ana Between 1980 & 1990, the city's population soared by 90,000. But housing in the
same period inched up by only 8,000 units. Between 1990 & 2000, the population jumped by 21,000. But
housing growth in the same period declined by 41 units, after homes were demolished for various
transportation projects.
In years past, Santa Ana has led the charge to reduce occupancy limits in homes, but the laws have been struck down in court. In its fight, the city has been accused of being insensitve to Hispanic and Asian immigrants in an expensive housing market. A county-funded housing study last year found that high rents and home prices have left a third of county residents living in crowded or substandard housing, or paying more than 30 % of their family income for housing.
The city is about 70 % Hispanic and has the youngest population in the county, with a median age of 26. And
35 % of Santa Ana's households have families with five or more members (Costa Mesa has 10 % and
Anaheim 17 %), according to statistics presented at the meeting.
State housing officials have recommended that Santa Ana build 1,300 more housing units over the next five years
to accommodate needs, but it's not a requirement and is unlikely to happen. The general plan's housing element
and the consolidated plan should be drafted by February or March. Final reports, which will include five-year
housing plans for the city, should go to the City Council in May. The city is also conducting a survey of housing and community-development needs. info 714.667.2260.
Savage brave scouting |
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Tenant Movement NYC 1904-1984
from TenantNet Alameda Corridor Project The End of Southern California Alexander Cockburn says adios to Aztlan
Nico Calavita, prof. City Planning
Grad.Pgm SDSU more SF woes Housing & Overpopulation Shocked by the obvious 7.1.01 Thos. Sowell Capitalism Magazine | |
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Study: Costs rising for average California families 9.24.01 Leon Drouin Keith AP
LOS ANGELES The wages needed for the typical California family to meet basic costs total
nearly three times the federal poverty level, according to a report released Monday by a non-profit
research & advocacy group, California Budget Project, which found
that a family of 4 needs an income of $52,034 a year to earn a modest living, a 16% increase from
1999, when the organization first studied how much it takes to make a living in the state. The study found
that the cost of living is rising faster than the state's average hourly wage, which went up 9.5 %, from
$11.96 in 1998 to $13.10 last year.
"There has to be some broader awareness that the minimum wage standards are utterly contemptible –
they're not just ridiculous," said Bob Untiedt, executive director of the Hollywood Interfaith Sponsoring
Committee, a coalition of churches and a synagogue working to improve the living standards of their
community. Untiedt said that although wealthier people may think that families can get by on much less
than the report suggests, doing so means coping with hardships including overcrowded, substandard
housing, a lack of transportation and no medical care. "There really is a lot of struggle in the lives of lots
of ordinary people," he said. The study assumes that families rent their homes, do not send their children to private schools, are not saving money and aren't taking vacations, Ross said. "We don't even figure in two weeks at a state park," she said. Ross said one thing federal officials could do quickly to ease the burden on families is to grant the state a waiver that would allow it to expand its "Healthy Families" program, which provides health care to children in families earning two and a half times the poverty level or less. The waiver would expand the program to the children's families.
9.26.01 SD UT |
credit bubble bulletin 3.7.03 Doug Noland Prudent Bear
To bring additional perspective to the enormity of this Credit explosion, recall that pre-Bubble 1997 saw total Household Mortgage growth of $238 billion (nineties average of $250 billion). The fourth quarter saw a lending frenzy at almost 4x the pace of only 5 years ago. For 2002, Household Mortgage borrowings jumped $723 billion (12.6%), with Total Mortgage Debt growth of $880.9 billion (11.6%).
Total Mortgage Debt growth was up 25% from the previous year's record ($881 bn vs. $706 bn) and up 190% from
1997's growth. For comparison, the 1980s' (Total Mortgage debt growth) peak was 1988's $316 billion, while the
nineties averaged $277 billion. Total outstanding Mortgage Debt is up $1.59 Trillion over 23 years (23%) and $3.3
Trillion (64%) over 5 years. For comparison, the previous 5 year period saw Total Mortgage Credit growth of $1.1
Trillion.
The Great Mortgage Finance Bubble is fueled by unprecedented financial Credit creation (financial sector liability/"electronic IOU" expansion).
Financial Sector debt increased at a 10.9% rate during Q4 2002, strongest pace in 2 years.
During a quarter that saw just over 1% annualized GDP growth, GSE borrowings increased at a 15.1% rate to
$2.55 Trillion. Outstanding Mortgage-backed Securities expanded at a rate of 9.6% to $3.16 Trillion, and Asset-
backed Securities at a 16.1% pace to $2.39 Trillion. Combined (GSE, MBS, and ABS) "Structured Finance Trio"
debt expanded at a $1.04 Trillion pace (13.2%) during the fourth quarter to $8.1 Trillion. For all of 2002, Structured
Finance borrowings increased $838 billion, or 11.6% (GSE's 10.7%, MBS 11.6%, and ABS 12.4%). GDP
expanded by less than $400 billion during 2002.
Looking at dollars, Structured Finance debt has expanded $4.1 Trillion in 5 years, while GDP has increased $2.1
Trillion (about 1.9 to 1). Parabolic nature of the escalating divergence between debt growth & economic
"output" (inflating financial claims versus stagnating "output" growth) is visible over the past 2 years in Structured
Finance Trio debt surged to $1.8 Trillion, while GDP has increased $621 billion (about 2.9 to 1).
U.S. Govt Securities (Treasury & Agency) holdings increased $182.1 billion to $1.1 Trillion, compared to
2001's $33.7 billion increase. Agency securities holdings jumped $139.2 billion (18%) during 2002 to $916.6 billion,
versus the previous year's $55.6 billion increase. Holdings of Corporate & Foreign Bonds added only $3.7
billion to $380.1 billion, a fraction of 2001's $97.8 billion increase. Corporate Bank Loans dropped $75.8 billion to
$1.35 Trillion, after declining $76.2 billion during 2001.
Curiously, we see that the acquisition of Municipal Securities more than doubled to $110 billion. Households
increased Muni holdings by 22% to $616.6 billion during the year. Is the Household sector speculating on
interest rate differentials, borrowing tax-deductible mortgage debt to acquire tax-free muni securities? It is also
worth noting that Household (& Nonprofit) sector Total Assets ended 2002 at $47.9 Trillion. While this is off
2.7% from the year-2000 high, Total Assets remain up 47% over 7 years.
Intl financial flows are accounted for in the "Rest of World" (ROW) sector. While the hype of the hyper-productive
U.S. economy is unrelenting, foreign investors are in dramatic retreat. Importantly, Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) in the U.S. has collapsed. FDI surpassed $100 billion for the first time during 1997 ($109.3 bn), then
jumped to $179 billion during 1998. Escalating financial & economic Bubble enticed $289.5 billion of FDI
during 1999 and the high-water mark $307.7 billion for year-2000. Speculative FDI was stemmed, however, by the
bursting equity/NASDAQ Bubble. FDI sank to $130.8 billion during 2001 and collapsed to last year's $46.0 billion,
the lowest level since 1992.
We do not expect FDI to the U.S. to recover for many years. That the dollar has sunk in the face of massive
purchases of U.S. securities portends ominous dollar vulnerability. If there is any waning of demand for Agencies
& U.S. Corporates (esp. asset-backs), we have a serious problem. The day our foreign-sourced financiers
move to liquidate U.S. securities, we are faced with a calamitous dislocation. As goes Structured Finance, so goes the dollar.
This Household financial asset accumulation provides liquidity for govt borrowing & spending, along with the newfound liquidity in the corporate bond market. Record systemic Credit creation (incl speculative Credit market leveraging) then extends the inflation in home & Credit market securities values, which stimulates only greater borrowings. Credit excess begets asset inflation that begets further Credit excess.
Along with conspicuous Credit abuse, there are distinct speculative components as well. There has been a
rush by the household sector to procure the most valuable inflating asset (home) possible, stretching the limits of borrowing capacity. In the financial sector, there has evolved unparalleled leveraged speculation in Agency, Mortgage-backs and other debt instruments.
Dr. Greenspan, it's a textbook Bubble. As enormous Bubbles tend to do, it has taken on a precarious life of its own. Until something changes, we should err on the side of expecting this amazing blow-off in Mortgage Finance to spur continued rampant dollar financial claims inflation. This remains dollar bearish, economic stability bearish and financial fragility bullish.
Judge's ruling may alter foreclosures
Cleveland A U.S. judge in Ohio created a possible obstacle for lenders trying to reclaim foreclosed property from troubled borrowers. U.S. District Judge Christopher Boyko of Cleveland ruled against a long-standing practice by dismissing 14 foreclosure cases brought on behalf of mortgage investors because those trying to seize the property The New York Times said. Some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was reported outstanding at the end of 2006.
But it has become more difficult at times to determine who holds the mortgage notes, consumer advocates said, because of the complex structure and disparate ownership of mortgage securities.
Still slim pickings
The house on 16th Street in Santa Monica was new, big and, most important, for sale, but it didn't do much for Damir and Anne Pevec. "It's a wham-bam contractor house," said Anne of the lot-swallowing, 5,500-square-foot, $3.7-million home. "It's a spec house," Damir added. "It's a lot of home for the money, but it's lacking in character."
The number of homes for sale has been persistently low for almost five years, a cycle that bottomed out in the spring of 2004. Since the beginning of this summer, inventory levels in many neighborhoods have crept up a bit, and there is anecdotal evidence that some pockets have more on the market now that September is here, but the increases are not much by historical standards.
A confluence of events is responsible. People are staying put and renovating instead of trading up; long-term interest rates have been lodged near historical lows; many homeowners have borrowed heavily against their equity and spent the funds; and, as traffic congestion worsens and gas prices soar, those with homes close to their jobs aren't willing to move if it adds to the commute.
In another measure of the pinch, the Combined L.A./Westside Multiple Listing Service tallied just 1,891 single-family homes for sale in June (the last month for which data are available) in an area stretching from Silver Lake to Playa del Rey and Malibu. That's down from several thousand on the market in the late 1990s.
The lack of homes for sale is a statewide phenomenon and another surprising characteristic of a real estate market that has for several years defied many experts' predictions of a significant slowdown. Typically, an extended run-up in appreciation is checked at some point by a sell-off as homeowners try to cash in on their equity and trade up. The oft-cited imbalance between population growth and new-home construction in the region helps explain why prices have gone up but not necessarily why more people aren't listing their homes for sale.
Another reason is that with incomes rising slowly, many are loath to take on the higher tax burden that frequently comes with buying a new house. Added to that is the uncertainty about the cost of borrowing money.
Low interest rates and low inventory have contributed to the unprecedented appreciation of single-family homes in the last few years. Los Angeles County homeowners have experienced 19 consecutive months of year-over-year median price gains in excess of 20%. That streak ended last October, with year-to-year gains moving down to an average 15% since then.
In Los Angeles, it's not just Westside home shoppers who are being affected by low inventory levels. Maureen Kaye recently listed a four-bedroom, 1,480-square-foot home in the Valley Glen area of the San Fernando Valley for $649,000. She and some partners purchased the home a year ago for about $400,000 as an investment, spending a little more than $100,000 to fix it up.
The San Fernando Valley crunch is tightest among the most affordable homes, he said. Low interest rates have put more potential buyers in the market, meaning more competition for available homes.
Although many of the conditions that drove local inventory down to such low levels still exist, most real estate professionals believe that higher interest rates and slowing appreciation will gradually push the number of listings up in the months ahead.
The Pevecs said that despite their strong desire to live in Santa Monica, which is near their grown children and centrally located for managing their commercial properties, they are weary of the hunt. They recently expanded their options a bit and put an offer on a house in Venice. |
Tiny island shows legacy of Prop. 13's tax limits
Lido Isle residents pay as little as $714 in taxes on homes where median sales price is $1 million. 9.29.03 Ashley Powers & Kimi Yoshino L.A. Times
John M. Franco voted against Proposition 13 in 1978. The Los Angeles city employee feared the sweeping tax
measure would wreck local government finances.
Franco, 65, is well aware that his good fortune means a loss for cash-hungry local govts. "I can be a living example
of why I thought this was a bad idea," he says.But the flip side of Prop. 13, Franco and many of his neighbors say,
is that it has allowed them to stay on Lido Isle as home prices soared. "Taxes would have gone up to the point
where, for heaven's sake, three-fourths of the people couldn't afford to live there," said Jane Howlett, 81, who until
recently lived on Lido Isle. "You have mansions on one side and old people in small houses on the other."
Prompted by tales of Californians being taxed out of their homes as property values rose in the 1970s, Prop. 13
capped increases in the assessed value of property at 2% per year, thereby limiting property taxes, which are
generally about 1% of the assessed value.
Even now, Prop. 13 continues to spark debate, most recently in the campaigns of candidates hoping to be governor
if Gray Davis is recalled 10.7.03. Some candidates have suggested the state's fiscal crisis shows that the law
should be altered, perhaps by exempting commercial property. But the law's central mission, protecting
homeowners from escalating taxes that go with California's perennially hot real estate market, is considered
sacred.
Lido Isle is a prime example. Once considered marginal property, it has evolved into a desirable neighborhood.
Because of Prop. 13, multimillionaires here live alongside middle-class retirees. County records tell the tale: out of
about 900 homeowners, nearly a quarter pay $2,000 or less, as little as $714, in property taxes a year. Another
10% pay $20,000 or more, with the highest, more than $100,000, levied on a $10-million beachfront home.
Residents say there's something special about Lido Isle, once a haven for movie stars, though only Rat-Packer
Joey Bishop still resides there. In this neighborhood, there are no gas stations or grocery stores, just homes, a few
tennis courts and a sense of community and tranquillity.
