S.Calif. has worst affordable housing crisis in U.S
Jul/Aug '98   newsletterv8#4
S.Calif. Assoc. NonProfit Housing   3345 Wilshire Blvd ste1005 L.A. CA 90010 213.480.1249
nee www.scanph.org/newsjuly.html#anchor69852

Fullerton CA city council candidate Patricia Schuff wants to "halt affordable housing" because it leads to "overcrowding, blighted neighborhoods and overuse of parks & schools", mistaking solution for cause.

Santa Ana residents raise concerns about unaffordable rents & shortage of units
1.23.00   Valeria Godines Orange County Register

Santa Ana   Between 1980 & 1990, the city's population soared by 90,000. But housing in the same period inched up by only 8,000 units. Between 1990 & 2000, the population jumped by 21,000. But housing growth in the same period declined by 41 units, after homes were demolished for various transportation projects.
In other words, Santa Ana has a major housing crisis on its hands. The destination city for thousands of immigrants from Latin America has nowhere for them to live. Local officials and about 100 residents gathered Saturday morning to offer suggestions for the city's consolidated plan and the housing element of the general plan, key documents that set priorities for a city. The final plans will go to the City Council this spring.
Frustrated residents raised themes that have come up in Santa Ana before: crowding in homes, lack of affordable housing, and the polarizing of Hispanics and whites over the issue. "What about the quality of life?" asked Julie Stroud, a member of the Riverview Neighborhood Association. "We have to look at our community. We're losing our quality of life. ... We're overcrowded, and nobody seems to be listening."

In years past, Santa Ana has led the charge to reduce occupancy limits in homes, but the laws have been struck down in court. In its fight, the city has been accused of being insensitve to Hispanic and Asian immigrants in an expensive housing market. A county-funded housing study last year found that high rents and home prices have left a third of county residents living in crowded or substandard housing, or paying more than 30 % of their family income for housing.
Manuel Ballestero, a Pio Pico Elementary School teacher, stressed that families don't want to live in those conditions, they are forced to because of low wages and high rents.
"It's an issue that can polarize Latinos and Anglos. They hear these stories about the Latino culture, about extended families, and they think that's the way they want to live, but it isn't," he said. "It's an economic necessity. Ask a family who lives with another family if they want to, and they will say, 'Of course not.' We need to put a human face on overcrowding," Ballestero said.

The city is about 70 % Hispanic and has the youngest population in the county, with a median age of 26. And 35 % of Santa Ana's households have families with five or more members (Costa Mesa has 10 % and Anaheim 17 %), according to statistics presented at the meeting.
Elizabeth Cabrera, who lives in a mobile-home park with her two children, understood other residents' concerns about crowding.
"It's not right. I see how they live all together like that. But the rent is so high, and that's why they do it. They raised our rent twice this year," Cabrera said in Spanish.

State housing officials have recommended that Santa Ana build 1,300 more housing units over the next five years to accommodate needs, but it's not a requirement and is unlikely to happen. The general plan's housing element and the consolidated plan should be drafted by February or March. Final reports, which will include five-year housing plans for the city, should go to the City Council in May. The city is also conducting a survey of housing and community-development needs. info 714.667.2260.


Cosmopolite   stalk of the metrosexual
Staring intently
  At downtown windows, gauging
    Real estate prospects.

      Savage brave scouting
    Spoor of game through thorn thickets
        In hope of a meal.


HO U S I N G   Å
 
Tenant Movement NYC 1904-1984 from TenantNet
Alameda Corridor Project
The End of Southern California
Alexander Cockburn says adios to Aztlan

Nico Calavita, prof. City Planning Grad.Pgm SDSU
Affordable housing, redevelopment & urban planning
NKLA & Neal Richman
Santa Monica Green Party mayor Feinstein re moratorium
L.A. Times real estate rental classifieds
OC Register / OC Weekly


more SF woes
Housing & Overpopulation   Shocked by the obvious
7.1.01   Thos. Sowell Capitalism Magazine

Study: Costs rising for average California families
9.24.01   Leon Drouin Keith AP

LOS ANGELES   The wages needed for the typical California family to meet basic costs total nearly three times the federal poverty level, according to a report released Monday by a non-profit research & advocacy group, California Budget Project, which found that a family of 4 needs an income of $52,034 a year to earn a modest living, a 16% increase from 1999, when the organization first studied how much it takes to make a living in the state. The study found that the cost of living is rising faster than the state's average hourly wage, which went up 9.5 %, from $11.96 in 1998 to $13.10 last year.
Raising two children is tough all around California, said Jean Ross, the project's executive director. Housing costs are sky-high in urban and coastal areas, but because wages are lower inland, "in a lot of respects it's a toss-up," Ross said. Making ends meet is particularly hard for single parents. An adult raising two kids while working one 40- hour-a-week job would need to earn close to $21 an hour to cover the basics, the report found. That's well over triple the state's minimum wage of $6.25 an hour.

"There has to be some broader awareness that the minimum wage standards are utterly contemptible – they're not just ridiculous," said Bob Untiedt, executive director of the Hollywood Interfaith Sponsoring Committee, a coalition of churches and a synagogue working to improve the living standards of their community. Untiedt said that although wealthier people may think that families can get by on much less than the report suggests, doing so means coping with hardships including overcrowded, substandard housing, a lack of transportation and no medical care. "There really is a lot of struggle in the lives of lots of ordinary people," he said.
The project used the latest available federal and state data to estimate how much families need to pay for housing, transportation, child care, food, taxes and other necessary expenses. It did not take into account this year's federal income tax cut because details on the newest tax tables were not available, Ross said. The report assumed the families had housing cheaper than 60 % of their region's rental properties, and that they enrolled in individual health care plans through Kaiser Permanente or Blue Cross. Although families in lower-cost housing or who have health care through employers or public programs would have lower expenses than the report indicates, there are other expenses that are not included, Ross said.

The study assumes that families rent their homes, do not send their children to private schools, are not saving money and aren't taking vacations, Ross said. "We don't even figure in two weeks at a state park," she said. Ross said one thing federal officials could do quickly to ease the burden on families is to grant the state a waiver that would allow it to expand its "Healthy Families" program, which provides health care to children in families earning two and a half times the poverty level or less. The waiver would expand the program to the children's families.

    Poverty rate driven down
    9.26.01   SD UT
The U.S. poverty rate dipped last year to its lowest level in over a quarter-century, driven down by a healthy economy that helped a broad range of workers. Incomes leveled off after years of increase.
Overall, many analysts said the Census Bureau report released yesterday offered a positive picture of the American economy, at least before the financial unrest from the terrorist attacks. 2000 could prove to be the high-water mark of the economic expansion that began in the early 1990s, said Tim Smeeding, professor of economics & public policy at Syracuse Univ. "The economy continued to do good things in 2000," Smeeding said. Speaking of the poverty rate, he added, "Unfortunately, I'm afraid that what goes down will come back up, particularly after" the terror attacks.
"Mortgage bonds backed by home loans that are almost all delinquent about tripled to $20 billion last year from $7 billion in 2001, according to Moody's Investors Service. The securities are stocked with so-called re- performing loans, or mortgages with late payments that lenders buy from the Government National Mortgage Association and then package as bonds for sale to investors.
Mortgage delinquencies have risen to 4.86% as of 2002 Q3 end from 3.75% low in 2000 as rising unemployment hurt the ability of borrowers to make payments. Investors who buy the securities are betting delinquencies will fall once the economy strengthens. The increase 'is directly correlated with a rise in delinquencies,' said … a sr mortgage analyst … Investors are also buying the securities because they typically carry higher yields to compensate for the risk of default, he said."
3.4.03 Bloomberg
… truly historic developments within the Great Mortgage Finance Bubble. Total Mortgage Credit expanded at a record annualized $1.07 Trillion during Q4 2002, with Household Mortgage Debt surging at an annualized $854.7 billion pace. Household Mortgage debt Growth is fully 60% greater than 2001's record $530.9 billion.
To bring additional perspective to the enormity of this Credit explosion, recall that pre-Bubble 1997 saw total Household Mortgage growth of $238 billion (nineties average of $250 billion). The fourth quarter saw a lending frenzy at almost 4x the pace of only 5 years ago. For 2002, Household Mortgage borrowings jumped $723 billion (12.6%), with Total Mortgage Debt growth of $880.9 billion (11.6%).

Total Mortgage Debt growth was up 25% from the previous year's record ($881 bn vs. $706 bn) and up 190% from 1997's growth. For comparison, the 1980s' (Total Mortgage debt growth) peak was 1988's $316 billion, while the nineties averaged $277 billion. Total outstanding Mortgage Debt is up $1.59 Trillion over 23 years (23%) and $3.3 Trillion (64%) over 5 years. For comparison, the previous 5 year period saw Total Mortgage Credit growth of $1.1 Trillion.

The Great Mortgage Finance Bubble is fueled by unprecedented financial Credit creation (financial sector liability/"electronic IOU" expansion). Financial Sector debt increased at a 10.9% rate during Q4 2002, strongest pace in 2 years.
The most conspicuous Credit Bubble attestation, Financial Sector Credit Market liabilities have surged 89% to $10.3 Trillion since the beginning of 1998 (from 66% to 99% of GDP). This debt growth, as we know, has been completely dominated by the Structure Finance Trio of the govt-sponsored enterprises (GSE), Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS), and Asset-backed Securities (ABS).

During a quarter that saw just over 1% annualized GDP growth, GSE borrowings increased at a 15.1% rate to $2.55 Trillion. Outstanding Mortgage-backed Securities expanded at a rate of 9.6% to $3.16 Trillion, and Asset- backed Securities at a 16.1% pace to $2.39 Trillion. Combined (GSE, MBS, and ABS) "Structured Finance Trio" debt expanded at a $1.04 Trillion pace (13.2%) during the fourth quarter to $8.1 Trillion. For all of 2002, Structured Finance borrowings increased $838 billion, or 11.6% (GSE's 10.7%, MBS 11.6%, and ABS 12.4%). GDP expanded by less than $400 billion during 2002.
Over 5 years, Structured Finance borrowings are up 103% (GSE 132%, MBS 73%, and ABS 124%). Over 10 years, borrowings are up 263% (GSE 361%, MBS 148%, and ABS 488%). In just 5 years, Structured Finance Trio debt has jumped from 48% to 77% of GDP. It's up from 1990's 30% & '85's 17%.

Looking at dollars, Structured Finance debt has expanded $4.1 Trillion in 5 years, while GDP has increased $2.1 Trillion (about 1.9 to 1). Parabolic nature of the escalating divergence between debt growth & economic "output" (inflating financial claims versus stagnating "output" growth) is visible over the past 2 years in Structured Finance Trio debt surged to $1.8 Trillion, while GDP has increased $621 billion (about 2.9 to 1).
Mortgage lending (Cheesecake) bonanza has irreparably overwhelmed the banking sector, fueling the Q4 2002's 8.5% annualized Commercial Bank assets expansion. Bank assets were up a record $526.3 billion, or 7.7%, for all of 2002 to $7.36 Trillion. This compares to asset growth of $362 billion (5.6%) during 2001. Last year's $269.3 billion (15%!) increase in Mortgage Loans was more than double 2001's $129.8 billion. Mortgages increased at an annualized rate of $357 billion, or a noteworthy 18%, during the fourth quarter to $2.1 Trillion.