That's a long way to come for a place once so undesirable that owners held a "disposal sale" in 1932 to sell lots as
cheaply as $550. By 1935, most of the 800-plus lots remained unsold. Agnes Blomquist, who contributed to the
book "Newport Beach: The First Century," wrote that she looked at the acres of salt grass and weeds and said,
"Why do you want to come to this God-forsaken spot?"
"In recent years, compared to the rest of Newport Beach, I think Lido Isle has been undervalued," said real estate
agent Alison McCormick, a third-generation Lido resident. "But in the last 2 years, people go, 'My gosh, beaches, a
yacht club, playgrounds. You've got docks, tennis courts.' It's like a year-round vacation, really. It's become quite
popular."
Milton Spielman, retired patent attorney who sold his home for $1 million, rocked on a patio chair in back of his 2
story, 4 bedroom home just days before moving and mused: "This isn't much of a house, I don't think." He bought it
as a summer home, rented it in the winters and moved to Lido full-time in 1985. Strolling through the neighborhood,
Spielman said he believes he's "at the bottom of the scale on Lido Isle."
In the last year, the median home price statewide jumped 19.1%, according to the California Assn. of Realtors.
That's evidence, officials from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn. said, that Prop. 13 is as necessary as ever. "It
resulted in the stabilization of neighborhoods and allows people to stay in the neighborhood where they bought
homes and not be forced out by increasing tax," said group's executive director Kris Vosburgh. "The basic benefit
to both new & old home buyers is that you know what your taxes are going to be from year to year. One
doesn't have to shudder in fear."
"Where else could we go where it would be less?" Quinn said. "The fact that the taxes are low is a salvation." He
calls it a financial security blanket and a far cry from the Costa Mesa condominium where the couple first lived, with
not much more than a television, a bed and an old piano. To the Quinns, this Lido Isle home is more than just a
bargain. It's where he brought his wife after their first date, where his piano-teacher mom and family friends greeted
them with a serenade.
More Californians at risk of losing homes
The number of Californians defaulting on their mortgage loans is rising rapidly, according to figures released Tuesday, providing striking evidence that more people are at risk of losing their homes. Default notices jumped 145% in the last three months of 2006, accelerating a trend that began in late 2005 as home sales started to cool.
It was the largest number of default notices in any three-month period since 1998.
Analysts said the increase was not worrisome yet. But if the number continues to escalate, it could drag down home values in certain communities, they warned.
Home markets that are most vulnerable include the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, both of which drew throngs of first-time buyers even as the housing boom was ending. Such homeowners are the most at risk of losing their homes because they have relatively little equity in their properties, making it harder to refinance their mortgages.
Default notices are the initial step in the foreclosure process. In the fourth quarter of last year, lenders issued such notices to 37,273 borrowers across the state, warning them that they were at risk of foreclosure, compared with 15,196 during the same period a year earlier, DataQuick said.
Defaults and foreclosures fell steadily starting in the late 1990s as housing prices took off. In those heady days, practically anyone needing money to pay bills could refinance, cashing out equity from what seemed to be an endlessly refilling piggy bank.
During the mid-1990s, this process reached its peak as quarterly default statistics routinely exceeded 50,000 and foreclosures topped 15,000. (The housing stock has grown since then, making the 1990s numbers even worse by comparison.)
"I really don't see any distress out there," said Pacific Capital mortgage broker Chris Comer in San Marcos CA. "Most people getting notices of default are figuring out ways to get those mortgages current by any means possible so they're not kicked out in the street."
A year or two earlier, that would have been nothing but good news. In the early part of the decade, Brown recalled, "property values went crazy."
In September he gave up and stopped paying the mortgage. He's now in default, speeding toward foreclosure.
Brown's situation illustrates a potential wild card in the housing market that barely existed a decade ago. Lenders have invented all sorts of newfangled loans, many of which are reset to higher interest rates after a fixed period. The ability of borrowers to repay such loans, particularly in a weak market, is untested.
That's also the opinion of Durham NC based nonprofit advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending. Last month, the center issued a lengthy analysis explaining how millions of so-called sub-prime loans would soon turn bad. Sub-prime loans are made at higher rates, and include more onerous terms, to borrowers who don't qualify for lower-cost "prime" mortgages.
The borrowers most at risk are naturally those who bought most recently. The center estimates that a quarter of the sub-prime loans made in the Central Valley city of Merced last year will result in foreclosure. That would be the highest rate in the country, based on the center's calculations.
Foreclosed homes are typically sold at a discount, which can hurt property values of nearby houses. Yet even a jump in foreclosures, said, one of the report's authors Ellen Schloemer, isn't by itself going to bring back the dark days of the early and mid-1990s.
Homeowner groups' power to foreclose is under attack
Lawmakers say boards have gone too far by seizing and selling units over minor disputes
Alarmed by a flurry of horror stories, state lawmakers are rushing to resolve a long-standing complaint about
homeowners associations: the power that they have to seize properties without going to court. By law, associations are entitled to foreclose on the homes of members who fail to pay their dues. Though most residents pay their bills before their houses are actually sold, thousands have lost their homes, sometimes over disputes involving a few hundred dollars. "It's legalized extortion," said state senior citizens advocate Marjorie Murray, many of whom live in condominiums & private communities run by associations. "Why should homeowners associations have such a power?"
Some homeowners association leaders say they need so-called nonjudiciary foreclosure powers, which allow them to take property without seeking a judge's approval, to keep neighborhoods looking tidy and to protect property values. Without such powers, associations would have little ability to require homeowners to pay assessments that cover the costs of such projects as new roofing in a condominium complex or landscaping services & street maintenance in a gated subdivision.
The Assembly & Senate, responding to recent high-profile cases, are considering 2 bills this year that would limit homeowners associations' nonjudiciary foreclosure powers. "One of the doctrines of our laws is that the penalty or remedy should fit the violation," said Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg D-Sacramento, whose bill banning nonjudiciary foreclosure passed the Assembly at the end of May. "Taking someone's home obviously should be the last resort."
As they grow in numbers, homeowners associations, a form of private govt whose elected board members enforce community rules and levy assessments, have come under criticism, even ridicule, over seemingly trivial
regulations, incl what lawn ornaments residents are allowed to have or what color they can paint a front porch.The ability to take someone's home is such an extraordinary power that its use should be limited, even banned, critics of the practice say. Some associations are too quick to resort to foreclosures, sometimes over relatively small amounts, the critics say. Because the associations have little interest besides recovering the dues they are owed, homes are sometimes sold for pennies on the dollar, leading to huge losses for individual homeowners.
"It just didn't occur to me that someone would foreclose over $120," said Anita Radcliff, 64. "It was outside the
realm of my reality." Their homeowners association, Copper Cove at the Lake Tulloch Owners Assn, atty Mike
Woodbury, said the couple were given warnings & opportunities to avoid the sale. "It is the obligation of the
homeowner to pay the assessments," he said.
Colburn, 35, settled her lawsuit and reclaimed her townhome at the Villas at Eastlake Shores Owners Assn. In the process of building her case, Colburn found that her association's law firm, Peters & Freedman, had acted as a trustee in other foreclosures in which Sosa had bought properties. In one case, Sosa paid $2,515 for a house in Escondido and, in another, $2,987 for a condominium in Bonita, according to property records in Colburn's lawsuit.
It would have been a potential windfall for Sosa, who stood to make as much as 20 times his investment. Colburn said her townhome had nearly $100,000 in equity after subtracting the $130,000 in mortgage still owed to her bank.
By law, the bids start at the amount owed, and any anything above that goes to the original homeowner. The buyer assumes some prior liens, such as the mortgage.
Actual sales of homes are rare. About 1% of all foreclosure actions begun by homeowners associations end with the home being sold, according to the Community Associations Institute, which conducted a survey in 2002. Most homeowners faced with the prospect of losing their home at auction pay their debts, the trade group
maintains.
Lawmakers would like to curb the trend and offer some protection for individual homeowners. A bill introduced by Sen. Denise Ducheny D-San Diego would prohibit homeowners associations from foreclosing for debts of less than $2,500 and assure that those who are drawn into foreclosure receive at least a portion of their equity: up to $50,000 for a single adult, $75,000 for a family and $150,000 for senior citizens.
Banks really do prefer foreclosure
At the start of the foreclosure crisis, personal-finance experts urged struggling homeowners to contact their lenders if they started to fall behind on their mortgages. The lenders want to do everything they can, homeowners were told, to avoid a foreclosure. Now, the experts aren't so sure that's the case.
Jason, of San Diego, said he's become frustrated trying to complete a loan modification.
"I faxed papers repeated times and was told that I need to fax more or that they never received them so they can start a modification," Maria, of Sussex, N.J., told ConsumerAffairs.com. "I made payments and they never credited my account. Now they call in October 2009 and they tell me that they stopped the modification because I never faxed out the papers. Is this a joke?"
The Treasury Dept did, in fact, begin a loan- modification program in March to encourage loan servicers to modify troubled loans to prevent foreclosures. But the process has proved slow, and for many, frustrating. Meanwhile, foreclosures continue unabated.
"One common-sense solution to the foreclosure crisis is to modify the loan terms in more instances," said Diane Thompson, an NCLC attorney and author of the report. "Foreclosures are a costly ordeal for the homeowner, the lender, and the community. Yet they continue to outstrip loan modifications because servicers have no incentive to help borrowers stay in their homes."
Homeowners seeking to save their homes by modifying unaffordable loans typically deal with servicers. That is why the financial interests of servicers have the potential to hurt homeowners, the report says. Financial incentives encourage servicers to ignore the interests of homeowners. For example, the report suggests that servicers often deny homeowners principal and interest rate reductions because as servicers they find it profitable to offer repayment plans or forbearance agreements that do little to reduce homeowners' debt burdens.
The NCLC report also found that the lack of third-party oversight allows servicers to pursue foreclosure instead of effective loan modifications that would benefit homeowners as well as investors. While credit-rating agencies and bond insurers do monitor servicers, their oversight too often encourages servicers to foreclose.
"The people who could change the way servicers are doing business: Congress, the administration, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the market participants who set the terms of engagement: credit- rating agencies and bond insurers, have failed to provide servicers with the necessary incentives to reduce foreclosures and increase loan modifications," Thompson said. |
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No sign yet of a bottom in home prices Rising foreclosures, big new-home inventory push recovery into next year 7.24.08 John W. Schoen MSNBC
When will home prices stop falling? The answer is critical to millions of American homeowners who are watching their home equity melt away or are unable to move because falling values have sent potential buyers to the sidelines. Even if you don’t own a home, the question is central to your chance of getting a good night’s sleep if you’re worried about your job, your bank account or the investment in your 401(k).
In the latest evidence that prices are still sliding, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that the median price of existing homes sold in June fell to $215,000, down 6.1 percent from a year ago. Sales fell 2.6 percent from the month before, far more than analysts had expected.
But forecasting a turnaround in any financial market is a tricky business. And the current housing market is vulnerable to a variety of unique variables that make calling the bottom even tougher. For starters, a lot depends on whether anything can be done to stop the ongoing wave of home foreclosures. As the inventory of bank-owned properties keeps rising, lenders have become eager sellers, hoping to get those properties off their books before prices fall further.
With mortgage delinquencies rising, more foreclosures are on the way. The question is, how many? Some of those at risk of losing their homes got in over their heads or were sold loans they couldn’t afford. As the economy has worsened, households that might otherwise have held on are succumbing to job loss or rising food and energy prices that are busting their monthly budgets.
Then there’s the question of oversupply. As the housing market ground to a halt over the past year, homebuilders continued to build, hoping that the downturn would be short-lived. As a result, the inventory of unsold homes rose well beyond what was needed to meet demand. Until demand picks up, that surplus will continue to weigh on prices.
With current level of 111 million U.S. households growing by about 1 percent a year, new households will absorb about 1.1 million housing units a year, according to RDQ Economist chief economist John Ryding. That’s just about how much surplus housing is on the market. So even if new construction ground to a halt, it would take a while to work off that backlog.
“We may have to see as much as a further 30 percent decline (in housing starts) from here,” Rosenberg in a research note.
Even if all the bad loans could be cleared out to the system quickly, and excess inventory of new homes were cut to more normal levels, housing prices still have to come down from the irrationally exuberant levels reached during the height of the housing bubble.
OFHEO, the federal regulator overseeing mortgage finance giants Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac, tracks prices changes for individual homes. The agency's House Price Index is down 4.8 percent nationwide for the year ended in May. But the index only covers loans under the $417,000 limit for Freddie- and Fannie-backed loans.
As with all aspects of real estate, price trends vary widely based on location; national statistics tend to mask wide disparities in price moves. Prices that soared the highest fell the furthest. Based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index, prices in Las Vegas are down nearly 30 percent from their peak, while homes in Charlotte, N.C., have lost less than 5 percent of their value.
Analysts say there are several historical benchmarks that are useful in estimating just how far house prices got ahead of themselves, and just how far they need to fall to returns to “normal".
The price to own a home also bears some relation to the cost of renting instead. From 1983 to 1998, the cost of owning and renting equivalent housing was pretty much the same. But by the time home prices peaked in 2006, buying a home cost as much as 40 percent more as renting a similar home. |
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Rising prices in O.C. are pushing them out of the market, report says 2.3.00 Kate Berry OCty Register
Hispanics & blacks are being pushed out of the housing market in Orange County because of rapidly rising
home prices fueled by the hot economy and a soaring stock market, according to a new report. Home loans to
Hispanics & blacks did not keep pace with lending to whites from 1995 to 1998, the Greenlining Institute, a San Francisco nonprofit that examines lending practices,
reported Wednesday.
"We're not saying the banks are discriminating" said Nanda S. Bose, an advocacy coordinator at the Greenlining
Institute, a coalition of 38 minority business, church and community groups. "This is an affordable-housing crisis
that's going on, and people can't afford homes." The median price of Orange County homes sold last year was
$240,000, up 5.7 % from 1998. Because of rising interest rates, the average monthly mortgage payment rose
faster, increasing 11.4 % to $1,284 for the median single-family home.
Lending to whites in Orange County in 1998 more than doubled those made in 1995, while the %age of home
loans to Hispanics fell to 5.5 %, from 10 %. Blacks fared the worst, at 0.5 % of loans issued, from 1
%, with a paltry 307 loans in all of 1998. Still, the total number of loans to Hispanics and blacks rose slightly in
the period. The income gap between whites and minorities contributed to the disparity in home loans, the
Greenlining Institute said.
It took Maria Heredia & husband Francisco 8 months to qualify for a loan on a 3 bedroom house in
Anaheim that cost $135,000. "We were living with our parents because we couldn't afford to rent," said Maria
Heredia, who owns a metal foundry for sculptors amp; artists in Buena Park. "It's very hard to qualify."
Thomas Borcich, state treasurer of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said mortgage lending in the
United States increasingly is being driven by a rating system that assigns numbers, based on credit reports, that
may unfairly penalize minorities. The system also works against borrowers who deal mostly in cash, he said.
Roughly 72% of whites and 42% of Hispanics andblacks owned their own homes in Orange County in
the period examined by the report. Hispanics made up 28% of the Orange County population in 1998, while
blacks made up 2%. For years, bank executives have said lending differences were caused by factors beyond their control, including fewer applications from minorities and limited lending data.
"There's definitely room to improve," said Lisa Margolin-Feher, a spokeswoman for Bank of America, one of the
biggest home-mortgage lenders in Orange County and nationwide. "We think it's an issue, and we're dealing with
it." For low-income residents of Orange County, the report drives home the challenge of finding affordable housing. Orange County ranked 25th in a recent survey of the least-affordable metropolitan areas by the National
Homebuilder's Association; 14 of the top 25 areas were in California. |
Congressman seeks Nissan investigation 7.7.01 AP
Nashville TN A congressman is asking the House Financial Services Committee to investigate
Nissan's auto financing practices, citing a study that found blacks regularly paid higher finance charges than whites. The study by Vanderbilt University professor Mark Cohen found that black customers in 33 states consistently paid more than white customers for car loans arranged through Nissan dealers from Nissan Motor Acceptance Corp. "This study is disturbing and Congress should look into this with an eye toward finding out if the disparities exist with other lenders,'' said Rep. Harold Ford Jr., D-Tenn., a member of the Financial Services Committee and sponsor of the Consumer Credit Empowerment Act.
Cohen's study looked at more than 300,000 car loans taken out from March 1993 to Sept. 2000. It found that
72.8% of Nissan's black customers were charged a markup, compared to 46.7% of whites. It also found
that the gap between black and white borrowers was largest in Maryland & Wisconsin, where the average
finance charge paid by blacks was about $800 higher than whites paid. Among the largest states, blacks paid $405 more in New York, $245 more in Connecticut and $339 more in New Jersey. In Texas, the black-white gap was $364, and in Florida it was $533. In Tennessee, blacks on average paid $499 more than whites.
Georgia law chills Latino home-buying market
A measure meant to deny jobs and services to illegal immigrants has even legal residents rethinking their future in the state.
Atlanta Two months ago, all Alina Arguello had to do to find Latino home buyers was put up a sign and answer her phone. But ever since Georgia passed one of the most stringent and far-reaching immigration laws in the nation, the number of Latino buyers who call the Re/Max agent's home office in suburban Atlanta has dwindled from about 10 to two a day.
Almost immediately, Latino home buyers pulled out of contracts. Some who had already bought, put their homes on the market. Many prospective buyers stopped searching for homes. Although Georgia's new legislation does not prohibit illegal immigrants from owning property, many wonder whether they will want to live in Georgia when it begins to come into effect in July 2007.
"For Latinos, buying a home is the American dream, but, you know, at this time they are hesitant to accomplish that dream," said Eliezer Velez, who provides housing advice for immigrants through Atlanta's Latin American Assn.
In Georgia, home to the second-fastest growing Latino population in the nation, 37% of Latinos are homeowners, according to the 2000 census. The number of homes purchased by Latinos in metro Atlanta jumped from about 3,500 in 1999 to 8,500 in 2004, according to data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. |
GOP State Sen. Chip Rogers, who represents some of Atlanta's northern suburbs and who sponsored the legislation, said he was "very satisfied" that the law seemed to be prompting some illegal immigrants to consider leaving Georgia. "If someone is here illegally," he said, "buying a house would probably not be a wise investment."
But not all of the Latino immigrants who are uncertain about investing in Georgia property are illegal.
"A lot of people are connected one way or another to the undocumented," said Mata, who founded HomeBanc en Español in 2002. "They are saying: What will happen to my wife, my husband, my mother?"
Re/Max agent Dioris Medina in Tucker has two clients who are legal immigrants who planned to relocate from Virginia to Georgia. They have already signed their contract, but are having second thoughts about whether they would feel welcome in Georgia.
With Congress deadlocked over national immigration reform, many real estate professionals say that insecurity among Latino home buyers is not confined to Georgia.
"To some degree, everyone is sitting on the fence a little bit," said National Assn. of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals co-founder Gary Acosta. "If the national legislation is not intelligent, if it really restricts the opportunity of Latinos, it would be a major blow to the housing industry."
Acosta's organization, which has 17,000 members, recently projected that from 2002 to 2012, 40% of first-time home buyers in the U.S. will be Latino.
If the Latino housing market were to falter, Acosta warned, it would affect every segment of the housing industry. Realtors who do not set out to cater to Latinos would suffer if fewer people were looking for houses.
"Your client can't buy a $300,000 house if he can't sell his $150,000 house," he pointed out.
For now, real estate agents who cater to the Spanish-speaking community in Georgia are adopting more aggressive tactics. Nicaraguan-born U.S. citizen Arguello who has worked in real estate for 12 years, spends two hours a day cold-calling Latinos who live in apartments near the properties she is attempting to sell. She also sends her assistants to Wal-Mart to hand out fliers before she hosts open houses.
"I'm practically pushing people into looking at houses now," she said.
After most of his deals fell through, Congolese refugee Felipe Bernal, who has been selling real estate in Norcross for nearly two years, was in Los Angeles last week. He was meeting clients who want to invest in or relocate to Georgia.
"They are legal, more established," he said of Latino home buyers in California. "And they just can't believe how cheap the houses are in Georgia."
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Ethnic Cleansing genocide by gentrification "Anaheim redevelops away the poor"
Disney 'fairy tale' isn't for everyone Some low-income workers at the resort share motel rooms as the theme park fights efforts to build affordable housing nearby.
The job description is simple: Make the customers believe that Disneyland is "a magic kingdom where life is a fairy tale and dreams really do come true." But at the end of the workday, many of the people who work at the "Happiest Place on Earth" sleep on air mattresses, in by-the-week motel rooms and in apartments shared with other families.
"I've been at this motel since 1997," said Derrick, a Disney security guard who pays $209 a week in rent. He spoke to me Thursday night while standing in the doorway of the room he shares with two elderly aunts at Arena Inn and Suites in Anaheim, about a mile from his job.
First, Disney challenged the right of a council member to cast a vote on the housing because she intends to open a wine bar in the area and might have a conflict of interest. With the council member abstaining, a 2-2 split killed the development. The developer appealed, and last week Disney rolled out the heavy artillery, suing the city over an environmental study that had cleared the way for the project.
The big cheeses insist that having several thousand of their own employees, or anyone else's, live in the Anaheim Resort Area would dim the prospects for generating more business, jobs and taxes. When Mayor Curt Pringle pitched a hybrid of hotel and residential units, some of them for low-income tenants, Disney screamed from the top of the Matterhorn.
Scott Darrell, who runs a nonprofit affordable-housing agency called the Kennedy Commission, can't understand why Disney is so opposed to the project.
To be fair, I think Disney has some reasonable arguments, despite the odious attempts to make City Hall do its bidding. Maybe a 1,500-unit mini-city, with several thousand residents, should be a few miles down the road. But instead of trying to torpedo housing proposals, Disney could earn a few PR points by leading the way in making sure that working stiffs like the ones it employs have a few more options.
Disney Resorts gave $11 million to community causes in 2006 (companywide profits were $1.7 billion in the last quarter alone), but none of it was for housing-related services. Why not throw a few bucks in the direction of the Orange County agencies that are in the business of finding housing solutions, such as the Kennedy Commission?
I met Altman and Cesar Covarrubias, of the Kennedy Commission, at the site of the doomed 1,500-unit housing development. At noon Wednesday, four women from the Peacock Suites Hotel's housekeeping department walked by on their way to lunch, and we asked about their living arrangements.
I later spoke by phone to a hotel switchboard operator who said that for 20 years she commuted from Riverside to the Hilton Anaheim, sometimes spending four hours on the road.
On my way to Anaheim on Thursday night, I spoke by phone to a woman who works in security at Disneyland and lives with seven family members including a nephew who also works at Disney in two motel rooms. When I got to town I met up with Eddie, a Disneyland Hotel bellman who lives with his wife and children, and his parents. Eddie took me to see two friends who work at the same hotel.
A few blocks away, directly across the street from the housing development that's been scuttled, Antonio lives with his wife and 19-year-old son in a $900 one-bedroom. After 15 years working banquets at the Disneyland Hotel, he makes $11.27 an hour and fears he'll lose this apartment if and when Disney builds its third theme park.
Eddie asked Antonio to show me his envelopes, and Antonio removed several small white envelopes from his wallet. One had his mother's name on it. One had the name of the bank where he took out a loan to buy his son's computer. One said "Rent." One said "luz" for lights, or electricity. He puts money in each of them throughout the month as it comes in, so he won't come up short.
Anaheim The City Council, responding to criticism that recent crackdowns on westside motels
punish families down on their luck, asked staff late Tuesday to search for ways to find affordable housing for the
displaced.But the council, in a split vote, continued to take a hard line against what it calls problem motels. It placed
another business the Covered Wagon Motel at 823 S. Beach Blvd. under restrictions that no one can stay at the
motel more than 30 days in a 90-day period.
A barrage of critics lashed out after the council last week imposed the restrictions on the Lincoln Inn formerly
known as the Seville Inn. Tuesday, the council instructed the city staff and City Manager Jim Ruth to work with
existing social advocates to assist any families looking for affordable housing. "Cracking down on these motels is
leading to the displacement of 70 families" in the next few weeks, said the Rev. Jimmy Gaston, whose Church of
Christ assists motel families.
Pauper Chase
Let's nail down O.C.'s role in sloppy repairs
For more than 20 years, various county departments have directed the rehabilitation of low-income family housing
using federal Housing and Urban Development (HUD) money. The idea that helping homeowners repair their
homes prevents neighborhood deterioration is well-founded, but by the summer of 1996, disturbing allegations of
shoddy, unacceptable contractor repair work, as well as abuse of authority by county employees, were being made
by many homeowners. The complaints were directed at the county's Housing and Community Department
(HCD).
The task of identifying qualified homeowners, writing contracts, conducting the bidding and contract award process
and overseeing work was far beyond their qualifications. They were not trained. They were not contract
administrators. They never had been licensed contractors and were not trained building inspectors. But they acted
in all of those capacities.
In the two-year period that produced most of the shoddy and illegal work, four contractors were responsible for
more than 50% of the projects. A report for the county in 1996 found:
In April 1998, 33 of the dissatisfied homeowners filed a federal lawsuit against the county and eight contractors. In
late December 1999, the county agreed to a settlement requiring it to repair more than 250 contractor-damaged
homes, and pay for ancillary damages such as pain and suffering, inconvenience and loss of use.
While the county denies any wrongdoing, the agreement to settle is tantamount to admitting its culpability. To
determine if kickbacks or any other personal benefits were provided to any county employees or private
contractors, an independent investigation by someone outside county govt is called for.
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series: importance of home in lives of neediest Americans For foster youth, homes to grow into Businessmen house youth 'aging out' of system 7.23.02 Ina Jaffe NPR
A faith-based initiative, part program, part business, provides housing for youth who have aged out of foster care.
Dick Gochnauer & Gene Howard have changed Steve Rodriguez's life. When Steve "aged out" of foster care
at age 18, he was free. That means he was "free of Orange County's foster care system, free to find a place to live,
free to find a job, and free to find his own way in the world with hardly a dime to his name or a family to fall back
on." Steve ended up on the streets, like many teens in his situation. But recently, he found a home to return to,
thanks to Rising Tide. A new program that's more business plan than social service, Rising Tide provides
apartments for former foster youth.
Rising Tide has established 2 communities so far, and thinks 8t more would be needed in Orange County, given
the number of foster youth who will be leaving the system. Jaffe says the Rising Tide model creates stability not
only for the former foster youth, but also for the local Orangewood Children's foundation, a Rising Tide partner.
"The rents from the apartments provide a steady stream of money to pay for the services Orangewood provides,"
Jaffe says.
audio transcription In tight housing markets, like Orange County CA, finding an affordable apt is a
struggle for anyone. For foster children turning 18, it is impossible. Ready or not, they're essentially on their own.
Many become homeless, some go to jail. OC network of charities & community groups is overwhelmed by too
little know-how & not nearly enough money to give hundreds of foster youth who age out of the system every
year a leg up.
"When you walk the streets, the only friends you make or people who will take you in are drug-users or friends
whose parents don't watch who goes in & out of the house, a bad environment." Now, Steve smiles when he
says he stays home every evening, because, for the past few months, he's had a home, his first in 3 years. He
shares a simply furnished 2 bedroom in a rambling apt complex in Garden Grove, one of 3 dozen cities in notorious
OC sprawl. The apt is part of the Rising Tide pgm providing transitional housing for former foster kids.