U.S. Govt Securities (Treasury & Agency) holdings increased $182.1 billion to $1.1 Trillion, compared to 2001's $33.7 billion increase. Agency securities holdings jumped $139.2 billion (18%) during 2002 to $916.6 billion, versus the previous year's $55.6 billion increase. Holdings of Corporate & Foreign Bonds added only $3.7 billion to $380.1 billion, a fraction of 2001's $97.8 billion increase. Corporate Bank Loans dropped $75.8 billion to $1.35 Trillion, after declining $76.2 billion during 2001.
Over the past two years, Bank Mortgage holdings have surged 24%, while corporate bank loans have dropped 10%. With manic refinancing, equity-extracting Household sector flush with liquidity, it is worth a brief look to note its disposition. We see $668.3 billion Household & Nonprofit Organization Net (2002) Acquisition of Financial Assets (compared to 2001's $553.7 bn). Time & Savings Deposits increased $309 billion (compared to 2001's $206.5 bn), while about $300 billion went into Pension & Life Insurance Reserves. Changes to Equity & Mutual Fund holdings netted to an increase of about $45 billion, while Agencies dropped about $100 billion.

Curiously, we see that the acquisition of Municipal Securities more than doubled to $110 billion. Households increased Muni holdings by 22% to $616.6 billion during the year. Is the Household sector speculating on interest rate differentials, borrowing tax-deductible mortgage debt to acquire tax-free muni securities? It is also worth noting that Household (& Nonprofit) sector Total Assets ended 2002 at $47.9 Trillion. While this is off 2.7% from the year-2000 high, Total Assets remain up 47% over 7 years.
Real Estate values increased $1.1 Trillion last year to $14.9 Trillion, with 5 year gains of $5.3 Trillion (50%). Inflating Real Estate & debt securities prices have largely offset collapsing equity values.

Intl financial flows are accounted for in the "Rest of World" (ROW) sector. While the hype of the hyper-productive U.S. economy is unrelenting, foreign investors are in dramatic retreat. Importantly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the U.S. has collapsed. FDI surpassed $100 billion for the first time during 1997 ($109.3 bn), then jumped to $179 billion during 1998. Escalating financial & economic Bubble enticed $289.5 billion of FDI during 1999 and the high-water mark $307.7 billion for year-2000. Speculative FDI was stemmed, however, by the bursting equity/NASDAQ Bubble. FDI sank to $130.8 billion during 2001 and collapsed to last year's $46.0 billion, the lowest level since 1992.
Yet, our massive trade deficits create intl dollar balances that must find their way to U.S. financial asset markets. Hence, Rest of World acquisition of U.S. Credit Market Instruments surged last year to $416.9 billion. This compares to 2001's $320.6 billion, 2000's $225.9 billion and 1999's $139.7 billion. Last year, ROW increased holdings of Agencies by $126.1 billion, Treasuries by $99.3 billion, and U.S. Corporate Bonds (includes ABS) by $166.9 billion. It is worth noting that ROW made net Agency purchases of $11 billion during 1998 and $63.5 billion during 1999.

We do not expect FDI to the U.S. to recover for many years. That the dollar has sunk in the face of massive purchases of U.S. securities portends ominous dollar vulnerability. If there is any waning of demand for Agencies & U.S. Corporates (esp. asset-backs), we have a serious problem. The day our foreign-sourced financiers move to liquidate U.S. securities, we are faced with a calamitous dislocation. As goes Structured Finance, so goes the dollar.
This Tuesday from Chairman Greenspan:

    "The very large flows of mortgage funds over the past 2 years have been described by some analysts as possibly symptomatic of an emerging housing bubble, not unlike the stock market bubble whose bursting wreaked considerable distress in recent years … It is, of course, possible for home prices to fall as they did in a couple of quarters in 1990. But any analogy to stock market pricing behavior & bubbles is a rather large stretch."
It's not a stretch. Today, an explosion of mortgage lending is behind a destabilizing ballooning of financial sector assets. As the Household Sector aggressively inflates its liabilities, it obtains in return liquidity for continued rampant consumption, as well as the accumulation of financial assets (savings deposits, municipal debt, etc.).
This Household financial asset accumulation provides liquidity for govt borrowing & spending, along with the newfound liquidity in the corporate bond market. Record systemic Credit creation (incl speculative Credit market leveraging) then extends the inflation in home & Credit market securities values, which stimulates only greater borrowings. Credit excess begets asset inflation that begets further Credit excess.

Along with conspicuous Credit abuse, there are distinct speculative components as well. There has been a rush by the household sector to procure the most valuable inflating asset (home) possible, stretching the limits of borrowing capacity. In the financial sector, there has evolved unparalleled leveraged speculation in Agency, Mortgage-backs and other debt instruments.
The more extreme the resulting over-liquefication (inflation) throughout the financial sphere, the more virulent the inflationary bias in securities prices. Said another way, in today's market any hint of economic weakness (or even housing vulnerability), incites a "melt-up" in Agency, Treasury and other debt instruments. These collapsing yields, as we have witnessed, then incite the (real estate manic) household sector to refinance & expand borrowings. This only leads to further inflating of financial sector liabilities, further self-reinforcing debt monetization, and additional marketplace liquidity.
Do not forget all the derivatives & mortgage debt (and other interest rate) hedging that leads to further self- reinforcing market pricing distortions.

Dr. Greenspan, it's a textbook Bubble. As enormous Bubbles tend to do, it has taken on a precarious life of its own. Until something changes, we should err on the side of expecting this amazing blow-off in Mortgage Finance to spur continued rampant dollar financial claims inflation. This remains dollar bearish, economic stability bearish and financial fragility bullish.
What is not so clear is to what extent a depreciating dollar, inflating relative values for things non-dollar, incites self-reinforcing sectoral Credit and speculative excess going forward.

Judge's ruling may alter foreclosures
11.15.07  
UPI

Cleveland   A U.S. judge in Ohio created a possible obstacle for lenders trying to reclaim foreclosed property from troubled borrowers. U.S. District Judge Christopher Boyko of Cleveland ruled against a long-standing practice by dismissing 14 foreclosure cases brought on behalf of mortgage investors because those trying to seize the property The New York Times said. Some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was reported outstanding at the end of 2006.

But it has become more difficult at times to determine who holds the mortgage notes, consumer advocates said, because of the complex structure and disparate ownership of mortgage securities.
In the Boyko case, handed down 10.31.07, the judge sought proof of ownership in 14 cases represented by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. But lawyers could supply only documents showing an intent to convey the rights in the mortgages rather than proof of ownership.

Still slim pickings
Though a few more Southland for-sale signs are sprouting, buyers are coming up short.
9.11.05   Darrell Satzman L.A. Times

The house on 16th Street in Santa Monica was new, big and, most important, for sale, but it didn't do much for Damir and Anne Pevec. "It's a wham-bam contractor house," said Anne of the lot-swallowing, 5,500-square-foot, $3.7-million home. "It's a spec house," Damir added. "It's a lot of home for the money, but it's lacking in character."
When the subject is real estate, the Pevecs have a habit of finishing one another's sentences. It comes from 16 months spent looking for a new home this year and last. Although their $3-million budget is considerably higher than most households', they are still confronting the same hard truth facing just about every other prospective buyer in Los Angeles County: There just isn't a whole lot out there to choose from.

The number of homes for sale has been persistently low for almost five years, a cycle that bottomed out in the spring of 2004. Since the beginning of this summer, inventory levels in many neighborhoods have crept up a bit, and there is anecdotal evidence that some pockets have more on the market now that September is here, but the increases are not much by historical standards.
"Inventory is still low and the demand is still strong," said Julie Lovett, the broker whose business, Lovett Co., had the listing on the 16th Street house. "Everyone has heard the predictions of a bubble, but I'm still seeing a lot of buyers in all price ranges."

A confluence of events is responsible. People are staying put and renovating instead of trading up; long-term interest rates have been lodged near historical lows; many homeowners have borrowed heavily against their equity and spent the funds; and, as traffic congestion worsens and gas prices soar, those with homes close to their jobs aren't willing to move if it adds to the commute.
By one common gauge of housing inventory, in July it would have taken 2.6 months to deplete Los Angeles County's supply of houses if nothing new came on the market, according to the California Assn. of Realtors. That was down from 3.4 months a year earlier and 4.4 months in July 2000. In contrast, the county's all-time high was 27.9 months in February 1991.

In another measure of the pinch, the Combined L.A./Westside Multiple Listing Service tallied just 1,891 single-family homes for sale in June (the last month for which data are available) in an area stretching from Silver Lake to Playa del Rey and Malibu. That's down from several thousand on the market in the late 1990s.
For the Pevecs, who have definite ideas about where they want to live and a generous budget, the lack of available homes has been frustrating. The Pevecs, commercial real estate investors, raised their family in Malibu, then sold their longtime home to spend a year living in Europe. But they've been back and paying rent for nearly two years now. They are, they say, reaching the exasperation stage.
"We've seen every home in Santa Monica in our price range, every one," Anne Pevec said. "Nothing is worth the price."

The lack of homes for sale is a statewide phenomenon and another surprising characteristic of a real estate market that has for several years defied many experts' predictions of a significant slowdown. Typically, an extended run-up in appreciation is checked at some point by a sell-off as homeowners try to cash in on their equity and trade up. The oft-cited imbalance between population growth and new-home construction in the region helps explain why prices have gone up but not necessarily why more people aren't listing their homes for sale.
Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors, said one major factor is that homeowners have been borrowing against their equity as never before.
"People who have been in their homes five or 10 years have probably refinanced at least once and maybe several times," she said. "People have been taking money out, and they don't have the down payment to trade up."

Another reason is that with incomes rising slowly, many are loath to take on the higher tax burden that frequently comes with buying a new house. Added to that is the uncertainty about the cost of borrowing money.
"Interest rates are starting to come up a bit already," Appleton-Young said. "People don't want to give up their mortgage."
Robert Leighton, incoming president of the Beverly Hills Greater Los Angeles Assn. of Realtors, offered another explanation for the dearth of inventory. "People still consider L.A. a mecca and they don't want to move out unless they are downsizing or retiring to another area," he said. "People don't want these long commutes. They are willing to pay more to stay close to where they work to cut their travel time."
Those with equity are choosing to renovate instead of moving. "They're calling in the contractors," Appleton-Young said. "People are saying, 'We're going to stay in this house and make it the home of our dreams.' "

Low interest rates and low inventory have contributed to the unprecedented appreciation of single-family homes in the last few years. Los Angeles County homeowners have experienced 19 consecutive months of year-over-year median price gains in excess of 20%. That streak ended last October, with year-to-year gains moving down to an average 15% since then.
Even that modest dip was cited as evidence of a shift in the housing market. Then came July, when year-over-year appreciation was back above 20% in L.A. County, pushing the median price to a record $488,000, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems.