There is nothing warm & cozy about the scheme; its blueprint is fundamentally a business plan, complete with
task assignments, timelines and a complicated flowchart
It started at Mariner's Church in
Irvine, a casual, contemporary congregation with ten thousand members. The 6 men who formed Rising Tide all
attend church here. Dick Gochnauer speaks for the group. "One of the things we're trying to explore here is to
develop a vehicle by which men & women of faith can give back beyond just giving funds."
Gochnauer says creating transitional housing for 200-300 emancipated foster wards seemed achievable. "There
aren't very good statistics on this, but about 25% of the youth, are gonna make it on their own. They're either
destined for college or a job and don't need the program. There is another bottom 25% that have significant
issues that need far more structure than we can provide."
[ It would conflict with profits flowing to elite minority if those most experienced at collective living use that expertise to establish a functional standard for aggregated social structure in place of the atomistically divided status quo. ] "They needed to be integrated into society. Therefore, they needed to be moved into a facility that's like anybody else would live. They needed to be part of a larger community. Rising Tide has 2 apartment communities so far. They're looking for more. It may take as many as 8 to meet the need. Gochnauer says they've been working on this since the late 1990s when housing for emancipated foster wards was a hot topic among OC social service workers. "Social service agency people involved in this issue decided the solution is that we'll get all these agencies together. A huge meeting spending lots of energy led to more meetings; by the end of the third meeting, we had purchased our first apartment building."
That was the Flanders Point apt complex in Tustin. Showing the pool & garden there, Orangewood Children's Fdtn head Gene Howard
says "Low income housing does not have to be a tenement kind of approach. This is a place anyone could feel
comfortable living."
Organizational partner in the project, Howard has worked with OC abused & neglected kids since 1980.
Teaching life skills to ones leaving foster care has been a big part of their mission. Lack of housing for them
sabotaged efforts to help. "You can't do well in school or maintain a job unless you have a stable housing situation.
You certainly can't from long lasting relationships that help you through the tough times when you're constantly
moving from one place to another. We found that most of our youth ended up couch surfing, finding a kind person,
imposing upon them awhile, wearing out their welcome then finding somebody else. I think housing is the key to
success for these youth."
The Rising Tide plan creates stability not only for the former foster kids but also for the Orangewood Children's
Fdtn. The rents from the apartments provide a steady stream of money to pay for services OCF provides. Over
time as the debt on the buildings goes down, rents rise with inflation, the money will create an endowment for
Orangewood. Howard says it will save his organization from the vicious fund raising cycle that plagues so many
charities. Tustin mayor Jeff Thomas says in generally affluent Orange County, cities don't always welcome affordable housing. "Part of the problem is public misunderstanding. They think the minute you start building affordable housing, immediately problems arise requiring police attention. Therefore, they tend to say we don't want that here." Nevertheless, City of Tustin decided to support the Flanders Point project. Without that approval, it would not have qualified for all-important low-interest bonds. Mayor Thomas says it is a trade off for the city. On one hand, affordable housing doesn't pay property taxes, so the city loses money. But he believes that is made up in other ways. "Sales tax rises when you attract people to the area. Secondarily, they renovated the project. We believe it improved the neighborhood." To seal the deal, Rising Tide pays the city an annual make-up fee almost equal to what the city would receive in property taxes anyway.
Budgets, bonds and the tax base are far from the minds of kids in the Rising Tide pgm. Gathering for their weekly
Wed. meeting, they talk about work, school and learning to trust one another. This night they sit in a bare space
inexplicably called the recreation room. Social worker Megan Bedsworth introduces a nervous young woman. She
has just applied to the Rising Tide program, though Megan tells everyone she hasn't been accepted yet.
As advice, one boy says "Rely on those around you. Ask them; they've been through it. I got out of class at 11am
on my 18th birthday; the group home said 'Goodbye. You're 18 & can't be here anymore.' I was lucky enough
to move in here next day."
Throughout the meeting, Steve Rodriguez sits silently with his arms folded across his chest, hands pinned under
his arms. After just a few months here, he isn't yet ready to offer advice. He is still mastering elementary
challenges of his own life. "I've got to get myself up, make my own meals. If I miss something, it's my fault. I've
been taking the bus to work so it's been a big new experience. A blessing, I'm lucky to get the chance to show
people I know if I got the chance to have a permanent place, I would go to work."
[ Social venture's so-called "know-how" is more of the same
predation that created market managed housing shortage. Instead of filling public needs with sound stewardship of
resources like long standing traditions of civilization such as public baths & mass transit, SoCal land
developers insisted on lobbying for building codes maximizing return on construction investment, intentionally or
not creating a society divided hence conquered by the isolation of every residence having its own dedicated bath,
kitchen & parking space required by legal lockstep.
Just as Michael Millken plundered the future by debasing long term investments via emphasis on speculative
trading of junk bonds, once he was released from prison, he returned to what he knew best, plundering the future
by means of social venture education programs pilfering public funds. |
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Orange County Register development coverage with this much money involved, they breed like lice :
National Low Income Housing Coalition |
Self-Help Homeownership Opportunity Program (SHOP) CA Housing Finance Agency California Redevelopment Association Dept of Housing & Community Development "California's principal housing agency" SD Access Ctr housing advocacy group Calif. Fdtn for Independent Living Ctrs |
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Blacks hit by housing costs leave SF behind 8.2.01 Evelyn Nieves NY Times
SAN FRANCISCO At 21 years old, Shanika Long is giving up on San Francisco, the city she was
born and reared in and would rather still call home. Her mother tells her of a time when blacks owned certain parts
of town, when the Fillmore District, for one, was a vibrant neighborhood with, she recalls, "a black-power- type
mentality." But, like the Fillmore's nickname, Harlem West, those days are history. And Ms. Long, a clerk at the
Labor Ready agency for temporary workers who has a 3-year-old daughter, says she wants to live where black
people can afford to buy houses and rear children. "I'm moving out and I'm feeling like I'm being pushed out of San
Francisco," she said. "The community now is, like, dead."
Other cities have had notable declines in their black populations over the last decade, Washington, for example.
But blacks in other cities appear to be migrating to the suburbs in a pattern of upward mobility. In San Francisco,
many are leaving because they have no choice Gentrification during the dot-com boom gave the city the distinction
as the most expensive in the country. Landlords
in black neighborhoods, much like others, cashed in, raising rents and evicting long-term tenants. The recent
technology bust has had little effect in lowering housing prices, real estate experts say.
For many blacks here, San Francisco is the sweetheart who loved 'em and left 'em, who promised the moon and
stars only to forget them when new blood came to town. In the Fillmore, there has been much talk over the years of
establishing a jazz district in honor of the jazz scene that emerged in the neighborhood from 1940 to 1950. It was
the heyday of the community, when the black population of the city grew tenfold as thousands of blacks came to
San Francisco looking for war jobs, many of them at the Navy shipyard at Hunters Point. But the jazz project has
been in the planning stages for years with little action. In 1997, Mayor Willie L. Brown Jr. promised to bring
Bayview-Hunters Point thousands of jobs, a new stadium for the San Francisco 49ers and a megamall to go along
with it. Voters approved the project in 1997, agreeing to finance it with $100 million in bonds. But the project was
stalled when the 49ers owner, Eddie De Bartolo Jr., became embroiled in legal troubles and lost the team to his
sister and her husband. The mall project is still in the talking stages.
Many blacks have little hope of things improving anytime soon. Even the black churches, the soul of the black
community, have lost their influence. The Rev. Cecil Williams, pastor of the Glide Memorial Methodist Church,
perhaps the sole remaining influential church, with more than 50 social and community programs, says that as
blacks have moved, the churches have lost their base. "Naturally, you're going to lose some of that vibrancy," said
Mr. Williams, who blamed "economics, first and foremost, the cost of living in this city", as the reason for the black
exodus. His church is thriving, with more than 1,500 members of all races, many of whom drive from as far as
Sacramento, 85 miles away. It also attracts busloads of tourists, drawn by the church's popular choir and band.
Some are moving to working-class cities like Vallejo, Richmond or Fairfield, which have significant black
populations and where it is still possible to buy a house for under $300,000. But census figures suggest that blacks
appear to be bypassing Oakland, where African-Americans represent over a third of the population. In the last
decade, that city, too, has seen a decline in its black population, from 163,500 out of 399,500 residents in 1990 to
142,400 out of 372, 200 residents in 2000, as gentrification forced some low-income blacks to the further
reaches of the area. Black-owned businesses in San Francisco have also left. Fred Jordan, a past president of the
San Francisco Black Chamber of Commerce, said: "There used to be 138 African-American businesses along
Fillmore Street. Last I heard there were 32 left and very hard to find."
Like some other African-American business owners in the city, Mr. Bennett complains that blacks lack the unity and
community spirit to achieve success here. "If we had that, in the Bayview-Hunters Point area," he said, "where
blacks own all the homes, all the apartments and we had a black business district going all up and down Third
Street, and we were a constituency that could put someone in office that is going to look out for our interests, we
wouldn't be having this conversation." African-Americans do own most of the houses in Bayview-Hunters Point, but
the prices of the modest starter house never kept pace with the rest of San Francisco's; homeowners who wanted
to trade up were forced to leave the Bay Area to afford something better. |
6.19.01 Carol Lloyd SFGate
"Hello, my name is Bo Derek, and I live at the Mission Hotel," says the statuesque blond in a baseball cap. "As a
HIV-positive transsexual I can say that in a lot of the SRO hotels, the bathrooms are really filthy, there are rats and roaches and I got spider bites all up my legs, on my body, on my breasts. ..."
But I am here to see the folk that people these hotels and listen to their stories and their demands. I hope to
glimpse the human face for which something as bureaucratic as a "sprinkler ordinance" could mean the difference between life or death. According to the housing advocacy group Mission Agenda, 15,000 to 20,000 San Franciscans reside in the 520 SRO hotels scattered around the city. The first thing that strikes me about this group is that they are extremely diverse. Like male-to-female transsexual Bo Derek, each individual seems to represent a world of his or her own. They are young and old, black and white, but also Vietnamese, East Indian, El Salvadoran, Chinese. They are thin and fat, strapping strong and carrying canes, dressed in shamanic garb and business suits. They are clean-cut, scruffy, dreadlocked; eloquent, rambling, understated.
So if these characters seem just a tad unhinged, just a little stressed out, don't assume it's because they are crazy. Some of them are mentally ill, and plenty of them have substance abuse problems. But whether they are junkies or drunks or just regular guys who are down on their luck, the fact is that they are living in the most surreal situation that our city of oh-so-surreal estate provides. What strikes me as so bizarre is that today in SF, one of the most progressive cities in the world, and an urban center at the end of a massive economic boom, these people must still be fighting for basic rights like living in buildings that meet basic health codes and being able to have a friend spend the night. Now that SRO activist Chris Daly, who birthed his political career over the issue of "musical rooms," a practice whereby hotel landlords evict tenants after 29 days before they are entitled to rent-control protections, has become Supervisor Chris Daly, it's easy to imagine that finally the tables have started to turn, and that SRO residents will be afforded the protections and rights they deserve.
Later, when I ask Heaney what he meant by the "cartel," he says that because the Raymond residents were very organized and a tight-knit community the private SRO landlords saw them as potential troublemakers. Heaney claims he overheard a phone call in which one hotel manager warned another manager to avoid giving housing to people from the Raymond Hotel. Whether Heaney's precise claims are true, his suspicion about a private landlord cartel is a common one. And since 70 % of the SROs are run by people named Patel, many of whom are related, such facts fuel the notion than there is a concerted lobby of SRO owners who stick together. The most common charge against the landlords is that they help through neglect or outright arson to set fire to their buildings, although the vast number of fire investigations are inconclusive, and in no way end up pointing fingers at landlords. SROs have always had a high incidence of fires, but the past few years have been especially bad. Since 1997, 840 SRO units have been destroyed by fire. Such numbers, coupled with the precipitous rise in rental rates and the financial motivation for landlords to get rid of tenants with rent control, has led some residents and their advocates to coin the term "eviction by fire." While this phrase doesn't actually accuse the owners of arson, it does subtly point out the financial advantages of fire. As Ron Grossheart, resident at Mission Hotel and staff member of Mission Agenda, tells me over a soft drink: "With capitalism, landlords have a lot of motivation to burn down their buildings. Eviction by fire is not just a progressive slogan but a reality."
Are vermin, the threat of fires and unfair laws like visiting fees the only grievances? Unfortunately, no. Like many
institutions that mix an unseemly cocktail of city bureaucracy, capitalism and poor people, the most complicated
issues seem to be organizational ones. "Please, I beg of you, *please*," says one tearful woman to Chris Daly.
"Don't let the master-leasing program end." Like many of the speakers at the hearing, the woman objects to the
mayor's cuts in funding for a program wherein nonprofits like City Housing lease and manage privately owned
SROs. She claims that City Housing, under the leadership of Randy Shaw, has done a remarkable job in
transforming vile and infested "dens of iniquity" into decent, respectable places to live. The residents and nonprofits were petitioning the board to fight the mayor on this issue. |
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Sophie Maxwell, a city supervisor who represents Bayview-Hunters Point, said projects in the works should
improve the neighborhood. "Economic revitalization is what we're looking at," Ms. Maxwell said. "We're losing
numbers so we're trying to identify and work on the assets in this community."
The neighborhood's open space, parking places, vacant lots are all assets that developers are exploring, she said. Eric Martin, a 43-year-old salesman at the Record Shop in Bayview, said Asians, whose numbers are steadily climbing here, could teach blacks how to move forward. "The Filipinos come in and they got five families living in one house," Mr. Martin said. "That's how they do it, how they can afford it. Then they buy the house, then they buy another house. They got unity. Brothers ain't like that. It used to be like that way back in the 60's and 70's." The major obstacle to attracting new life has been the Navy shipyard, which brought so many thousands of blacks to San Francisco during the war. Since the Defense Department closed the shipyard in 1974, the neighborhood has been overshadowed by its aging hulking buildings, several of which are contaminated with radioactive waste. Some see toxic waste made Bayview-Hunters Point the subject of scorn & ridicule as the one reason the black population has not been pushed out of its stronghold. |
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Rent / own in city of New Orleans
vacant / occupied |
/ price range 2004
|
| per 2000 Census map data; National Assn. of Realtors median prices; 2004 Census Bureau estimates |
In some ways, Hurricane Katrina seems to have taken a vibrant real estate market and made it hotter. Large sections of the city are underwater, but that's only increasing the demand for dry houses. In flooded areas, speculators are trying to buy properties on the cheap, hoping that the redevelopment of New Orleans will start a boom.
This land rush has long-term implications in a city where many of the poorest residents were flooded out. It raises the question of what sort of housing, if any, will be available to those without a six-figure salary. If New Orleans ends up a high-priced enclave, without a mix of cultures, races and incomes, something vital may be lost.
"There's a public interest question here," said Wash.D.C. think tank Urban Land Institute sr vp Ann Oliveri. "You don't have to abdicate the city to whoever shows up."
For now, though, it's a seller's market, at least for habitable homes. 2 months ago, Steve Young bought a 2 bedroom condo in New Orleans' Garden District as an investment for $145,000. Last month, he was transferred by Shell Oil to Houston. Last week, he put the condo on the market. In a posting on Craigslist, an Internet classified advertising site, Young asked $220,000. He got a dozen serious expressions of interest, enough so he's no longer actively pursuing a buyer.
"I'm pretty positive the market's going to move up from here," he said. So, to their surprise, are many others.
"I thought this storm was the end of the city," said New Orleans-based Latter & Blum president Arthur Sterbcow, one of the biggest real estate brokerages on the Gulf Coast. "If anyone had told me two weeks ago that I'd be getting the calls and e-mails I'm getting, I would have thought he was ready for the psychiatric ward."
Messages from those wanting to buy houses , whether intact or flooded, and commercial properties are outrunning those who want to sell by a factor of 20, said Sterbcow, who has set up temporary quarters in his firm's Baton Rouge office.
"We're pressing everyone into service just to answer the phones," he said.
These eager would-be buyers may be drawing their inspiration from Lower Manhattan, which proved a bonanza for those smart enough to buy condos there immediately after 9.11.01.
Of course, in southern Louisiana, everything is hypothetical for the moment. The storm destroyed many property records and displaced buyers, sellers, agents and title firms, so no deals are actually being done. Insurance companies haven't started to settle claims yet, much less determine how, or whether, they will insure New Orleans in the future. The city hasn't even been drained.
But people are thinking ahead, influenced by a single factor: the belief that hundreds of billions of dollars in govt aid is going to create a boomtown. The people administering that aid will need somewhere to live, as will those doing the rebuilding. So will employees of companies lured back to the area, and the service people that attend to them.
All this will lead to what Sterbcow delicately calls a "reorientation" of the city.
"Everyone I talked to has said, 'Let's start with a clean sheet of paper, fix it and get it right,' " he said. "Some of the homes here were only held together by the termites."
What the owners of the city's estimated 150,000 flooded houses will get out of "reorientation" is unclear, especially if the houses were in bad shape and uninsured.
Some black New Orleans residents say dourly that they know what's coming. Melvin Gilbert, a maintenance crew chief in his 60s, stood outside an elegant hotel in the French Quarter this week and recalled how the neighborhood had been gentrified. He remembered half a century ago when the French Quarter had a substantial number of black residents.
"Then the Caucasians started offering them $10,000 for their homes," he said. "Well, they only bought the places for $2,000, so they took it and ran."
The white residents restored the homes, which rose quickly in value. Gilbert said he expected the same dynamic when the floodwaters receded in the heavily black neighborhoods east of downtown.
The question of who should own New Orleans is already sparking tension. The first posting seeking New Orleans property "in any condition or location" was placed on Craigslist on 8.29.05, while the storm still raged. With small variation, it was repeated numerous times over the next week.
The process of tracking down owners of deluged houses is greatly slowed by the absence of records. It's not going to be easy to find these people, said Farris, the Baton Rouge real estate agent. What would she pay for a ruined house? Farris demurred, saying it was too early to tell, but probably only the value of the land, if that.
Though the French Quarter may be back to life within months, outlying districts such as North Bywater and the Lower 9th Ward will take years, if they ever do. Investors might hope this is the equivalent of buying land on the outskirts of a boomtown, but it's not a guarantee.
For one thing, there are already proposals to convert certain flooded areas, including some water-logged neighborhoods, into parks. Under the Supreme Court's recent ruling broadening the definition of eminent domain, speculators could be forced to sell their properties to the govt.
That would be a great outcome for many homeowners in the parishes south and east of New Orleans that bore the brunt of the storm. 6 months ago, Re/Max real estate agent Todd La Valla bought a 4 unit apartment building for $59,000 in the community of Buras, an unincorporated hamlet in Plaquemines Parish 55 miles southeast of New Orleans.
The tenants evacuated in the storm, or at least La Valla hopes they did. He's sure the building is gone too, like just about everything else in the area. La Valla had no insurance, which means his $10,000 investment is probably a complete loss.
Yet where there's disaster, there's opportunity.
"I've had calls from investors in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, New York looking to buy property," La Valla said. "This is going to be hard for the poor, the elderly, those that didn't have insurance. But it's going to be great for some people."
At first, Lucia Blacksher thought she was in the bad news group. In June, she and her boyfriend put their entire savings, about $35,000, into their dream house, a century-old shotgun Victorian in the New Orleans neighborhood of Mid-City. When the storm came, they fled to Blacksher's parents' house in Birmingham AL. The house, which cost $225,000, is partially flooded. Her boyfriend, a Virginian who figures he's seen enough of hurricanes to last him the rest of his life, wants to move. The insurance company won't return calls.
Last week, Blacksher was worried she would lose her beloved house either to foreclosure or a forced sale. One of those bottom-feeders would get it. She was more optimistic Wednesday. Somehow, she would get through this.
"Because the house survived the storm, it will be even more valuable," she said. "You could offer me $300,000 and I wouldn't take it. No way."
San Diego County's housing market cost a lot to enter as 2002 began, prices having soared for the seventh straight year. For December, the county's median price for all housing sales stood at a record $286,000. And for all transactions for the full year 2001, the median was pegged by DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla at a
record $268,000. At the neighborhood level, buyers are snatching up the relative bargains that still could be had.
But from Boulevard to Bonsall, from costly coastal enclaves to mountain cabins, agents said there was little of the buying frenzy, with multiple offers for many properties, that had characterized the market a year earlier.
San Diegans shopped carefully, rarely panicked and savored interest rates that let them stretch their housing
dollars further than any time since the 1960s.
Central San Diego San Diegans who flocked to the central core to buy homes last year were
rewarded with some of the highest appreciation rates and lowest prices in the county. Sandy Booth of New Visions Real Estate in Golden Hill said the areas east of downtown attracted first-time buyers who like the lower prices and architectural variety in the neighborhoods developed from the 1880s on. "I think it's still a mixed bag," she said. "There are some fabulous streets and also some areas where it's densely populated, so it's a pretty big split here. It's very eclectic and kind of a melting pot over here." Logan Heights offered the lowest median price for existing single-family homes, $148,500, and the fourth highest appreciation rate, 20.9%, of any central neighborhood with 100 or more sales. La Jolla had the highest price, $915,000 and the lowest appreciation, 7%. In downtown & Mission Valley, condominiums vastly outnumber single-family homes. Prices for condos were off 1.4% to $324,500 downtown while Mission Valley condominiums saw a 20.4% increase to $155,000. Beach communities from Pacific Beach to Coronado experienced healthy gains of 10% to 15%, while inland suburbs from Scripps Ranch to Del Cerro recorded similar increases.
East County Spring Valley led the price rises in East County with a 22.9% increase to $220,000 in areas with at least 100 resale houses. Dave Underwood, owner of Real Estate & More, said first-time buyers, especially families with school-age children, are shopping east because of relatively low prices, larger lots and better-than-average schools. "You'll find spiffy stuff that's nice and ready to go," he said, "and you'll find other stuff that needs some spit and polish. Predominantly, I'd say the average home is livable but certainly could use some upgrades. People in this market will not spend a great deal of money to make it shine before they get rid of it, because there's so little housing anyway." For sellers, there is a hesitancy to place their homes on the market, Underwood said, because of the cost of buying a replacement house.
North County Inland Prices rose more modestly in North County, both coastal and inland, than
elsewhere, perhaps because neighborhoods saw big run-ups after the local economy turned upward in the mid-
1990s. Typical was San Marcos, where prices in two ZIP codes rose 14% and 14.7% last year to between $250,000 and $285,000. "Most of the buyers are San Diego people who are looking for affordable housing and a relatively easy commute to different locations," said Vicki Stowe, co-owner of Re-Max Prime Properties. "San Marcos, although inland, still has some pretty parts, probably 5 miles from the beach. It has a diverse climate and also a very diverse population." The presence of CSU San Marcos also drew many buyers desiring to be near a university campus, she said.
North County Coast Home sales in the county's pricier areas, especially the north coastal region,
clearly softened and in some cases showed steep declines. Yet in most of Oceanside, sales were not as flat as the rest of the coastal area, although housing costs still posted a healthy increase. The county's northernmost coastal city, Oceanside is one of the few areas in close proximity to the ocean where housing is still considered affordable. In two out of the three ZIP codes in Oceanside, resales declined by less than 5%, compared with double-digit drops in many other north coast communities. "It appears to me that this North County coast, it's all getting softer because of price, fewer buyers and not to mention what's going on in the economy," said real estate broker Jeff Wagner of Excel Properties. "Low interest rates have held the prices up or kept them status quo because you're getting more for the dollar. But if we have any rise in interest rates, it should depreciate pretty quickly. "It takes two strong dual incomes to get into those (coastal area) homes and we're just out of buyers."
South County In the South Bay, sales dropped less than in much of the rest of the county. Most
notably, the older sections of Chula Vista showed only a modest drop in sales, while the eastern suburbs of the city saw an uptick in sales activity last year. As in East County, affordability is driving home buyers to the area, say real estate experts. "Sales are doing well because people who've been here for a while are selling their homes and buying newer homes here, and people who've been renting are buying relatively less expensive homes in the older parts of Chula Vista," said Clarke Dennison, owner of Dennison Realty. "A lot of people from North County are now looking to South County because you can get so much more for what you pay." Activist tries a grab for jurist's property A foe of the high court's eminent domain ruling wants to apply it to seize David H. Souter's home. 6.30.05 Benjamin Weyl L.A. Times ã
Wash.D.C. An activist angered by a Supreme Court property-rights decision proposed this week that the town of Weare, N.H., give Justice David H. Souter a taste of his own legal medicine. Souter, who owns a home in the south-central New Hampshire town, voted with the majority last week in the case of Kilo vs. City of New London. The court found that the Connecticut city could use the power of eminent domain to seize private property to make way for an urban redevelopment project that would provide broad economic benefits to the community.
The proposal to seize Souter's modest home, though it may be far-fetched, has gained support from conservatives across the country. It showed up in a letter faxed to a Weare town official Monday. In the letter, Logan Darrow Clements, a Los Angeles resident who is described on his company's website as chief executive of Freestar Media, proposed building a hotel on Souter's property.
A spokeswoman for the Supreme Court, Kathy Arberg, declined to comment Wednesday. Those familiar with Souter's home site said it was an unlikely spot for a hotel.
The plan "highlights just how awful this decision was, and how divorced it was from any sense of justice and rights," Norquist said. He said that the New London case showed the importance of a president's Supreme Court nominations, and predicted that it would ignite a backlash.
Clements faxed his letter to Charles Meany, code enforcement officer for Weare, a community of 6,865. |
Riskiest place to buy a home 4.6.06 Will Carless Voice of San Diego
The area's home prices have a 60% chance of dropping, one of many factors making San Diego the riskiest real estate market in the nation, according to a quarterly report put out by a California mortgage insurer.
"You guys are leading the nation; congratulations," remarked UCLA Anderson Forecast sr analyst Chris Thornberg. Last year at this time, the quarterly report ranked the San Diego region as the fifth-riskiest market in the nation. That report put Boston as the riskiest.
The report bases its ratings for each individual market on 3 factors: How well the local economy is doing; how much and how quickly home prices are appreciating; and the affordability of housing in that market. San Diego's took a hard knock because of the third criterion. The area's homes are among the least affordable in the nation, according to PMI's data. People who buy them are more likely to default on their mortgages despite the relatively strong local economy.
The area is also suffering from a slowed price appreciation. In the last few years, San Diego's risk factor has been tempered by consistent price increases. But those increases dropped dramatically from last quarter, compounding the poor score the area received in the report.
Even if prices do drop, London said, that's only going to open the door to a lot of people who have been watching the market from the sidelines, unwilling to get into the action. If prices drop, even slightly, he said, there are a lot of people waiting to buy.
"Some of the exotic (loan) products transfer a lot of the risks to the borrower, so you really need to gauge what amount of risk you are comfortable taking on. Are you comfortable having a lot of risk in your mortgage and a lot of risk in your market area?"
University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Ctr for Real Estate economics prof. Alan Gin said the report is certainly worth considering for home-buyers before they take out a mortgage, but he pointed out that the riskiness of a market is not likely to be the defining factor for a potential buyer.