In Los Angeles, it's not just Westside home shoppers who are being affected by low inventory levels. Maureen Kaye recently listed a four-bedroom, 1,480-square-foot home in the Valley Glen area of the San Fernando Valley for $649,000. She and some partners purchased the home a year ago for about $400,000 as an investment, spending a little more than $100,000 to fix it up.
Although the price is a bit high for the area, which used to be part of North Hollywood, Kaye said she is confident she'll get close to what she's asking.
"If you look in this neighborhood," she said, "there are not very many homes for sale."
Indeed, the Southland Regional Assn. of Realtors reported that in July there were 2,810 homes for sale in the San Fernando Valley, equal to a 1.8-month supply. Last July, there were 4,356 homes for sale.
"Our normal inventory would be five months' supply and about 8,000 listings," said Jim Ezell, president of the association. "There is basically no supply."

The San Fernando Valley crunch is tightest among the most affordable homes, he said. Low interest rates have put more potential buyers in the market, meaning more competition for available homes.
"Any type of starter home or condo is selling very quickly," Ezell said. "It's a bit of a cliché, but someone is always grabbing the first rung of the housing ladder. There is high interest in getting into the market."
Although supply has been increasing in the Santa Clarita Valley over the last few months, it also remains far below historical norms, said Realtor Tricia LaMotte of Keller Williams ZIP Properties.
"In Santa Clarita, we have about 1 1/2 months of inventory; normally we have five months of inventory," LaMotte said. "I have a client who's been on the waiting list at one development for six months. He's lost all hope of ever getting in there. If you have only eight homes available and there are hundreds on the list, you're going to lose out."

Although many of the conditions that drove local inventory down to such low levels still exist, most real estate professionals believe that higher interest rates and slowing appreciation will gradually push the number of listings up in the months ahead.
"I think it will shift to more of a buyer's market," said Christopher Valenti, an agent with RE/MAX Beverly Hills. "We're already seeing homes staying on the market a little longer, especially on the high end."
For the Pevecs, that shift can't come quickly enough. When they sold their home and moved abroad, they took comfort in the outlook of many economic forecasters, figuring the red-hot market would have cooled by the time they returned and were ready to buy back in. They guessed wrong.
"We sold ourselves out of the market because prices have escalated so quickly," Damir said. "We've been involved in bidding wars and we've seen a lot of junk. But there's just not much out there. It's a hard time to be buying a house."

The Pevecs said that despite their strong desire to live in Santa Monica, which is near their grown children and centrally located for managing their commercial properties, they are weary of the hunt. They recently expanded their options a bit and put an offer on a house in Venice.
"It's rough, but that's what you have to do if you want to be in this market," Anne said. "You have to suck it up and keep going."

Tiny island shows legacy of Prop. 13's tax limits   Lido Isle residents pay as little as $714 in taxes on homes where median sales price is $1 million.
9.29.03   Ashley Powers & Kimi Yoshino
L.A. Times

John M. Franco voted against Proposition 13 in 1978. The Los Angeles city employee feared the sweeping tax measure would wreck local government finances.
25 years later, he still thinks the property tax-limiting law is bad for govt. But Franco, now retired, can appreciate the benefits better than most: Because of Prop. 13, he pays only $2,240 in property taxes on a 2 story home he bought in 1968 on Lido Isle, quiet jewel of a community surrounded by Newport Harbor. A neighbor who bought a smaller home only yards away in 1999 pays nearly 7 times as much.

Franco, 65, is well aware that his good fortune means a loss for cash-hungry local govts. "I can be a living example of why I thought this was a bad idea," he says.But the flip side of Prop. 13, Franco and many of his neighbors say, is that it has allowed them to stay on Lido Isle as home prices soared. "Taxes would have gone up to the point where, for heaven's sake, three-fourths of the people couldn't afford to live there," said Jane Howlett, 81, who until recently lived on Lido Isle. "You have mansions on one side and old people in small houses on the other."

Prompted by tales of Californians being taxed out of their homes as property values rose in the 1970s, Prop. 13 capped increases in the assessed value of property at 2% per year, thereby limiting property taxes, which are generally about 1% of the assessed value.
Though partial reassessments can occur under some circumstances, homes are usually reassessed at market value when they are sold. This means that in a rapidly escalating market, a home that recently changed hands will be taxed far more heavily than an identical nearby property that has had the same owner for decades.

Even now, Prop. 13 continues to spark debate, most recently in the campaigns of candidates hoping to be governor if Gray Davis is recalled 10.7.03. Some candidates have suggested the state's fiscal crisis shows that the law should be altered, perhaps by exempting commercial property. But the law's central mission, protecting homeowners from escalating taxes that go with California's perennially hot real estate market, is considered sacred.
Perhaps nowhere in the state are the law's effects more dramatic than on the coast. "What you could buy 12 years ago for $400,000 or $500,000 is now $1.1 million if it's in good shape," said Newport Beach real estate agent Sharon Grimes. "And it's not the house that has gone up so much; it's the location. It's the land."

Lido Isle is a prime example. Once considered marginal property, it has evolved into a desirable neighborhood. Because of Prop. 13, multimillionaires here live alongside middle-class retirees. County records tell the tale: out of about 900 homeowners, nearly a quarter pay $2,000 or less, as little as $714, in property taxes a year. Another 10% pay $20,000 or more, with the highest, more than $100,000, levied on a $10-million beachfront home.
Jane Howlett's late husband made good money as a chemical engineer, but she doesn't know if the couple could have afforded their lifestyle without Prop. 13. She sold her house for more than $1 million last year to move into a nearby retirement community. But she was paying taxes on the assessed value of only $141,538.
"When we moved in, these houses were nothing," Howlett said. "Now, my God, we couldn't have moved there on a plot. You hold on to that property if you have any brains at all."

Residents say there's something special about Lido Isle, once a haven for movie stars, though only Rat-Packer Joey Bishop still resides there. In this neighborhood, there are no gas stations or grocery stores, just homes, a few tennis courts and a sense of community and tranquillity.
Designed after a beach in Venice, Lido is criss-crossed by streets with such names as Via Lido Nord and Via Genoa, and tree-lined walkways. Boats, from dinghies to yachts, drift at anchor behind the homes close-packed along the shore. Tiny parks dot the island's periphery. Drive over the bridge that connects Lido Isle to mainland Newport Beach and time stops, or, at least, pauses. Children ride their bikes in the streets. The women's club organizes fashion shows & Easter parties. During the summer, residents sip wine and mingle at the Yacht Club during Friday-night barbecues.

That's a long way to come for a place once so undesirable that owners held a "disposal sale" in 1932 to sell lots as cheaply as $550. By 1935, most of the 800-plus lots remained unsold. Agnes Blomquist, who contributed to the book "Newport Beach: The First Century," wrote that she looked at the acres of salt grass and weeds and said, "Why do you want to come to this God-forsaken spot?"
But over time, Lido evolved, first as a vacation spot for Angelenos & inlanders looking for a weekend escape, and later, in the 1970s, to a residential community where people settled year-round. It is also a place people do not leave: one-third of Lido Isle's residents have lived there for more than 20 years.

"In recent years, compared to the rest of Newport Beach, I think Lido Isle has been undervalued," said real estate agent Alison McCormick, a third-generation Lido resident. "But in the last 2 years, people go, 'My gosh, beaches, a yacht club, playgrounds. You've got docks, tennis courts.' It's like a year-round vacation, really. It's become quite popular."
The median sale price is about $1 million, according to the 2000 U.S. Census, with an accompanying property-tax bill of about $10,000. Homes on the water sell for significantly more. The isle, once a collection of single-story beach cottages, has become somewhat "mansionized," Howlett said. These days, homes are knocked down to make room for bigger ones.

Milton Spielman, retired patent attorney who sold his home for $1 million, rocked on a patio chair in back of his 2 story, 4 bedroom home just days before moving and mused: "This isn't much of a house, I don't think." He bought it as a summer home, rented it in the winters and moved to Lido full-time in 1985. Strolling through the neighborhood, Spielman said he believes he's "at the bottom of the scale on Lido Isle."
"I can walk down the street and see a brand-new mansion, probably cost 4 or 5 million, modeled after an Italian castle or something," said Spielman, 79. "You feel pretty lucky to be here." If taxes had increased along with market value, Spielman said he probably would have sold and moved somewhere more modest. "Property's done nothing but go up in the beach areas," he said.

In the last year, the median home price statewide jumped 19.1%, according to the California Assn. of Realtors. That's evidence, officials from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn. said, that Prop. 13 is as necessary as ever. "It resulted in the stabilization of neighborhoods and allows people to stay in the neighborhood where they bought homes and not be forced out by increasing tax," said group's executive director Kris Vosburgh. "The basic benefit to both new & old home buyers is that you know what your taxes are going to be from year to year. One doesn't have to shudder in fear."
Cameron Quinn, 56, another Lido Isle resident, is also a beneficiary of Prop. 13. His parents bought his house in 1966 for $45,000. After they died, the house, and the benefits of Prop. 13, passed to him. The criminal defense attorney lives there with his wife and 18-year-old daughter. They pay $966 in property taxes for the home assessed at $95,403.

"Where else could we go where it would be less?" Quinn said. "The fact that the taxes are low is a salvation." He calls it a financial security blanket and a far cry from the Costa Mesa condominium where the couple first lived, with not much more than a television, a bed and an old piano. To the Quinns, this Lido Isle home is more than just a bargain. It's where he brought his wife after their first date, where his piano-teacher mom and family friends greeted them with a serenade.
It is also a legacy, passed from mother to son. And it will be passed on again, from father to daughter. "We wouldn't move," said his wife Neeta Quinn, 57. "This is where we're going to die."

More Californians at risk of losing homes
1.24.07   David Streitfeld

The number of Californians defaulting on their mortgage loans is rising rapidly, according to figures released Tuesday, providing striking evidence that more people are at risk of losing their homes. Default notices jumped 145% in the last three months of 2006, accelerating a trend that began in late 2005 as home sales started to cool. It was the largest number of default notices in any three-month period since 1998.

Analysts said the increase was not worrisome yet. But if the number continues to escalate, it could drag down home values in certain communities, they warned.
"So far, this isn't alarming," said DataQuick Information Systems chief analyst John Karevoll, which compiled the data. But if default notices "keep going up at this rate, it could get nasty fast," he added.

Home markets that are most vulnerable include the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, both of which drew throngs of first-time buyers even as the housing boom was ending. Such homeowners are the most at risk of losing their homes because they have relatively little equity in their properties, making it harder to refinance their mortgages.

Default notices are the initial step in the foreclosure process. In the fourth quarter of last year, lenders issued such notices to 37,273 borrowers across the state, warning them that they were at risk of foreclosure, compared with 15,196 during the same period a year earlier, DataQuick said.
Not every notice of default leads to a foreclosure, when a property is seized and sold to pay the mortgage. But foreclosures also are on the rise. There were 6,078 in the last quarter of 2006, up from 874 a year earlier.

Defaults and foreclosures fell steadily starting in the late 1990s as housing prices took off. In those heady days, practically anyone needing money to pay bills could refinance, cashing out equity from what seemed to be an endlessly refilling piggy bank.
In a stagnant or falling market, that option isn't available to recent buyers or those who have visited the pig once too often. Instead, many of those who are unable to make their payments must either sell the property or let the bank take it over.

During the mid-1990s, this process reached its peak as quarterly default statistics routinely exceeded 50,000 and foreclosures topped 15,000. (The housing stock has grown since then, making the 1990s numbers even worse by comparison.)
That era was one of the grimmest in modern California history, marred by the Los Angeles riots, the Northridge earthquake and an economic recession, all of which contributed to the collapse in home values. Today, the economy is healthy and unemployment has rarely been lower.