S.D. seeks to buy land for urban parks
Get ready for the greening of downtown San Diego. The city has opened negotiations with downtown property owners to buy land for a series of urban parks. The plan is to build at least 7 parks & plazas over the next 10 years for an estimated $212 million. The money would come from property taxes, proposed fees paid by builders and possibly the transfer of development rights.
The parks are part of the Downtown Community Plan Update, a blueprint for growth. A committee of city officials
and downtown property and business owners is drafting the update, which is expected to be approved by the City Council next year. Councilman Michael Zucchet, whose district includes downtown, said he expects the council to approve a piece of that plan, the Downtown Parks Master Plan, by October (2004).
With developers still rushing to buy land for condominium projects, it is crucial to start identifying parcels for
parks while they are still available, said community plan update subcommittee chair Rob Quigley. "To wait
even another year might be disastrous," Quigley said.
"I think downtown deserves community parks just like every other neighborhood," Zucchet said. Few would
disagree with that, but creating parks in the city's booming urban core is no easy task.
Under the deal envisioned by London, instead of cash the owner would receive the right to develop a project
elsewhere downtown that would be much more dense than would otherwise be allowed on the land she now
owns. She also would be able to sell her development rights to another builder on the private market.
Hall sees potential deals working this way: Say there's a block that could theoretically hold 200 condominium units under current law. The agency buys half of that land for a park and gives the owner the right to build all 200 units on the remaining half, doubling the density rights on the remaining portion.
Not every land owner is expected to be as enthusiastic as Frederick. Although agency officials said they'd prefer to avoid condemning land and taking it through eminent domain, that tool remains at their disposal. "I think, ultimately, it will be necessary with some of them," said contracting & public works manager David Allsbrook, one of the agency's negotiators.
Downtown has had parks for about as long as San Diego has been a city. The green space known today as
Pantoja Park in the Marina District has operated as a park since the mid-1850s. Horton Park, next to Horton Plaza, has been around nearly as long.
Cafe blocks city land-grab
On July 30, the Michigan Supreme Court stuck a dagger into govt's abusive use of eminent domain, seizing
property from one private owner and handing it to a richer owner in the name of economic development. Although California law differs from Michigan's, the case could one day help thwart San Diego's so-called "public/private partnerships" that redistribute property from the poor and powerless to the rich and politically connected
That line of nonreasoning is exactly what the highest Michigan court shot down 7.30.04. Frostrom intends to put the Michigan case to good use. Mesdaq has one suit against the city in federal court, another in superior court. The city is suing him in state court. The Michigan court's move "was a wonderful decision," says Frostrom, who will argue in federal court that the city cannot go forward with the condemnation because it is unconstitutional. On Friday, she asked the court for a preliminary injunction blocking the city from seizing the property.
In 8.3.04 editorial, Wall St Journal noted "economic development argument has essentially vitiated what the
Founders intended by putting property rights in the Constitution in the first place: to prevent the rich & powerful from manipulating the law to take property from those less well connected."
"It was such a horrible case," says Loyola Law School emeritus law prof. Gideon Kanner in Los Angeles, who
represented Sisters of Mercy Hospital. Govt spent "millions and millions of dollars" and turned the land over to
General Motors for a fraction of the total cost. "It was supposed to revitalize Detroit and did no such thing."
There have been other successes, says Kanner. In 2002, the Illinois Supreme Court knocked down an attempt by a developmental authority to seize private land for racetrack parking. Kanner won the biggest California victory. 3 years ago, the Lancaster Redevelopment Agency tried to seize the property of a 99 Cents Only Store so that a neighboring discounter, Costco, could expand. Lancaster noted that 99 Cents produced only $40,000 a year in sales taxes, while Costco produced $400,000.
He is hoping a case against New London CT, which seized well-maintained homes so Pfizer could build a plant, hotel, and condos for its employees, makes it to the U.S. Supreme Court.
City atty Bruce W. Beach says this argument was "discussed & rejected" by involved administrative agencies, including Centre City.
The classic San Diego case was in the late 1990s, when the Frost family wanted to develop a hotel in the ballpark district. The Frosts had a developer lined up. The hotel could be built without the city having to pay condemnation costs. Nonetheless, Centre City &amnp; city council ganged up to award the land by condemnation to Padres baseball team majority owner John Moores .
One reason citizens will vote on a hotel-tax increase this fall is that the Padres didn't live up to promises to
construct revenue-generating hotels and other commercial structures, says former councilmember Bruce
Henderson.
Cash-strapped S.D.'s big asset: real estate
The city of San Diego suffers from cognitive dissonance over its financial condition. Consider these two conflicting appraisals, both of which are valid:
Rubbish; the city is a municipal Midas. All this poor-mouthing completely overlooks the gold in the ground. San Diego owns about 16,000 acres, much of it prime property. Taken as a whole, this unusually large municipal portfolio is worth billions, according to the city's real estate manager Will Griffith.
To be sure, every city-owned property, from SeaWorld to the Fairbanks Ranch Country Club, from Qualcomm Stadium to Belmont Park, poses its own cranky challenge, including surreal leases. Nevertheless, they're real assets in a fiscal crisis. Consider, for example, 2 North County properties: The San Pasqual Valley and the rustic village on the shore of Lake Hodges that used to be called Campo Del Dios, or Land of God.
Annexed by San Diego in the early '60s, the San Pasqual Valley was valuable for its underground water. For the past 40 years, it's been leased as an agricultural preserve. Councilman Brian Maienschein recently unveiled a vision plan to protect this jewel from commercial development. But Mission Valley was once zoned agricultural, too. Land where my great-great uncle ran a dairy is now overshadowed by Qualcomm and IKEA. How much would 11,000 acres next to the Wild Animal Park be worth to a consortium of developers? |
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Lawmakers rethink land-seizure laws
High court ruling leads to groundswell in state, proposed moratorium
8.17.05 Michael Gardner SD UT
Sacramento Govt's historic power to take land has been exercised to clear out slumlords and revitalize decaying downtowns, as well as manipulated to uproot homeowners and mom and pop stores to make way for mega-malls and high-rises. Hit with scattered horror stories but convinced from her experiences on the San Diego City Council that eminent domain can be a valuable tool for progress, state Sen. Christine Kehoe says it's time to rethink how local govts use, and sometimes abuse, their broad powers of condemnation.
The San Diego Democrat has introduced legislation that includes an immediate 2 year moratorium on seizing owner-occupied housing under the banner of eminent domain. In doing so, Kehoe aligns with a growing number of lawmakers, both liberal and conservative, who are demanding a fresh look at eminent domain after a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision that upheld a Connecticut city's right to evict middle-class homeowners to pave the way for a waterfront hotel and convention center to support a $300 million research facility for Pfizer.
Led by Kehoe, the Senate Local Govt Committee will open a review today of redevelopment law and the impact of the court's June 23 ruling in Kelo v. City of New London.
John Shirey, who represents redevelopment agencies statewide, said the decision simply affirmed the status quo.
For half a century, municipal govts in California have had the ability to condemn land as long as it is legally defined as blighted and the owner is justly compensated at fair market value. Generally, those govts have exercised their power to obtain land needed for public roads, schools and hospitals.
For example, neighbors pleaded with the city of San Diego for help cleaning up 2 sites in the East Village neighborhood. Petco Park also helped give that area a makeover. A park has replaced a seedy motel in Little Italy. Without the power of eminent domain, Allsbrook said, the rebirth of urban centers such as downtown San Diego never would have occurred. Shirley argued that eminent domain helps cities provide affordable housing and contain sprawl by encouraging in-fill development.
His is not an isolated case. California City in Kern County is in court defending its condemnation of 15,000 acres to develop a Hyundai test track. Oakland wants to take over two independent auto repair and supply businesses so that a Sears auto shop can open on the site a block away from its parent retail center. The Cottonwood Christian Center in Cypress was forced into a land swap because the city wanted a Costco instead of a church on the original building site.
The Supreme Court's Kelo decision, critics contend, will only encourage more abuse.
Assemblywoman Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Niguel, said: "If public purposes can be defined as any project that increases the local govt's tax revenue, who is to say that people's homes cannot be subjected to eminent domain, even if the only purpose is to build an auto mall or a shopping center?"
Homeowners are outraged by threat of demolition
Debate over govt's right to take private property prompted by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling hovers at the very doorstep of Jody Carey and Dennis Wood, who live in a 1000 sq ft house at the edge of a canyon in City Heights. No sooner did they buy the property for $260,000 last year and spend $200,000 rebuilding it, complete with a built-in beer keg tap in the kitchen, two limestone-trimmed spa bathtubs and maple floors throughout, than they received a notice from a little-known agency that their home and 187 others nearby might be demolished.
Kehoe said her 2002 bill was intended to help revitalize a section of City Heights, not to reduce the property rights of affected homeowners.
What is unnerving City Heights residents are plans to build replacement housing for the 120 homes that were demolished to make way for the school. The agency proposes to take 188 more homes on 30 acres and then build up to 509 apartments, condominiums and townhomes. Not only do the affected residents complain that they have not been kept informed, but they also argue that residents in the affected area are upgrading their homes.
Nearby are 3 single-family homes built by Habitat for Humanity last year that also face demolition. Cheryl Keenan, executive director of the faith-based housing agency, said she would help the Habitat buyers relocate but would not have halted the project even if she had known about the redevelopment plans.
While they await further action, the homeowners' ability to sell their homes has been hurt by the threat of demolition. Linda Chase, the real estate agent who helped Carey, Wood and Lazarus buy their homes, said she is now steering clients away from the area.
Jay Powell, executive director of the nonprofit City Heights Community Development Corp., has been following the rebuilding proposal closely and had hoped his agency would get the go-ahead to develop the block immediately east of the school site. Sal Salas, chairman of the model-school agency board and the San Diego Housing Commission, said the plan may have to be scaled back. As for the question of eminent domain, Salas acknowledged that his unelected board has the power to condemn private property and owners have no right of appeal to the City Council or school board. |
12.26.01 Colin Joyce News Telegraph
Tokyo Tokyo's Ueno Park was once famed for its springtime cherry blossom. Nowadays, it is more
familiar as the home of a swelling tent city housing part of Japan's growing army of homeless. Homelessness
Japanese-style is different from the Western experience. Despite the profusion of tents, the park area occupied by
them is impeccably tidy. Fallen leaves are swept into little piles and the hoards of aluminium cans that the
homeless collect to sell for recycling are covered & neatly stacked. The residents, mostly men in their forties
& fifties, build their dwellings with care from tarpaulin & cardboard. The broken handles of discarded
umbrellas are used as tent pegs, and as with Japanese homes, people take off their shoes before entering.
A small number of unemployed laborers have lived in the fringes of Ueno Park for years, but a study recently
revealed that they are being joined by an increasing number of former salarymen. According to some estimates
around 10% of Japanese homeless were once company managers, the men who provided the engine room of
Japan's post-war boom. Although many are former employees of small manufacturing firms rather than elite
corporations, their new status underlines the gravity of the country's decade-long recession . As unemployment has
risen to record levels, so has homelessness, and notoriously cautious govt estimates put the numbers at around
24,000, a rise of almost 20% in 2 years. Now Japan has at last begun to deal with the issue of homelessness. Local authorities have built temporary shelters and the govt of PM Junichiro Koizumi has put money into a better safety net for the unemployed. Tokyo Metropolitan govt this year said homelessness was a problem of society, not an individual failure. Some Japanese still have a revulsion for the homeless and in recent years there has been a series of unprovoked attacks on them. However, Makoto Yuasa, an activist for the homeless, says such attitudes are becoming rarer and that the rise in homelessness has paradoxically given him hope. "Govt has begun to deal with the problem and media often debate the issue," he said. "Homelessness has become so common that it can't be ignored." |
Homeless problem grows as nation battles recession 10.17.01 Clay Chandler & Akiko Kashiwagi Wash.Post Foreign Service pE1 When Nagamine began his nighttime rounds five years ago, the park had no more than a few dozen full-time residents and he could look in on everyone in about 45 minutes. But now that the community includes more than 700 shanties, his reconnaissance takes at least three hours. "You never know," says the deputy park director, Tsutomu Morisawa, who has spoken with hundreds of those living on the grounds. "One day you're off to work in a white shirt & tie. The next day you find yourself out here sleeping under a plastic sheet." Tent settlements like the one encircling Osaka Castle are among the most jarring manifestations of this nation's struggle to break the grip of a decade-long economic slump. Even before 9.11.01, residents of the world's second-largest economy were girding for a period of painful retrenchment as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made good on his vow to rein in govt spending & businesses pushed ahead with long-deferred restructuring plans. Corporate profits were plunging. The nation's famed trade surplus had receded for 14 straight months. Unemployment topped 5% a postwar record.
Now, many analysts warn of a global slowdown that could tip Japan -- already the weakest of the world's industrial
economies, into a deeper & more protracted recession, which in turn could exacerbate the global downturn.
In early September, private experts surveyed by Consensus Economics Inc., a London-based forecasting firm, said
they expected the Japanese economy to contract slightly this year, then manage a modest recovery in 2002. But
the Consensus group now predicts that, on average, Japan's economy will shrink by at least half a%age
point this year and another half-point the following year. Many analysts fear there will be no genuine turnaround
until late 2003. "If support from the U.S. economy declines, Japan will probably experience another downward leg
of falling production, income, investment & consumer spending," Jeffery Young, an economist at Nikko
Salomon Smith Barney, warned in a recent memo to clients. |
Days later, Daiichi, with nearly 400 employees & $56 million in liabilities, followed suit. About two-thirds of
those workers will lose their jobs. For middle-aged workers at big companies, the ax has yet to fall. But they are
fearful. Last month, in rapid succession, a parade of giant Japanese manufacturers, including Fujitsu Ltd., Toshiba
Corp., Matsushita Electric Industrial Corp. & Hitachi Ltd., announced sweeping staff cuts, with many promising
to eliminate 10% or even 20% of their global workforces. Most companies said they will slash overseas jobs
first, even though those workers are less costly. The few companies that plan to shed Japanese employees said
they would make the reductions gradually through attrition & early retirement programs.