"I really don't see any distress out there," said Pacific Capital mortgage broker Chris Comer in San Marcos CA. "Most people getting notices of default are figuring out ways to get those mortgages current by any means possible so they're not kicked out in the street."
Most people, but not everyone. 66-year-old retired insurance agent James Brown in Salinas CA has a history of heart trouble. When he had an operation in 2005, he said, "the doctor gave me a 50-50 chance I'd die on the table. So I did a stupid thing: I refinanced the house."
Brown's goal in tapping his equity was to give his wife, Monica, a $100,000 cushion after his death. But he didn't read the paperwork carefully, and didn't realize that his monthly loan payment would skyrocket.
There was also a problem with the operation: It worked.

A year or two earlier, that would have been nothing but good news. In the early part of the decade, Brown recalled, "property values went crazy."
"People pulled up in Silicon Valley and went to Salinas, and paid here what they had been paying there," he said.
But Brown awoke to a different world. With the new loan, his payments went to $4,500 a month from $2,900. The $100,000 in equity he pulled out of the house went to his medical expenses and other bills.
The property has dropped in value to $750,000 from $899,000, leaving him without enough equity to refinance. He arranged to sell the place, but the prospective buyers couldn't qualify for a mortgage.

In September he gave up and stopped paying the mortgage. He's now in default, speeding toward foreclosure.
"Three times a week, they call and say, 'Where's my money?' " he said. "If I hadn't survived, everything would have been fine."

Brown's situation illustrates a potential wild card in the housing market that barely existed a decade ago. Lenders have invented all sorts of newfangled loans, many of which are reset to higher interest rates after a fixed period. The ability of borrowers to repay such loans, particularly in a weak market, is untested.
"People are living on the edge, and they can't help it with the price of houses," said Costa Mesa mortgage broker Barbara Swist helping Brown sort through his options. "They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream."

That's also the opinion of Durham NC based nonprofit advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending. Last month, the center issued a lengthy analysis explaining how millions of so-called sub-prime loans would soon turn bad. Sub-prime loans are made at higher rates, and include more onerous terms, to borrowers who don't qualify for lower-cost "prime" mortgages.
Sub-prime foreclosures would increase the most, the authors concluded, in states that had seen strong price appreciation during the boom. That would include New York, Virginia, Maryland and particularly California.

The borrowers most at risk are naturally those who bought most recently. The center estimates that a quarter of the sub-prime loans made in the Central Valley city of Merced last year will result in foreclosure. That would be the highest rate in the country, based on the center's calculations.
Eight other California cities, including Vallejo, Bakersfield, Fresno and Stockton, were among the top 15 projected foreclosure rates. That geographic focus is consistent with Tuesday's DataQuick numbers. The Central Valley, with about 6.5 million people, had 8,531 defaults and 1,646 foreclosures in the last three months of 2006. Los Angeles County, with 10 million people, had fewer of each.
For the state as a whole, the Center for Responsible Lending projects a failure rate of 21.4% for 2006 sub-prime loans, a level exceeded only by Nevada and Washington, D.C.

Foreclosed homes are typically sold at a discount, which can hurt property values of nearby houses. Yet even a jump in foreclosures, said, one of the report's authors Ellen Schloemer, isn't by itself going to bring back the dark days of the early and mid-1990s.
"It won't crash the housing market," she said. "There's still a lot of people who will buy homes and keep them. As long as no life event comes along that pushes them over the edge, they'll probably be OK." But, she added, they shouldn't get too confident.

Homeowner groups' power to foreclose is under attack   Lawmakers say boards have gone too far by seizing and selling units over minor disputes
6.7.04   Daniel Yi L.A. Times   Poletown

Alarmed by a flurry of horror stories, state lawmakers are rushing to resolve a long-standing complaint about homeowners associations: the power that they have to seize properties without going to court. By law, associations are entitled to foreclose on the homes of members who fail to pay their dues. Though most residents pay their bills before their houses are actually sold, thousands have lost their homes, sometimes over disputes involving a few hundred dollars. "It's legalized extortion," said state senior citizens advocate Marjorie Murray, many of whom live in condominiums & private communities run by associations. "Why should homeowners associations have such a power?"

Some homeowners association leaders say they need so-called nonjudiciary foreclosure powers, which allow them to take property without seeking a judge's approval, to keep neighborhoods looking tidy and to protect property values. Without such powers, associations would have little ability to require homeowners to pay assessments that cover the costs of such projects as new roofing in a condominium complex or landscaping services & street maintenance in a gated subdivision.
"Unless & until these debts are collected, the remaining homeowners must make up the difference, and that is unfair to them all," said Community Associations Institute lobbyist Skip Daum, a trade group whose members incl homeowners association boards, community managers and lawyers.

The Assembly & Senate, responding to recent high-profile cases, are considering 2 bills this year that would limit homeowners associations' nonjudiciary foreclosure powers. "One of the doctrines of our laws is that the penalty or remedy should fit the violation," said Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg D-Sacramento, whose bill banning nonjudiciary foreclosure passed the Assembly at the end of May. "Taking someone's home obviously should be the last resort."
Controversy over nonjudiciary foreclosure stretches beyond California as legislators from Arizona & Texas, among others, have attempted, with mixed results, to limit the power of homeowners associations. Still, associations in many states can simply auction a property after deeming a bill overdue and filing notices with the county.
An estimated 8 million Californians, about one-fourth of the state's population, live in communities governed by homeowners associations. About 2,500 residential developments governed by associations are built in the state each year, the California Research Bureau says. 40% of new single-family homes sold are in homeowners associations, the Public Policy Institute of California says.

As they grow in numbers, homeowners associations, a form of private govt whose elected board members enforce community rules and levy assessments, have come under criticism, even ridicule, over seemingly trivial regulations, incl what lawn ornaments residents are allowed to have or what color they can paint a front porch.The ability to take someone's home is such an extraordinary power that its use should be limited, even banned, critics of the practice say. Some associations are too quick to resort to foreclosures, sometimes over relatively small amounts, the critics say. Because the associations have little interest besides recovering the dues they are owed, homes are sometimes sold for pennies on the dollar, leading to huge losses for individual homeowners.
In Tom & Anita Radcliff's case, their association sold their home in less than a year over what began as a $120 bill. Citing financial & health problems, the couple didn't pay the annual dues. Their Copperopolis CA home, appraised at $277,432 and w/ $30,000 lien on it, was auctioned for $70,000 December 2003. The sale left the retired couple with about $68,000 after subtracting unpaid assessment & collection fees, and without their house.

"It just didn't occur to me that someone would foreclose over $120," said Anita Radcliff, 64. "It was outside the realm of my reality." Their homeowners association, Copper Cove at the Lake Tulloch Owners Assn, atty Mike Woodbury, said the couple were given warnings & opportunities to avoid the sale. "It is the obligation of the homeowner to pay the assessments," he said.
The couple filed a lawsuit in March, alleging among other things that the foreclosure was an abuse of collection laws. They are being allowed to stay in the home until the lawsuit is resolved. Melissa Colburn of Chula Vista, CA sued her homeowners association after it sold her $230,000 two-bedroom townhome for $5,150. Colburn, expert on hazardous materials, said she wasn't receiving her homeowners association bills because of a mail mix-up. She got an eviction notice in late 2002 from the man who bought her home, Carlos Sosa. "I thought it was a joke," she said. "I almost threw the piece of paper away."

Colburn, 35, settled her lawsuit and reclaimed her townhome at the Villas at Eastlake Shores Owners Assn. In the process of building her case, Colburn found that her association's law firm, Peters & Freedman, had acted as a trustee in other foreclosures in which Sosa had bought properties. In one case, Sosa paid $2,515 for a house in Escondido and, in another, $2,987 for a condominium in Bonita, according to property records in Colburn's lawsuit.
Colburn accused the law firm and Sosa of colluding to sell foreclosed homes at rock-bottom prices. Sosa & David Peters, of Peters & Freedman, denied the charges in court filings. Sosa did not return calls, and Peters declined to comment specifically on the case, citing the settlement's confidentiality agreement. "Foreclosure is a small part of our business," said Peters, whose firm represents nearly 600 associations in Southern California. "It is certainly not a profitable part of our business."

It would have been a potential windfall for Sosa, who stood to make as much as 20 times his investment. Colburn said her townhome had nearly $100,000 in equity after subtracting the $130,000 in mortgage still owed to her bank.
Experts say such profits are possible in part because auctions held by homeowners associations are not widely advertised, and associations are typically interested only in recovering dues & collection fees they are owed.

By law, the bids start at the amount owed, and any anything above that goes to the original homeowner. The buyer assumes some prior liens, such as the mortgage.
California homeowners associations can auction a property in as little as 6 months, far more quickly than county tax collectors, for example, who must give homeowners 5 years to pay. Their power is similar to that of a mortgage bank, which technically owns a home until its loan is paid and can auction a property without a judge's review if the borrower defaults.

Actual sales of homes are rare. About 1% of all foreclosure actions begun by homeowners associations end with the home being sold, according to the Community Associations Institute, which conducted a survey in 2002. Most homeowners faced with the prospect of losing their home at auction pay their debts, the trade group maintains.
Based on the institute's numbers and estimates of the number of California homes governed by homeowners associations, that 1% represents several thousand foreclosed homes in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of others are threatened with the action every year. Because there is no judge reviewing the process, the critics say, those who believe they are being wrongfully targeted have little choice but to pay their associations or file costly lawsuits.

Lawmakers would like to curb the trend and offer some protection for individual homeowners. A bill introduced by Sen. Denise Ducheny D-San Diego would prohibit homeowners associations from foreclosing for debts of less than $2,500 and assure that those who are drawn into foreclosure receive at least a portion of their equity: up to $50,000 for a single adult, $75,000 for a family and $150,000 for senior citizens.
"There is an increasing share of our population who" live in places with homeowners associations, Ducheny said. "And that raises all sorts of question about how they are governed which the Legislature has considered [in the past]…. But nothing is as visceral as someone losing their home."
The Senate passed the bill unanimously last month. Ducheny's bill is likely to be combined into a compromise bill with Steinberg's Assembly bill, which passed 69 to 10 and seeks to ban the practice altogether. A final version should reach the governor's desk later this year.

Banks really do prefer foreclosure
New study says loan servicers lack financial incentive to modify mortgages. 10.20.09  
Mark Huffman MSN Money

At the start of the foreclosure crisis, personal-finance experts urged struggling homeowners to contact their lenders if they started to fall behind on their mortgages. The lenders want to do everything they can, homeowners were told, to avoid a foreclosure. Now, the experts aren't so sure that's the case.
Consumers who have jumped through a frustrating series of hoops to achieve a mortgage modification, a lower interest rate or more manageable payments, are convinced that conventional wisdom is flawed.

Jason, of San Diego, said he's become frustrated trying to complete a loan modification.
"I have gone through the modification process but have been denied, although no clear explanation was provided," Jason told ConsumerAffairs.com. "I have been seeking assistance and guidance from quite a few bank representatives and have only received rude, misguided information."
In the last year ConsumerAffairs.com has received hundreds of complaints from consumers who said they followed loan-modification instructions, faxing requested documents repeatedly, only to have their applications disappear into a black hole.

"I faxed papers repeated times and was told that I need to fax more or that they never received them so they can start a modification," Maria, of Sussex, N.J., told ConsumerAffairs.com. "I made payments and they never credited my account. Now they call in October 2009 and they tell me that they stopped the modification because I never faxed out the papers. Is this a joke?"
Regardless of the loan servicer, the story seems to be the same. Consumers start down a road they think will lead to a modified mortgage, only to meet a wall of incompetence and indifference at the mortgage company. "We sent all information requested by certified mail," Regina, of Whitefish Bay, Wis., told ConsumerAffairs.com. "As the others have described, we have had to make contact. They do not respond. The usual answer is 'Whoever told you that is wrong.' I actually have a tape of one of their agents stating, 'I can't be responsible for what someone else told you.' Should they not be required to respond in writing? Is this not a govt-funded program?"

The Treasury Dept did, in fact, begin a loan- modification program in March to encourage loan servicers to modify troubled loans to prevent foreclosures. But the process has proved slow, and for many, frustrating. Meanwhile, foreclosures continue unabated.
A new report by the National Consumer Law Center says it's no mystery why loan servicers seem to be dragging their feet in modifying troubled mortgages. The report suggests these companies actually stand to profit if the troubled property goes to foreclosure. The report, "Why Servicers Foreclose, When They Should Modify, and Other Puzzles of Servicer Behavior," reveals that servicers, unlike investors or homeowners, generally don't risk losing money on foreclosures.

"One common-sense solution to the foreclosure crisis is to modify the loan terms in more instances," said Diane Thompson, an NCLC attorney and author of the report. "Foreclosures are a costly ordeal for the homeowner, the lender, and the community. Yet they continue to outstrip loan modifications because servicers have no incentive to help borrowers stay in their homes."
In almost every case, the loan servicer doesn't own the loan. It's simply a company, usually a bank, hired to collect the money from the homeowner and deliver the funds to the investors who own the mortgage. The investors lose money if the property goes to foreclosure, but the servicer doesn't.

Homeowners seeking to save their homes by modifying unaffordable loans typically deal with servicers. That is why the financial interests of servicers have the potential to hurt homeowners, the report says. Financial incentives encourage servicers to ignore the interests of homeowners. For example, the report suggests that servicers often deny homeowners principal and interest rate reductions because as servicers they find it profitable to offer repayment plans or forbearance agreements that do little to reduce homeowners' debt burdens.
"Loan modifications inevitably cost the servicer something," the report says. "A servicer deciding between a foreclosure and a loan modification faces the prospect of near certain loss if the loan is modified, and no penalty, but potential profit, if the home is foreclosed."

The NCLC report also found that the lack of third-party oversight allows servicers to pursue foreclosure instead of effective loan modifications that would benefit homeowners as well as investors. While credit-rating agencies and bond insurers do monitor servicers, their oversight too often encourages servicers to foreclose.
The NCLC report includes a detailed examination of loans in foreclosure from 1995-2009 and how components of servicer compensation affected the likelihood and speed of foreclosure. It also looks at the rise of the servicer industry as a byproduct of securitization, and the oversight of servicers by credit-rating agencies and bond insurers.

"The people who could change the way servicers are doing business: Congress, the administration, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the market participants who set the terms of engagement: credit- rating agencies and bond insurers, have failed to provide servicers with the necessary incentives to reduce foreclosures and increase loan modifications," Thompson said.
The report suggests that rule changes remove the financial incentives for servicers to block modifications and mandate loan modifications before a foreclosure as a matter of law. Until it does, the report says, the foreclosure crisis will continue.
"I feel that I have been set up to lose my house," Alesea of Kinston, N.C., told ConsumerAffairs.com. "Where is the justice in this?"

No sign yet of a bottom in home prices
Rising foreclosures, big new-home inventory push recovery into next year
7.24.08   John W. Schoen
MSNBC

When will home prices stop falling? The answer is critical to millions of American homeowners who are watching their home equity melt away or are unable to move because falling values have sent potential buyers to the sidelines. Even if you don’t own a home, the question is central to your chance of getting a good night’s sleep if you’re worried about your job, your bank account or the investment in your 401(k).

In the latest evidence that prices are still sliding, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that the median price of existing homes sold in June fell to $215,000, down 6.1 percent from a year ago. Sales fell 2.6 percent from the month before, far more than analysts had expected.
Richard Gaylord, president of the Realtors, said a recent survey found that nearly one-quarter of potential home buyers are "waiting on the sidelines." A major housing package passed by the House Wednesday after months of debate could help boost the market by offering a credit to first-time home buyers, the group said.

But forecasting a turnaround in any financial market is a tricky business. And the current housing market is vulnerable to a variety of unique variables that make calling the bottom even tougher. For starters, a lot depends on whether anything can be done to stop the ongoing wave of home foreclosures. As the inventory of bank-owned properties keeps rising, lenders have become eager sellers, hoping to get those properties off their books before prices fall further.
For the same reason, potential buyers are either waiting on the sidelines or making fire-sale bids. A surplus of motivated sellers and a dearth of interested buyers is pretty much the formula for further prices declines.

With mortgage delinquencies rising, more foreclosures are on the way. The question is, how many? Some of those at risk of losing their homes got in over their heads or were sold loans they couldn’t afford. As the economy has worsened, households that might otherwise have held on are succumbing to job loss or rising food and energy prices that are busting their monthly budgets.
Congress this week finally passed a major housing bill after nearly a year of debate, but the measure is expected to help relatively few borrowers. The bill extends govt backing and oversight to mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to keep the mortgage market functioning, but that will do little to help existing homeowners at risk of default.

Then there’s the question of oversupply. As the housing market ground to a halt over the past year, homebuilders continued to build, hoping that the downturn would be short-lived. As a result, the inventory of unsold homes rose well beyond what was needed to meet demand. Until demand picks up, that surplus will continue to weigh on prices.
Despite rising foreclosures and skittish buyers, housing demand continues to grow every year through the creation of new households, whether from children moving out on their own, new couples getting together or couples splitting up.

With current level of 111 million U.S. households growing by about 1 percent a year, new households will absorb about 1.1 million housing units a year, according to RDQ Economist chief economist John Ryding. That’s just about how much surplus housing is on the market. So even if new construction ground to a halt, it would take a while to work off that backlog.
"Bottom line, we probably have a year or more to go to grow into a better balance in the housing market,” said Ryding.
Home builders are still building, although housing starts for single-family homes fell another 5.3 percent in June to a 17-year low. Construction levels will likely continue to fall from current levels, according to Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. He estimates that the excess inventory of new homes is nearly 30 percent higher than levels historically seen for a trough in housing starts.

“We may have to see as much as a further 30 percent decline (in housing starts) from here,” Rosenberg in a research note.
All of which has home builders feeling gloomier than at any time since their trade group began tracking sentiment 20 years ago. The National Association of Home Builders index fell in July to a record low of 16; a reading above 50 means builders are upbeat about the outlook.

Even if all the bad loans could be cleared out to the system quickly, and excess inventory of new homes were cut to more normal levels, housing prices still have to come down from the irrationally exuberant levels reached during the height of the housing bubble.
There are several ways to measure just how far prices have fallen so far, although each has its shortcomings. The Realtors' monthly data on existing-home sales, which shows the median price down 6.1 percent in June from a year ago, only measures buying patterns for homes sold in a given month, which may not be comparable from year to year.

OFHEO, the federal regulator overseeing mortgage finance giants Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac, tracks prices changes for individual homes. The agency's House Price Index is down 4.8 percent nationwide for the year ended in May. But the index only covers loans under the $417,000 limit for Freddie- and Fannie-backed loans.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, which also tracks sales of individual homes, shows home prices off 15.3 percent for the year ended in April. But that measure only tracks homes in 20 large metro areas.

As with all aspects of real estate, price trends vary widely based on location; national statistics tend to mask wide disparities in price moves. Prices that soared the highest fell the furthest. Based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index, prices in Las Vegas are down nearly 30 percent from their peak, while homes in Charlotte, N.C., have lost less than 5 percent of their value.
Regardless of how you measure the drop in prices, the fundamental question facing home buyers, sellers, lenders and investors is: When have prices fallen far enough to offset the outsized price gains from the buying frenzy of the housing bubble?

Analysts say there are several historical benchmarks that are useful in estimating just how far house prices got ahead of themselves, and just how far they need to fall to returns to “normal".
Wachovia economist Mark Vitner recently looked at two historical benchmarks to determine how far out of whack prices got during the height of the bubble. One was the ratio of home prices to personal income. Home prices surged in large part because of the artificial boost in home buying power as easy-money lending practices put more money in buyers' hands than they could afford to pay back. Now, housing prices are falling back to levels that better reflect the average per capita income needed sustain a home purchase.

The price to own a home also bears some relation to the cost of renting instead. From 1983 to 1998, the cost of owning and renting equivalent housing was pretty much the same. But by the time home prices peaked in 2006, buying a home cost as much as 40 percent more as renting a similar home.
Based on those historical comparisons, and current trends income growth and rental prices, Vitner figures the housing market will hit bottom sometime between mid-2009 and mid-2010. When they finally do hit bottom, he estimates prices nationwide will have fallen on average between 22 and 29 percent.


    redlining
Hispanics, blacks lag in home loans ¹
Rising prices in O.C. are pushing them out of the market, report says
2.3.00   Kate Berry OCty Register

Hispanics & blacks are being pushed out of the housing market in Orange County because of rapidly rising home prices fueled by the hot economy and a soaring stock market, according to a new report. Home loans to Hispanics & blacks did not keep pace with lending to whites from 1995 to 1998, the Greenlining Institute, a San Francisco nonprofit that examines lending practices, reported Wednesday.

"We're not saying the banks are discriminating" said Nanda S. Bose, an advocacy coordinator at the Greenlining Institute, a coalition of 38 minority business, church and community groups. "This is an affordable-housing crisis that's going on, and people can't afford homes." The median price of Orange County homes sold last year was $240,000, up 5.7 % from 1998. Because of rising interest rates, the average monthly mortgage payment rose faster, increasing 11.4 % to $1,284 for the median single-family home.

Lending to whites in Orange County in 1998 more than doubled those made in 1995, while the %age of home loans to Hispanics fell to 5.5 %, from 10 %. Blacks fared the worst, at 0.5 % of loans issued, from 1 %, with a paltry 307 loans in all of 1998. Still, the total number of loans to Hispanics and blacks rose slightly in the period. The income gap between whites and minorities contributed to the disparity in home loans, the Greenlining Institute said.

It took Maria Heredia & husband Francisco 8 months to qualify for a loan on a 3 bedroom house in Anaheim that cost $135,000. "We were living with our parents because we couldn't afford to rent," said Maria Heredia, who owns a metal foundry for sculptors amp; artists in Buena Park. "It's very hard to qualify."

Thomas Borcich, state treasurer of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said mortgage lending in the United States increasingly is being driven by a rating system that assigns numbers, based on credit reports, that may unfairly penalize minorities. The system also works against borrowers who deal mostly in cash, he said.
"It's showing up in the minority areas, and it's one of the factors that keeps minorities from home ownership," said Borcich, who is president of Bixby Knolls Mortgage in Long Beach.