But shareholders -- especially foreigners, who hold an increasing stake in Japan's leading industrial companies, are
howling for deeper cuts. Ikuo Matsuhashi, an industry analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., predicted that within
the next few months, Japan's electronics giants will announce far more aggressive retrenchments, this time
targeting Japanese workers. With losses mounting, "they have no choice," he said. "They're going have to make
reductions beyond the scale of what we've seen." 2 months ago, Matsushita's president, Kunio Nakamura, fueled
speculation that the Osaka manufacturer was preparing plans to force workers in their fifties & sixties into
retirement when he declared that Matsushita didn't need "hard-headed" older employees who couldn't be trained to
use computers.
Matsushita officials scrambled to reassure Japanese employees that the company had no plans to push out senior
workers. But Nakamura's remarks gained wide media attention here because they contrasted so starkly with the
philosophy of Matsushita's founder, Konosuke Matsushita, who is revered as a pioneer of Japan's vaunted "lifetime
employment" system. At age 49, Yoshio Anan is learning the hard way that there may be little difference between
taking early retirement & getting laid off. Until this past February, Anan worked on the assembly line at a
Nissan Motor Co. affiliate in Kyoto. When Nissan decided two years ago to close the facility as part of global
restructuring, the plant's 1,500 employees were obliged to choose between early retirement or jobs at a Nissan
factory in Kanagawa, nearly 300 miles away. Anan, a 31-year Nissan veteran, was one of about 600 workers who
chose to leave the company and search for work close to home. But after eight months of pounding the pavement,
his unemployment benefits are running out and his career options are dwindling.
"If I'm not too picky, I suppose I could probably get a job as a security guard," he said. "But the pay would be barely
half what I was making. I knew things would be tough
but I never imagined the economy would be this
bad." Meanwhile, to avoid laying off current employees, companies have drastically scaled back their hiring of
new recruits. The jobless rate for Japanese men in their early twenties has climbed above 10% Yoshihide
Sorimachi, forensic pathologist for the city of Osaka, argued that the rising unemployment rate has taken a heavier
psychological toll in Japan than in other countries because, in this society, job status is the preeminent measure of
self-worth. In 1998, when the number of suicides in Osaka jumped to 900, from 500 the previous year, Sorimachi
noticed that a large proportion of the suicides he examined at the city morgue were laid-off middle-aged men.
Sorimachi noted that, in contrast to many other industrial societies, Japan's suicide rate rises & falls almost in
lock step with unemployment statistics. "Many Japanese workers feel that if they lose their jobs, they have lost their
reason to live," he said.
Here in Kansai, the west-central region encompassing Osaka, the job picture is particularly grim. The economy's
most troubled sectors, electronics, light manufacturing, textiles, retailing & construction, account for a
disproportionate share of local commerce. In many ways, work conditions in Osaka offer a preview of what awaits
the rest of the nation if Japan's leaders fail to reverse the economy's slide. The unemployment rate here is roughly
1.5%age points above the national average. City officials estimate the number of people sleeping in Osaka's
streets, parks or other public spaces at more than 10,000, almost twice the homeless population of Tokyo, despite
Osaka's smaller size.
At Osaka Castle, many of the tent dwellers held jobs until just a few years ago and cling to habits of cleanliness
& order. Most pay regular visits to the nearby sento, or public bath. Many keep bank accounts; a few own cell
phones. The majority earn enough to survive by scouring the city streets for aluminum cans, which can be
redeemed at recycling centers for a little over 2 cents each. Old-timers say they used to be able to make as much
as $30 a day collecting cans. But now there's a lot more competition, and a successful 5-hour foray typically yields
about $16. The tent dwellers battle frost in winter, mosquitoes in summer and loneliness all year round. Most of all,
there is the nagging stigma of failure. "My grandchildren live just across town, but they don't come see me
anymore," says an unemployed roofer who declined to give his name.
The Osaka govt has begun building crude shelters around the city so that the rising tide of displaced workers will
have a place to go. Last year, the Labor Ministry launched a number of "self-reliance centers" giving some
homeless people free room & board for 6 months, providing them breathing space to search for work.
Together these two programs have helped lower the number of tents outside Osaka Castle by about 40% from
the summer's peak of nearly 1,200. But Nagamine fears that if the economy remains sour, the encampment will
swell again. Nagamine, who has lived here since giving up his job in 1993, first came to the park to look after an old
friend who lost his job after injuring his leg in a traffic accident. The friend took to drinking and died 2 years
later.
But Nagamine found plenty of others who needed his help. He emerged as the park's unofficial mayor several
years ago after helping to resolve a payment dispute between homeless day laborers & some scrap dealers.
Charitable groups trust him to run the biweekly soup kitchen. Police rely on him to keep the peace. A recent
Saturday morning found him seeking to boost the morale of park inhabitants by organizing a baseball team.
"I'm not necessarily here because I like it, but what else can I do?" he asks. "There are all these newcomers here.
They don't have any experience with being homeless. Somebody has to look out for them."
Before returning to Washington on Monday, Bush is to stop in Atlanta to promote his broad housing agenda, which
he summarized as "empowering people to help themselves, and to help one another" at the city's southside Pryor
Road area. There, housing development is replacing dilapidated & crime-ridden strip malls. Bush has
proposed giving developers nearly $2.4 billion in tax credits over 5 years for building affordable single-family homes in low-income
areas. The White House estimates that the tax incentive could translate into the construction of 200,000 affordable
homes in that 5-year period.
The president proposed a $200-million expansion to the American Dream Down-Payment Fund, first
outlined in January and awaiting action by Congress, which would give about 40,000 families each year for five
years a grant to help pay a down payment or closing costs. Most of the grants would be less than $5,000 for each
family and money would be distributed by state & local housing programs. The program currently has a budget
of $50 million and is to begin offering grants in July.
"The single greatest hurdle to first-time homeownership is a high down payment requirement that can put a home out of reach," Bush said Saturday. He also called for better consumer education to help would-be buyers navigate the complexities of getting an affordable mortgage. "We're stepping up our efforts to better educate first-time home buyers," Bush said. "Education is the best protection for families against abusive and unscrupulous lenders. Financial education and housing counseling can help protect home buyers against abuses, greatly improve the loan terms they are offered, and help families get through tough times with their homes intact."
5.17.03 Steve Strunsky AP "I'm happy because I believe in God," said Melendez, a Roman Catholic, who has a raised bed, battery powered radio, patchwork carpeting, roll of toilet paper, tiny fireplace and a poster of Abraham Lincoln tacked the low ceiling. The problem: city officials want Melendez and everyone else in the makeshift neighborhood to get out. The area has drawn the attention of authorities & concerned residents for recent violence & its unsightly appearance.
Like a miniature version of the sprawling favelas populated by poor rural migrants on the outskirts of Latin
American cities, the shanties, extremely rare in these parts, occupy a sloping strip of wooded no-man's land in
Hudson County NJ's most densely populated region. The shanties are within Union City, but are closer to the base
of the Palisades overlooking Hoboken, with its luxury apartments & townhouses closer to the Hudson River
opposite Manhattan that sell for more than $1 million.
Melendez is a native of Puerto Rico who said he will seek social security when he's eligible in 2
years but now receives no public assistance. He said Stack appeared genuinely concerned when the 2 spoke
during the mayor's visit. Melendez said he wouldn't mind moving, but added, "We don't have any place to go."
Melendez is not exaggerating, said Palisades Emergency Residence Corp. co-dir. Tom Harrigan, soup kitchen
& 40-bed homeless shelter that is filled most nights.
Melendez' son, Diego Ramirez, 39, shares a shanty with one other man just up a dirt path from his father's little
shack. The men live surrounded by what seemed to be years worth of broken beer bottles & other trash, 30 or
40 ft above railroad tracks being installed at the base of the Palisades. Ramirez said he has been living in various
spots on the Palisades for 10 years, since his girlfriend threw him out of the apartment they shared, and started
drinking heavily thereafter. |
For Teresa Murray, the first sign of trouble came with the two-family in Roslindale that got 27 bids and a winning offer $80,000 above the $329,000 asking price. Then there was the fixer-upper listed at $239,000 in Mattapan, another dreary ranch in Randolph, and finally the day she found herself in Attleboro, staring blankly at newly built homes in anonymous subdivisions going for $350,000 and up. 2 years after starting the search, Murray, 40, is still paying rent in Jamaica Plain, just more of it, having been ousted from her one-bedroom apt that was converted to a condominium.
Ted LaCrone tells a similar tale. Hunting for condominiums in the price range of $200,000 after his daughter was
born 2 years ago, he found properties he describes as "tiny, crummy, and depressing", and not very many of them.
Then there's Anne Goddard & husband Shawn Sullivan, who returned to Massachusetts 3 years ago after
renting in San Francisco. They expected some sticker shock, but their hopes of finding a single-family home within Interstate 495 for less than $300,000 were quickly dashed. They looked in Hudson then in Framingham, where their price requirement led them to a rickety house "that looked like it had been taken apart and put back together, and it was still a rabbit warren."
Goddard & Sullivan, the LaCrones, and Murray all might have had better luck in San Francisco, which has
historically registered the highest home prices in the nation but in recent months has seen some moderation,
starting with rentals, generally attributed to the dot-com bust. It might have been a fair assumption that the same
thing would happen in Massachusetts, where unemployment is up and the fortunes of once high-flying technology companies have flagged. But nothing of the kind has transpired. People searching for a home they can afford are looking farther & farther from Boston; "drive till you qualify" is the realtors' phrase, leading developers to build single-family subdivisions on farmland & woods beyond I-495. Land is used up, and more cars are added to already congested roadways. |
That's what happened in NJ, where judges tell wealthy communities they must build thousands of units of more-
dense housing, and they don't really care if residents say the projects will worsen traffic or overburden schools. The worry, in short, is not so much a fear that the real estate bubble will burst in Massachusetts. It's what will happen if it doesn't.
It's a pretty amazing market," says Wellesley College economist Karl E. "Chip" Case, someone not given to
hyperbole. "I don't quite get it. The softness is not there, but the economy is where we were in 1989", that is, in bad shape. Nationally, the 9 year run-up in housing prices looked as if it might finally be pulling back late last year. Prices declined slightly in Seattle, Houston, and Cincinnati, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, and rents declined nationally about 1% in Q4 2002. But the year finished off strong: 5.6 million homes sold across the country in 2002, up 5% over 2001.
War and higher interest rates could alter the trend this year, but Brad Inman, publisher of "Inman News," a real
estate newsletter, speaks for most experts when he says that the bubble won't likely burst but rather gradually
deflate. In the Massachusetts market, meanwhile, the dips have been fleeting and gains magnified. The median
price of a home in Greater Boston hit $395,900 last year, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, roughly 2.5x the national median. In 2002, 46,769 single-family homes were sold in Massachusetts, a 5.1% increase over 2001, according to the association. The average selling price was $346,019, up 12% over 2001; the average condo price was $243,951, up 16% over 2001. Greater Boston had the most expensive average price for a single-family house: $498,180.
"We still see a steady pace. I even had a showing on Super Bowl Sunday," says Carolyn Chodat of the Medway-
based Classic Properties, who sees clients flooding into the relative bargain areas west of I-495 like Northbridge, Uxbridge, and tiny Millville, on the Rhode Island border. "I think it's going to be a good spring."
Spending under a half-million dollars, of course, is what most people looking for a home have in mind. So for them, the puzzling question remains: Why? Why are prices so high, and why do they stay that way? What's so different about Massachusetts? To pick some early and only slightly arbitrary culprits, wind the clock back and blame the Atlantic Ocean, the Pilgrims, and Harvard.
As the oldest continuously settled part of the Republic, Massachusetts has had lots of time to fill in the nooks
& crannies of buildable land in every direction but east, because of the ocean. So the region is mature & confined geographically; for most of the past decade especially, economically robust and thus a popular place to be. Massachusetts is home to a greater diversity of ideas-based, information-based businesses than other parts of the country, helped in large part by the presence of the colleges, universities, and research laboratories that attract a skilled work force. "It's why we're not Detroit," says Harvard economist Edward Glaeser.
But it's not all new people moving in and looking for a place to live. Massachusetts grew by just 332,672 people
from 1990 to 2000, bringing the total population to 6.3 million, according to the US Census. That was an increase of just 5.5%. The new arrivals are joined by legions of people already here who have jumped into the home-buying market. In what analysts call "household sprawl," there are fewer people under each roof today: more singles, divorced people, or young people who leave the nest. Where there historically were at least 12 people in a triple-decker, there now may only be 4; a professional couple on the upper floors and 2 tenants on the first floor.
The number of Massachusetts households expanded by 130,000 in the 1990s, according to Harvard's Joint Ctr for Housing Studies. Immigrants, as well, are boosting the number of would-be home buyers. Not so much the most recent arrivals, who double or triple up in apartments and work in entry-level jobs, but the foreign-born who have been here for 5 or 10 years and have saved up the down payment or are well-paid workers at technology or biotech companies and are looking for single-family homes in the suburbs, just like everybody else.
Toss in the availability of 30-year fixed mortgages at an interest rate as low as 5.75%, lowest rates in 40 years, and the popularity of real estate as a sounder investment than the stock market, and the result is a mountain of demand. Supply, in normal circumstances, when a bunch of people clamor for a product, the market responds by making more of it. But in Massachusetts, the supply of housing hasn't increased much, despite the obvious business opportunity. A report last fall by The Boston Foundation, Northeastern University, and the Citizens Housing & Planning Association found that the number of new homes produced each year actually declined from an average of 8,460 in the late 1990s to 8,194 in 2000.