Roughly 72% of whites and 42% of Hispanics andblacks owned their own homes in Orange County in the period examined by the report. Hispanics made up 28% of the Orange County population in 1998, while blacks made up 2%. For years, bank executives have said lending differences were caused by factors beyond their control, including fewer applications from minorities and limited lending data.
But the decline in the%age of loans to minorities comes at a time when banks required by law to do a certain amount of low-income lending have increased their marketing efforts to such borrowers. The Greenlining report did not include govt-backed loans to minorities or nonconventional loans that require no down payment or allow for flexible credit arrangements.

"There's definitely room to improve," said Lisa Margolin-Feher, a spokeswoman for Bank of America, one of the biggest home-mortgage lenders in Orange County and nationwide. "We think it's an issue, and we're dealing with it." For low-income residents of Orange County, the report drives home the challenge of finding affordable housing. Orange County ranked 25th in a recent survey of the least-affordable metropolitan areas by the National Homebuilder's Association; 14 of the top 25 areas were in California.
The move by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to raise interest rates to fight inflation only compounds the problem, housing analysts said. "With the Fed raising interest rates, it tacks on $200 a month to a mortgage payment," said Bose of the Greenlining Institute.


Congressman seeks Nissan investigation
7.7.01   AP

Nashville TN   A congressman is asking the House Financial Services Committee to investigate Nissan's auto financing practices, citing a study that found blacks regularly paid higher finance charges than whites. The study by Vanderbilt University professor Mark Cohen found that black customers in 33 states consistently paid more than white customers for car loans arranged through Nissan dealers from Nissan Motor Acceptance Corp. "This study is disturbing and Congress should look into this with an eye toward finding out if the disparities exist with other lenders,'' said Rep. Harold Ford Jr., D-Tenn., a member of the Financial Services Committee and sponsor of the Consumer Credit Empowerment Act.
There was no immediate comment Saturday from Nissan Motor Acceptance, whose representatives did not return calls by Associated Press. Auto lenders, including Nissan North America, let dealers decide how much customers pay for loans. But class-action lawsuits filed against auto lenders, including Nissan's loan unit, argue that the lenders are responsible if dealers racially discriminate in setting rates.

Cohen's study looked at more than 300,000 car loans taken out from March 1993 to Sept. 2000. It found that 72.8% of Nissan's black customers were charged a markup, compared to 46.7% of whites. It also found that the gap between black and white borrowers was largest in Maryland & Wisconsin, where the average finance charge paid by blacks was about $800 higher than whites paid. Among the largest states, blacks paid $405 more in New York, $245 more in Connecticut and $339 more in New Jersey. In Texas, the black-white gap was $364, and in Florida it was $533. In Tennessee, blacks on average paid $499 more than whites.

Georgia law chills Latino home-buying market   A measure meant to deny jobs and services to illegal immigrants has even legal residents rethinking their future in the state.
6.19.06   Jenny Jarvie
L.A. Times

Atlanta   Two months ago, all Alina Arguello had to do to find Latino home buyers was put up a sign and answer her phone. But ever since Georgia passed one of the most stringent and far-reaching immigration laws in the nation, the number of Latino buyers who call the Re/Max agent's home office in suburban Atlanta has dwindled from about 10 to two a day.
"We're seeing a drastic drop," she said. "There's just a tremendous amount of people who want homes, but are not calling." Many real estate agents and mortgage providers who cater to Spanish-speaking immigrants across Georgia say that the flourishing Latino home buying market has faltered since April, when Gov. Sonny Perdue signed the Georgia Security and Immigration Compliance Act.

Almost immediately, Latino home buyers pulled out of contracts. Some who had already bought, put their homes on the market. Many prospective buyers stopped searching for homes. Although Georgia's new legislation does not prohibit illegal immigrants from owning property, many wonder whether they will want to live in Georgia when it begins to come into effect in July 2007.
The law will require companies with state contracts to verify employees' immigration status, penalize employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants, curtail many govt benefits to illegal immigrants and require that jailers check the immigration status of anyone who is charged with a felony or driving under the influence.

"For Latinos, buying a home is the American dream, but, you know, at this time they are hesitant to accomplish that dream," said Eliezer Velez, who provides housing advice for immigrants through Atlanta's Latin American Assn.
The recent caution among Latino home buyers has caught many real estate professionals off guard. In recent years, the Latino housing market has become one of the most dynamic and robust sectors of the ailing industry. A growing number of lenders now fund home loans with Individual Tax Identification Numbers, introduced by the U.S. Treasury a decade ago to collect taxes from illegal workers. The down payment required for these loans has dropped from about 10% to 3% in the last few years.

In Georgia, home to the second-fastest growing Latino population in the nation, 37% of Latinos are homeowners, according to the 2000 census. The number of homes purchased by Latinos in metro Atlanta jumped from about 3,500 in 1999 to 8,500 in 2004, according to data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.
But a $150,000 suburban ranch with a big yard is no longer as appealing to those who fear they or their loved ones could lose their jobs.
"This new law is definitely putting some brakes on Latino home buying," said HomeBanc en Español vp Carlos Mata, bilingual bank based in Atlanta, who said that based on the last two months, he doubted whether his company would reach its financial goal by the end of the year.
"I call it the public enemy No. 1 of the Hispanic housing market in Atlanta. Nothing, not the economy or the interest rates, threaten it so much."

On 4.17.06, when Perdue signed the legislation, many real estate agents here took calls from despondent clients. Real estate agent & loan officer Diego Castaneda in Norcross GA had 2 clients, illegal immigrants from Mexico, who were a week away from closing on homes in Atlanta's northern suburbs when they pulled out of their contracts.
Losing $1,000 in earnest money, they calculated, was preferable to taking on a mortgage when they didn't know how the new law would be implemented.
"They were just scared," said Castaneda, who has struggled to find new clients. Last week, he called the classified section of local Hispanic newspaper Mundo Hispanico to downgrade his $800-a-month advertisement: In the last two months, he said, it had not generated any calls.

GOP State Sen. Chip Rogers, who represents some of Atlanta's northern suburbs and who sponsored the legislation, said he was "very satisfied" that the law seemed to be prompting some illegal immigrants to consider leaving Georgia. "If someone is here illegally," he said, "buying a house would probably not be a wise investment."
But not all of the Latino immigrants who are uncertain about investing in Georgia property are illegal.
"A lot of people are connected one way or another to the undocumented," said Mata, who founded HomeBanc en Español in 2002. "They are saying: What will happen to my wife, my husband, my mother?"

Re/Max agent Dioris Medina in Tucker has two clients who are legal immigrants who planned to relocate from Virginia to Georgia. They have already signed their contract, but are having second thoughts about whether they would feel welcome in Georgia.
With Congress deadlocked over national immigration reform, many real estate professionals say that insecurity among Latino home buyers is not confined to Georgia.
"To some degree, everyone is sitting on the fence a little bit," said National Assn. of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals co-founder Gary Acosta. "If the national legislation is not intelligent, if it really restricts the opportunity of Latinos, it would be a major blow to the housing industry."

Acosta's organization, which has 17,000 members, recently projected that from 2002 to 2012, 40% of first-time home buyers in the U.S. will be Latino.
If the Latino housing market were to falter, Acosta warned, it would affect every segment of the housing industry. Realtors who do not set out to cater to Latinos would suffer if fewer people were looking for houses.
"Your client can't buy a $300,000 house if he can't sell his $150,000 house," he pointed out.

For now, real estate agents who cater to the Spanish-speaking community in Georgia are adopting more aggressive tactics. Nicaraguan-born U.S. citizen Arguello who has worked in real estate for 12 years, spends two hours a day cold-calling Latinos who live in apartments near the properties she is attempting to sell. She also sends her assistants to Wal-Mart to hand out fliers before she hosts open houses.
"I'm practically pushing people into looking at houses now," she said.
After most of his deals fell through, Congolese refugee Felipe Bernal, who has been selling real estate in Norcross for nearly two years, was in Los Angeles last week. He was meeting clients who want to invest in or relocate to Georgia.
"They are legal, more established," he said of Latino home buyers in California. "And they just can't believe how cheap the houses are in Georgia."

Ethnic Cleansing   genocide by gentrification
"Anaheim redevelops away the poor"

Disney 'fairy tale' isn't for everyone   Some low-income workers at the resort share motel rooms as the theme park fights efforts to build affordable housing nearby.
3.4.07   L.A. Times

The job description is simple: Make the customers believe that Disneyland is "a magic kingdom where life is a fairy tale and dreams really do come true." But at the end of the workday, many of the people who work at the "Happiest Place on Earth" sleep on air mattresses, in by-the-week motel rooms and in apartments shared with other families.

"I've been at this motel since 1997," said Derrick, a Disney security guard who pays $209 a week in rent. He spoke to me Thursday night while standing in the doorway of the room he shares with two elderly aunts at Arena Inn and Suites in Anaheim, about a mile from his job.
Derrick said he would jump at a chance to live in a housing development proposed for a site across the street from his motel. As proposed, 15% of the 1,500 condos and apartments would be for low-income tenants such as Derrick, who earns $12 an hour. But his employer is doing everything in its power to crush the project.

First, Disney challenged the right of a council member to cast a vote on the housing because she intends to open a wine bar in the area and might have a conflict of interest. With the council member abstaining, a 2-2 split killed the development. The developer appealed, and last week Disney rolled out the heavy artillery, suing the city over an environmental study that had cleared the way for the project.
"We feel we have no other choice but to pursue this legal action to protect this vital area," said Ed Grier, president of the Disneyland Resort.

The big cheeses insist that having several thousand of their own employees, or anyone else's, live in the Anaheim Resort Area would dim the prospects for generating more business, jobs and taxes. When Mayor Curt Pringle pitched a hybrid of hotel and residential units, some of them for low-income tenants, Disney screamed from the top of the Matterhorn.
Allowing people to live so close to the kingdom would set a "dangerous precedent," said a Disney spokesman.

Scott Darrell, who runs a nonprofit affordable-housing agency called the Kennedy Commission, can't understand why Disney is so opposed to the project.
"There's already housing there," said Darrell. There's a mobile home park where the 1,500 residential units would be, and just down Haster Street are several dozen apartments.
Disney argues those were built in an earlier era, but new development should be all about tourism. And besides, Disney is thinking of building a third park and wouldn't want any normal activity in the vicinity, like their own employees walking home from work. Maybe Disney should just lock them all on the premises at night and let them sleep in the Haunted Mansion or the Enchanted Tiki Room.

To be fair, I think Disney has some reasonable arguments, despite the odious attempts to make City Hall do its bidding. Maybe a 1,500-unit mini-city, with several thousand residents, should be a few miles down the road. But instead of trying to torpedo housing proposals, Disney could earn a few PR points by leading the way in making sure that working stiffs like the ones it employs have a few more options.

Disney Resorts gave $11 million to community causes in 2006 (companywide profits were $1.7 billion in the last quarter alone), but none of it was for housing-related services. Why not throw a few bucks in the direction of the Orange County agencies that are in the business of finding housing solutions, such as the Kennedy Commission?
Among the 100 largest cities in the country, Anaheim was dead last in income growth between 1990 and 2000, according to Eric Altman. He's with the Orange County Communities Organized for Responsible Development and said the combination of low wages in the hospitality business and extremely high real estate prices help make for widespread poverty in Orange County.