That decline the driving force behind home prices soaring 50% in Greater Boston between 1998 & 2002, has been the subject of much analysis and soul-searching. The root of the problem, developers say, is that there isn't enough land to build on, not so much a physical scarcity as a scarcity of land that cities & towns are willing to allow development on. "We actually have lots of land," says Charles C. Euchner, head of the Rappaport Institute for Greater Boston at Harvard's Kennedy School of Govt. It's marbled throughout the areas already built up, incl empty lots and parcels near transit stations, he says. But local residents opposed to further development can veto proposals in classic not-in-my-backyard fashion, esp. housing proposals with lots of units, partly due to fear of overloading the school system, partly due to concern about home values.
NIMBY is enabled by local zoning rules & land-use regulations, some of which actually prohibit multifamily
residential developments, Euchner says. About 45 communities have passed slow-growth or no-growth measures on top of the existing rules, such as caps on building permits per year. What ends up being built are large-lot, single-family subdivisions: by definition, more expensive homes, and not very many of them.
When any type of residential development does manage to get local approval, the process for actually getting a
project built is costly & time-consuming. "The other night [at a planning board meeting], in Plainville, we had a wetlands biologist, a civil engineer, a lawyer, a landscape architect, and myself," says Sharon-based realtor & development consultant David Wluka. "That was probably $2,000 an hour, and all the questions didn't get
answered, so another meeting was scheduled. It's not unusual for the cost of the permitting process to become as much as the cost of the land."
High labor costs, cost of land, and low interest rates all form the foundation for inflated prices, but it is the
squeezing off of supply and the constraints on developable land that intensify everything. So that duplex in the
South End and that bungalow in Newton can sell for twice what they went for a few years ago, because of
fundamentals like location and quality, but also because those properties are in a marketplace that has been
shrunk to boutique proportions.
To the retired firefighter who hits the jackpot and uses the $300,000 profit from selling his single-family home in
South Boston to move to Braintree or Hingham or Florida, there's not much to complain about. But an untamed
housing market can actually wreak havoc. The continual movement outward from Boston is perhaps the least
efficient way to provide housing, says Metropolitan Area Planning Council exec. dir. Marc Draisen. Single-family
subdivisions burn through the land quickly, and inevitably the boomtown of the moment fills up and closes the door on further development, pushing the subdivisions to the next town over. If that goes on past Worcester, he says, whole swaths of Eastern Massachusetts will choke on traffic & pollution, and there won't be much in the way of woods & farms.
Yet, "outward" remains the guiding principle in the search for a home in Massachusetts, southeast to Plymouth,
south to Attleboro, southwest to Franklin and Bellingham and Milford, west to Grafton, northwest from Sterling and Bolton, all the way to Westminster, and north to Tyngsborough, Methuen, and, reliably, southern New Hampshire. Wluka says he recently had a client who went through a typical outward progression: starting in Cohasset & Scituate, then on to Stoughton, Foxborough, North Franklin, and Attleboro, and winding up in Woonsocket & Cumberland in Rhode Island. The way things are now, driving to where the affordable homes are is a necessity. But it's a classic road map of sprawl.
What's equally messy is what could happen to the state's economic profile. Families earning the median income in the Boston area, about $60,000, can afford the monthly payments for a $250,000 home if they can save enough for a down payment. "It gets hard with all the expenditures, car insurance, preschool, rent, to squirrel that money away," says house hunter Acia Adams Heath, a financial assistant at MIT. Taking on a lot of debt to buy a home is also daunting, she says: "I feel like we'd be eating peanut butter sandwiches for a year."
But even those eager to spend often can't break into this market. After a year of looking, Heath & her
husband, both 28, have been unable to find anything acceptable, even in the $300,000 range. They have found
mostly unimpressive condos in Boston, where they prefer to raise their daughter, now 3. It's especially galling,
Heath says, because she and her husband make proportionately more money than those in her parents' generation did when they were buying houses. Friends around the nation aren't having this problem. "Speaking to my family in Atlanta, they're like, `What do you mean you can't find a home? You guys are not low-income. What are you talking about?' But up here, we are."
The problem is compounded when teachers, police officers, municipal workers, hospital staff, and retail employees can't afford to live where they want or near the community where they work and end up leaving the state, because long commutes are ruining their quality of life. If that keeps happening, there won't be enough people to fill the range and diversity of jobs, from entry-level on up, that make up a healthy economy. Lately that concern is extending to better-paid professionals. Massachusetts Technology Collaborative recently warned that, more & more, workers are unwilling to relocate here. Prospective employees know what they can sell their house for in Atlanta or the Midwest, and they discover they can't buy anything closely equivalent in Massachusetts with the proceeds. One Harvard official says there have been a number of doctors who are turning down assignments at Massachusetts General Hospital because area housing costs are too high.
"We had friends in New York, Chicago, and Atlanta who moved home to Louisville, and they were getting nice,
older homes in well-established neighborhoods with good schools," says Rebecca Matheny, who grew up in
Kentucky and lives with her husband and their new baby in Somerville. In Louisville, she says, you can get a nice older home for the price of a ho-hum 2 bedroom condo in Somerville. The last straw was the newly constructed unit on the site of a former gas station in Somerville that went for nearly $300,000, what a friend recently paid for a place in Manhattan. "When condos in Somerville are costing the same as the Upper West Side, it just seems irrational. Something seems askew."
Matheny, who works for the Cambridge Housing Authority, worries about paying top dollar and then having the
condo market crash, and she refuses to make a long commute in exchange for a home outside of I-495. Her
husband, Michael Relish, is a software manager, and together they make well over the median income. So it's not that she couldn't find anything, she explains. She just couldn't find anything to maintain her quality of life.
Unable to buy or unwilling to buy, both result in the same erosion of the region's economic mosaic. But business
leaders find it particularly unnerving that the most skilled, well-educated, and creative people would make the
calculation and conclude that Massachusetts just isn't worth it. "We have options, and we're exercising one of
them," says Matheny. "We're leaving."
For all the fretting about the red-hot market's downside, housing remains a largely invisible crisis: The outflow of
people is hard to track; the state will still be here in 5 years even if nothing is done about housing; and there is no
simple solution, short of giving everyone who makes less than $60,000 a subsidy for shelter costs. Govt-
assisted housing projects are notoriously expensive per unit and hardly seem to make a dent in the problem.
Under the Community Preservation Act, Hopkinton voted for a tax surcharge in part to boost affordable
housing. The town is spending $100,000 just to move a "free" house donated by the Hopkinton-based EMC Corp. that will create exactly 2 units of affordable housing.
"When the market swoops in, it's incredibly difficult" to intervene, much less tame it, says National Housing Institute fellow Alan Mallach based in Orange, NJ. "Usually you're too early or you're too late. The best you can do is work at the edges and eke out a unit here and a unit there."
There are also those who believe that it's pointless to try to manage this kind of a market, anyway. It's expensive to live here, this line of thinking goes, but our wages are higher, and what's wrong with a lot of wealth, anyway? If an entire page in the Sunday real estate section doesn't boast a home for less than $600,000, we must be doing
something right. We're in the league with San Francisco or New York.
Yet, most planners and those in Gov. Mitt Romney's administration remain convinced that prices need to be reined in, to keep Massachusetts from becoming a victim of its own success. The handiest way to do that is to increase supply. Led by Conservation Law Foundation former president Douglas Foy, now ubersecretary for state development, housing, transportation, and the environment, the Romney team wants to see more housing built, but not just anywhere. The governor wants the new housing to be targeted in urban areas that are already
"infrastructure rich," meaning near transit or commuter rail. It's a kill-two-birds-with-one-stone approach: tame the affordable-housing crisis while curbing sprawl.
How to steer growth to where you want it to go: Streamline the permitting process and cut red tape in urban areas served by transit or rail, like Salem, Brockton, or the end of the Orange Line at the Malden-Melrose line, all of which should welcome revitalization. Build housing on closed state hospital sites and land owned by the MBTA, largest single landowner in Eastern Massachusetts. To get notoriously independent communities to change their zoning to allow dense development at town centers and near rail lines, dangle incentives, boosts in state aid to match expanded services, such as funding for schools, or in these tight fiscal times, less-harsh cuts in state aid.
"We're at a point where we need to make a grand bargain, like the one we made with schools 10 years ago, which was money in exchange for standards. Here, it would be money for local embrace of housing," says the Rappaport Institute's Euchner. "You're asking towns to do something that doesn't benefit them but instead benefits the region."
As an added incentive, he says, communities that agree to more housing could be let off the hook for Chapter 40B, the controversial state law that fast-tracks residential projects in cities & towns with less than 10 percent affordable housing. There's a willing market for living in cities or compact town centers, between 30 & 40% of home buyers prefer to be able to walk to the corner store, says Miami-based architectural firm Duany Plater-Zyberk principal Andres Duany, founding member of the Congress for the New Urbanism.
Local developers agree that most of them would gladly build more-dense developments if they were allowed to.
"They're building 200 units in North Andover, because that's where the system lets them build," says Piper Rudnick real estate atty Greg Bialecki in Boston. "It's the path of least resistance." Says broker Wluka: "If they allowed homes on smaller lots, people would buy them. Others would still pay a premium for more space. But right now, there isn't a lot of choice."
Even providing more choice is fraught with pitfalls, however. Romney might find that most people still want single-family homes in the suburbs and are unwilling to move to cities because of perceived sub-par schools. At the macro level, when govts try to manage & control the development of housing, they can end up boosting home prices even higher. Portland, OR urban growth boundary, for example, is intended to make more efficient use of urbanized land through greater density. But it is itself a constraint on supply; no major development is allowed outside of the boundary line.
"In a hot housing market, trying to direct the new supply of housing into particular neighborhoods and regions runs a very real risk of reducing housing affordability," says Reason Public Policy Institute sr fellow Samuel Staley in Los Angeles. "It continues to limit supply in the places where people want to buy homes. A supply solution is the only answer, but it has to be housing that people want, not where govt officials or planners want them to live."
Sprawl, the argument goes, is supply unchained, surest way to meet demand is to build the houses
wherever they can be built and not, uncoincidentally, where most people want to live. Developers freed from one
set of regulations should not be corralled in new & different ways, says Home Builders Association of
Massachusetts lobbyist Benjamin Fierro. "We need local zoning reform more than state zoning reform," he
says.
Part of the skepticism about managing growth comes from the pure free-market philosophy of builders. But while builders insist that they are on the same page as environmentalists & planners who want smart growth, some housing advocates are privately dubious that the state can dictate type & location of the homes that get built. The rallying cry here is: just more homes, period.
The anti-sprawl crowd says that smart growth & affordable housing are synonymous, but the relationship
between growth management & home prices is still being studied. For Romney, increasing supply through
sprawl is not really an option; his suburban constituencies would revolt. But success of his plan to increase housing supply in urban areas will depend on how much help he's willing to give those places to become more attractive "receiving zones" for housing, says Bialecki. At the moment, there isn't a lot of money to throw around.
If nothing is done, if the Acia Heaths of the world just remain on the outside looking in, unable to get into the game of home ownership, if demand remains high, supply low, and the Massachusetts real estate market simply hurtles on, leafy New Jersey suburb of Mt Laurel provides one possible answer. A community about 25 miles northeast of Philadelphia, Mount Laurel is the Wellesley of southern New Jersey, with high home prices that have seemingly always been high.
In the 1970s, a woman named Ethel Lawrence teamed up with 3 enterprising lawyers & the NAACP to file a lawsuit alleging that people of modest means were being shut out of places like Mount Laurel, that the town's nice homes & good schools were unavailable to people who couldn't pay the price of admission. Despite the involvement of the NAACP, the suit wasn't centered on race so much as income.
To the surprise of some legal scholars, in 1975, NJ Supreme Court sided with Lawrence. The justices deemed that the state constitution guaranteed its citizens due process & equal protection, and that those concepts were violated in communities where low & moderate income families were denied the opportunity to buy a home. In the original ruling, wealthy suburbs were commanded to provide affordable housing. In progressively tougher rulings since then, they were basically forced to open themselves up to builders.
The so-called builder's-remedy solution required that the towns pass inclusionary zoning ordinances and "density bonuses" that brought about a mix of market-rate and affordable units. Similar to court-ordered
desegregation of schools, the mandate has more teeth than Chapter 40B, which is based on legislation and can be repealed at any time. With the judiciary making sure it got done, 30,000 units of affordable housing have come on line in the last 20 years.
Harvard Design School prof. Jerold Kaydenessor believes what happened in NJ could happen here. "If the political branches of govt don't get their act together," he says, "they could find themselves hauled before judges, who end up dictating the future course of planning & development." All it would take, he says, is a few exasperated families that want to live in the suburbs but can't. They could claim they are being denied their shot at the American dream and denied the chance to give their kids a good education. A lawyer or legal scholar could make quite a name for himself preparing a Mount Laurel-style lawsuit; the surprise for some is that it hasn't been filed already.
If a Mount Laurel-style lawsuit is indeed a credible threat, maintaining the status quo becomes the ultimate gamble: Do nothing about a real estate market that is out of reach for many thousands and risk having the courts step in and force a solution. Increasing the supply of housing is the move most everyone agrees on; where & how are tougher calls. Targeting built-up places over virgin soil is inarguably friendlier to the planet; it boggles the mind to think of Belchertown as Boston's next big bedroom community. Existing cities are surely part of the answer, but existing suburbs are, too. They can usher in cozy, compact development in their town centers, as Canton & Gloucester have done. Communities without such centers, like Bolton, will have to be extra creative to bring a portion of their housing stock within reach.
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