I met Altman and Cesar Covarrubias, of the Kennedy Commission, at the site of the doomed 1,500-unit housing development. At noon Wednesday, four women from the Peacock Suites Hotel's housekeeping department walked by on their way to lunch, and we asked about their living arrangements.
They said they make $7 an hour, and all but one of them shares an apartment with members of another family. In one case, seven people live in a two-bedroom that costs $1,585 a month, and in another, eight people share a two-bedroom at $1,125 a month.

I later spoke by phone to a hotel switchboard operator who said that for 20 years she commuted from Riverside to the Hilton Anaheim, sometimes spending four hours on the road.
"I can tell you, there's nothing cheaper than the Inland Empire," said Lori Condinus, who is on leave from the hotel to work for the union representing hospitality employees. Her one-bedroom apartment is $750, but the commute has taken years off her life.
"I just find it odd that corporate America will say it's fine that you come and work here and help us prosper, but doggone it, you can't live here. And now they've gone so far as to sue the city to make sure that we don't live here."

On my way to Anaheim on Thursday night, I spoke by phone to a woman who works in security at Disneyland and lives with seven family members including a nephew who also works at Disney in two motel rooms. When I got to town I met up with Eddie, a Disneyland Hotel bellman who lives with his wife and children, and his parents. Eddie took me to see two friends who work at the same hotel.
Pedro and his wife live in a $950 one-bedroom with two teen-agers. He makes about $11 an hour, and his wife makes minimum wage in a cookie factory. Sometimes, Pedro said, he goes without the medicine he needs for a thyroid condition.

A few blocks away, directly across the street from the housing development that's been scuttled, Antonio lives with his wife and 19-year-old son in a $900 one-bedroom. After 15 years working banquets at the Disneyland Hotel, he makes $11.27 an hour and fears he'll lose this apartment if and when Disney builds its third theme park.
"The rent is 70% of my salary," said Antonio, whose wife and son also work. Antonio himself cleans a house in Costa Mesa on one of his two days off. "My wife wants a two-bedroom, but I can't afford it. My son needs privacy. He needs his own room. But I can't afford it."

Eddie asked Antonio to show me his envelopes, and Antonio removed several small white envelopes from his wallet. One had his mother's name on it. One had the name of the bank where he took out a loan to buy his son's computer. One said "Rent." One said "luz" for lights, or electricity. He puts money in each of them throughout the month as it comes in, so he won't come up short.
"I know a house near here where 18 people live," Antonio said. "When am I going to get a house? It's a dream that will never happen."


Council agrees to help displaced find housing
Reponse to outcry over Anaheim's motel crackdown
2.2.00   Felix Sanchez Orange Cty Register

Anaheim   The City Council, responding to criticism that recent crackdowns on westside motels punish families down on their luck, asked staff late Tuesday to search for ways to find affordable housing for the displaced.But the council, in a split vote, continued to take a hard line against what it calls problem motels. It placed another business the Covered Wagon Motel at 823 S. Beach Blvd. under restrictions that no one can stay at the motel more than 30 days in a 90-day period.
It is the third motel in recent weeks that the council has placed restrictions on, a move housing advocates say will throw low-income families who use the motels as transitional housing onto the streets. City council members Tom Tait and Lucille Kring again voted against the crackdowns, saying they punish the poor.

A barrage of critics lashed out after the council last week imposed the restrictions on the Lincoln Inn formerly known as the Seville Inn. Tuesday, the council instructed the city staff and City Manager Jim Ruth to work with existing social advocates to assist any families looking for affordable housing. "Cracking down on these motels is leading to the displacement of 70 families" in the next few weeks, said the Rev. Jimmy Gaston, whose Church of Christ assists motel families.

Pauper Chase
Rancho Cucamonga nonprofit SCHDC CEO Seymour switches sides
from predator landlords to predator developers & still gets paid
by taxes from the working class he evicts

Let's nail down O.C.'s role in sloppy repairs
2.13.00   Shirley L. Grindle LA Times

For more than 20 years, various county departments have directed the rehabilitation of low-income family housing using federal Housing and Urban Development (HUD) money. The idea that helping homeowners repair their homes prevents neighborhood deterioration is well-founded, but by the summer of 1996, disturbing allegations of shoddy, unacceptable contractor repair work, as well as abuse of authority by county employees, were being made by many homeowners. The complaints were directed at the county's Housing and Community Department (HCD).
The well-intentioned goals went up in smoke when at least four untrained HCD personnel were allowed to oversee and direct the work of unqualified and unscrupulous private contractors.

The task of identifying qualified homeowners, writing contracts, conducting the bidding and contract award process and overseeing work was far beyond their qualifications. They were not trained. They were not contract administrators. They never had been licensed contractors and were not trained building inspectors. But they acted in all of those capacities.
Most of the rehabilitation work required state and county building permits. The records now reveal the HCD project managers were aware that permits were nonexistent for practically all of the projects. Not only were he contractors allowed to continue without permits, but without permits there were no inspections, which gave the contractors carte blanche to do whatever they wanted, with obvious cost savings.
More than just shoddy work resulted. In many instances, the homeowners were left with health and safety hazards such as water heaters plumbed with plastic pipe, improperly wired outlets and garbage disposals connected with lamp cords. Replacement windows were never sealed, which allowed winter rains to destroy mobile home particle- board floors. Double-wide mobile homes were left uncoupled.

In the two-year period that produced most of the shoddy and illegal work, four contractors were responsible for more than 50% of the projects. A report for the county in 1996 found:

    1) a pattern of inflated pricing over original bids;
    2) a failure to itemize;
    3) billing that almost always equaled to the exact penny the approved funding for grants or loans.
Many of the homeowners later would tell the U.S. Department of Justice investigators that HCD project managers steered them to those four contractors. Any reasonable observer would question why the HCD managers would hand over so much work to so few contractors. If the contractors produced acceptable work, rewarding them with contracts might have been somewhat justified, but this clearly was not the case. Shoddy-work complaints were coming in weekly.
Senior county administrators who were charged with HCD management oversight stonewalled the homeowners' complaints until the press picked up the story in January 1997. The next month, Supervisor Todd Spitzer accused county CEO Jan Mittermeier of covering up a sheriff's investigation of the brewing scandal in the HCD department. This investigation has never been released.
Was there a cover-up?

In April 1998, 33 of the dissatisfied homeowners filed a federal lawsuit against the county and eight contractors. In late December 1999, the county agreed to a settlement requiring it to repair more than 250 contractor-damaged homes, and pay for ancillary damages such as pain and suffering, inconvenience and loss of use.
The eventual costs to county taxpayers could amount to several million dollars. Furthermore, the settlement does not provide punitive action against any county employees or the contractors for their inexcusable performance. And it does not order barring the unscrupulous contractors from the county's "Qualified Bidders List," where all but one (who relocated out of state) remain today.
According to the current director of HCD, the county retains these contractors on its qualified bidders list because nothing warrants their removal. But if there are not grounds for removal from the list in the failure to obtain permits, in the avoidance of safety inspections and in unacceptable work, where would it be?

While the county denies any wrongdoing, the agreement to settle is tantamount to admitting its culpability. To determine if kickbacks or any other personal benefits were provided to any county employees or private contractors, an independent investigation by someone outside county govt is called for.

series: importance of home in lives of neediest Americans
For foster youth, homes to grow into
Businessmen house youth 'aging out' of system
7.23.02   Ina Jaffe
NPR

A faith-based initiative, part program, part business, provides housing for youth who have aged out of foster care. Dick Gochnauer & Gene Howard have changed Steve Rodriguez's life. When Steve "aged out" of foster care at age 18, he was free. That means he was "free of Orange County's foster care system, free to find a place to live, free to find a job, and free to find his own way in the world with hardly a dime to his name or a family to fall back on." Steve ended up on the streets, like many teens in his situation. But recently, he found a home to return to, thanks to Rising Tide. A new program that's more business plan than social service, Rising Tide provides apartments for former foster youth.
The strategy is sound financially as well as socially, says vice chair Dick Gochnauer of a company that supplies to McDonald's restaurants and one of the founders of the program. The program's backers, all successful businessmen who attend church together at Mariners Church in Irvine, CA., buy a large apartment complex, making all the apartments affordable for low-income people. By setting aside only 10 of the apartments for 9 pairs of former foster youth and one counselor, the members of Rising Tide managed to create a combined business & philanthropy. Gochnauer calls this idea "social venture capital" ¹ or "social entrepreneurship" and says it has been growing in popularity nationwide.

Rising Tide has established 2 communities so far, and thinks 8t more would be needed in Orange County, given the number of foster youth who will be leaving the system. Jaffe says the Rising Tide model creates stability not only for the former foster youth, but also for the local Orangewood Children's foundation, a Rising Tide partner. "The rents from the apartments provide a steady stream of money to pay for the services Orangewood provides," Jaffe says.
Over time, as the debt on the buildings goes down and the rents rise with inflation, the project should create an endowment for Orangewood. It is this business mindset that protects the program from "the vicious fundraising cycle that plagues so many charities," says Orangewood Children's foundation's exec. dir., Gene Howard. Howard is convinced that low-income housing does not need to be "tenement housing". "This is a place that anyone, I think, would feel comfortable living," he says.
And that's how Steve feels: "I'm really lucky to be in this program," he says, "and get the chance to show people I know that if I got a permanent place to stay I would go to work."

audio transcription   In tight housing markets, like Orange County CA, finding an affordable apt is a struggle for anyone. For foster children turning 18, it is impossible. Ready or not, they're essentially on their own. Many become homeless, some go to jail. OC network of charities & community groups is overwhelmed by too little know-how & not nearly enough money to give hundreds of foster youth who age out of the system every year a leg up.
When Steve Rodriguez became 18, he was officially emancipated, free of OC foster care system. Free to find a place to live, a job & otherwise to find a way in the world with hardly a dime to his name.or a family to fall back on. "So I ended up on the streets for a while, bounced back & forth from house to house. They let me take a shower there if I needed it. I would stay in a park or a laundry space. I didn't make it on my own for a while. At least a quarter of teens who age out of foster care, are homeless for their first few years of independence. Fewer than half get employment; 60% of the young women give birth. With no permanent place to stay, Steve had trouble keeping a job and had run-ins with the law.

"When you walk the streets, the only friends you make or people who will take you in are drug-users or friends whose parents don't watch who goes in & out of the house, a bad environment." Now, Steve smiles when he says he stays home every evening, because, for the past few months, he's had a home, his first in 3 years. He shares a simply furnished 2 bedroom in a rambling apt complex in Garden Grove, one of 3 dozen cities in notorious OC sprawl. The apt is part of the Rising Tide pgm providing transitional housing for former foster kids. There is nothing warm & cozy about the scheme; its blueprint is fundamentally a business plan, complete with task assignments, timelines and a complicated flowchart

It started at Mariner's Church in Irvine, a casual, contemporary congregation with ten thousand members. The 6 men who formed Rising Tide all attend church here. Dick Gochnauer speaks for the group. "One of the things we're trying to explore here is to develop a vehicle by which men & women of faith can give back beyond just giving funds."
The men in Rising Tide had been there & done that, given to charities and served on their boards. They're all extremely successful, real estate developers, investment consultants. Gochnauer is co. vice-chair supplying McDonalds with burgers, buns & sauce   [ middleman mktg poison labeled nutrition ] He says Rising Tide members were taken with an idea that's grown popular in philanthropic circles known as social venture capital ¹, social entrepeneurship. Instead of just donating money, Rising Tide members wanted to invest it, to target a problem in the community and use their financial resources & business skills to solve it.

Gochnauer says creating transitional housing for 200-300 emancipated foster wards seemed achievable. "There aren't very good statistics on this, but about 25% of the youth, are gonna make it on their own. They're either destined for college or a job and don't need the program. There is another bottom 25% that have significant issues that need far more structure than we can provide."
  [ Calif. chose to "provide" prisons rather than schools; the state ranks 48th in per capita education spending per Wash.D.C. based Education Week survey cf. OCWeekly 1.18.02 ]
"What we targeted was that middle 50%" Using their expertise in real estate & finance, Rising Tide members devised a unique strategy:

  1.   purchase apt complex, about 80 units. Down payment may come from foundations, grants, banks or Rising Tide members.
  2.   Make all the apartments affordable for low income people. This way the project is eligible for financing from low-interest bonds.
  3.   Set aside only ten apartments, enough to house 18 former foster kids & one on-site counselor.
"One of the founding principles was that the kids needed to NOT go into another group home."
[ It would conflict with profits flowing to elite minority if those most experienced at collective living use that expertise to establish a functional standard for aggregated social structure in place of the atomistically divided status quo. ]
"They needed to be integrated into society. Therefore, they needed to be moved into a facility that's like anybody else would live. They needed to be part of a larger community.
Rising Tide has 2 apartment communities so far. They're looking for more. It may take as many as 8 to meet the need. Gochnauer says they've been working on this since the late 1990s when housing for emancipated foster wards was a hot topic among OC social service workers. "Social service agency people involved in this issue decided the solution is that we'll get all these agencies together. A huge meeting spending lots of energy led to more meetings; by the end of the third meeting, we had purchased our first apartment building."

That was the Flanders Point apt complex in Tustin. Showing the pool & garden there, Orangewood Children's Fdtn head Gene Howard says "Low income housing does not have to be a tenement kind of approach. This is a place anyone could feel comfortable living."

Organizational partner in the project, Howard has worked with OC abused & neglected kids since 1980. Teaching life skills to ones leaving foster care has been a big part of their mission. Lack of housing for them sabotaged efforts to help. "You can't do well in school or maintain a job unless you have a stable housing situation. You certainly can't from long lasting relationships that help you through the tough times when you're constantly moving from one place to another. We found that most of our youth ended up couch surfing, finding a kind person, imposing upon them awhile, wearing out their welcome then finding somebody else. I think housing is the key to success for these youth."

The Rising Tide plan creates stability not only for the former foster kids but also for the Orangewood Children's Fdtn. The rents from the apartments provide a steady stream of money to pay for services OCF provides. Over time as the debt on the buildings goes down, rents rise with inflation, the money will create an endowment for Orangewood. Howard says it will save his organization from the vicious fund raising cycle that plagues so many charities.
"You go from one golf tournament to a ball, from the ball to a fashion show. You just continually move through very draining special events. You also end up writing constantly for grants. Most foundations won't give you more than about 3 years worth of funding. We've seen a number of programs terminated because no funding was available." The Rising Tide model could be adapted for other groups of people needing transitional housing says Howard, but it wouldn't work just anywhere. Apartment complexes need to be almost fully occupied for the finances to make sense. You need a housing market as tight as Orange County's. Rental vacancy rate is less than 3%. Average apt rent is $1200+/month, making need for affordable housing esp. urgent.

Tustin mayor Jeff Thomas says in generally affluent Orange County, cities don't always welcome affordable housing. "Part of the problem is public misunderstanding. They think the minute you start building affordable housing, immediately problems arise requiring police attention. Therefore, they tend to say we don't want that here." Nevertheless, City of Tustin decided to support the Flanders Point project. Without that approval, it would not have qualified for all-important low-interest bonds. Mayor Thomas says it is a trade off for the city. On one hand, affordable housing doesn't pay property taxes, so the city loses money. But he believes that is made up in other ways. "Sales tax rises when you attract people to the area. Secondarily, they renovated the project. We believe it improved the neighborhood." To seal the deal, Rising Tide pays the city an annual make-up fee almost equal to what the city would receive in property taxes anyway.

Budgets, bonds and the tax base are far from the minds of kids in the Rising Tide pgm. Gathering for their weekly Wed. meeting, they talk about work, school and learning to trust one another. This night they sit in a bare space inexplicably called the recreation room. Social worker Megan Bedsworth introduces a nervous young woman. She has just applied to the Rising Tide program, though Megan tells everyone she hasn't been accepted yet. As advice, one boy says "Rely on those around you. Ask them; they've been through it. I got out of class at 11am on my 18th birthday; the group home said 'Goodbye. You're 18 & can't be here anymore.' I was lucky enough to move in here next day."
Another girl says, "Stick with it. The worst thing you can do in this program is not take advantage of it."
Another boy says, "There are so many people here who have gone through what you've been through that no one is going to turn their back on you."

Throughout the meeting, Steve Rodriguez sits silently with his arms folded across his chest, hands pinned under his arms. After just a few months here, he isn't yet ready to offer advice. He is still mastering elementary challenges of his own life. "I've got to get myself up, make my own meals. If I miss something, it's my fault. I've been taking the bus to work so it's been a big new experience. A blessing, I'm lucky to get the chance to show people I know if I got the chance to have a permanent place, I would go to work."
When he gets up in the morning, he goes to a paid training program in carpentery. He likes it. He also knows he has to be ready to leave this place and lead a truly independent life in 18 months. A construction job could be the ticket. "It's pretty interesting to me. I like working with my hands. I like making things look perfect. I like looking at my work afterwards, saying "I did that, I built that."
When Steve imagines the future, the picture is still fuzzy. There is a lot more he wants to learn. But he thinks he'd like to have his own business some day, building houses. He knows he'd like to build a home of his own.

  [ Social venture's so-called "know-how" is more of the same predation that created market managed housing shortage. Instead of filling public needs with sound stewardship of resources like long standing traditions of civilization such as public baths & mass transit, SoCal land developers insisted on lobbying for building codes maximizing return on construction investment, intentionally or not creating a society divided hence conquered by the isolation of every residence having its own dedicated bath, kitchen & parking space required by legal lockstep.

Just as Michael Millken plundered the future by debasing long term investments via emphasis on speculative trading of junk bonds, once he was released from prison, he returned to what he knew best, plundering the future by means of social venture education programs pilfering public funds.
Likewise, having decimated the reserve of OC's arable land to generate debt indenturing & needlessly redundant housing, OC developers now raid the reserves of social capital allocated to the human refuse created by their own lack of planning to the degree that throw-away kids' best prospects are as wage slaves collaborating with the very same reckless promoters who squandered & mismanaged OC so rampantly as to foster conditions conducive to foster children
. ]

Orange County Register development coverage
with this much money involved, they breed like lice :

National Low Income Housing Coalition
National Housing Conference "affordable housing advocacy"
National Council of State Housing Agencies
HUD Community Housing Development Organizations
NMN govt links

Self-Help Homeownership Opportunity Program (SHOP)
CA Housing Finance Agency
California Redevelopment Association
Dept of Housing & Community Development
  "California's principal housing agency"
SD Access Ctr housing advocacy group
  Calif. Fdtn for Independent Living Ctrs



Blacks hit by housing costs leave SF behind
8.2.01   Evelyn Nieves
NY Times

SAN FRANCISCO   At 21 years old, Shanika Long is giving up on San Francisco, the city she was born and reared in and would rather still call home. Her mother tells her of a time when blacks owned certain parts of town, when the Fillmore District, for one, was a vibrant neighborhood with, she recalls, "a black-power- type mentality." But, like the Fillmore's nickname, Harlem West, those days are history. And Ms. Long, a clerk at the Labor Ready agency for temporary workers who has a 3-year-old daughter, says she wants to live where black people can afford to buy houses and rear children. "I'm moving out and I'm feeling like I'm being pushed out of San Francisco," she said. "The community now is, like, dead."
African-Americans, like Ms. Long, are leaving this city in droves. Over the last 10 years, as public housing and low- income projects have been torn down and as rents and house prices climbed to record levels, African-Americans have left San Francisco like no other city. Census figures show that while the city's overall population increased more than 7 % in the 1990's, the number of people who list their race as black fell from 79,039 in 1990 to 60,515 last year (with an additional 6,561 reporting some black heritage combined with another race, the first time the census allowed people to check a mixed-race category). That leaves the city of 776,733 with a black population of 8.6 %.

Other cities have had notable declines in their black populations over the last decade, Washington, for example. But blacks in other cities appear to be migrating to the suburbs in a pattern of upward mobility. In San Francisco, many are leaving because they have no choice Gentrification during the dot-com boom gave the city the distinction as the most expensive in the country. Landlords in black neighborhoods, much like others, cashed in, raising rents and evicting long-term tenants. The recent technology bust has had little effect in lowering housing prices, real estate experts say.
And since blacks have always been a relatively small minority here (13 % of the population at its height in 1970) the consequences are striking. The result, in one of the few major cities with a black mayor and a liberal political sensibility in sync with a majority of African-Americans, is a San Francisco with whole neighborhoods where it is rare to see a black person. It is a city where blacks have little clout, few cultural institutions and only one remaining neighborhood, the homely, lonely Bayview-Hunters Point, best known for a sewage treatment plant and radioactive Superfund site.

For many blacks here, San Francisco is the sweetheart who loved 'em and left 'em, who promised the moon and stars only to forget them when new blood came to town. In the Fillmore, there has been much talk over the years of establishing a jazz district in honor of the jazz scene that emerged in the neighborhood from 1940 to 1950. It was the heyday of the community, when the black population of the city grew tenfold as thousands of blacks came to San Francisco looking for war jobs, many of them at the Navy shipyard at Hunters Point. But the jazz project has been in the planning stages for years with little action. In 1997, Mayor Willie L. Brown Jr. promised to bring Bayview-Hunters Point thousands of jobs, a new stadium for the San Francisco 49ers and a megamall to go along with it. Voters approved the project in 1997, agreeing to finance it with $100 million in bonds. But the project was stalled when the 49ers owner, Eddie De Bartolo Jr., became embroiled in legal troubles and lost the team to his sister and her husband. The mall project is still in the talking stages.

Many blacks have little hope of things improving anytime soon. Even the black churches, the soul of the black community, have lost their influence. The Rev. Cecil Williams, pastor of the Glide Memorial Methodist Church, perhaps the sole remaining influential church, with more than 50 social and community programs, says that as blacks have moved, the churches have lost their base. "Naturally, you're going to lose some of that vibrancy," said Mr. Williams, who blamed "economics, first and foremost, the cost of living in this city", as the reason for the black exodus. His church is thriving, with more than 1,500 members of all races, many of whom drive from as far as Sacramento, 85 miles away. It also attracts busloads of tourists, drawn by the church's popular choir and band.
The mayor, through a spokesman, P. J. Johnston, said that not all blacks were leaving because they could not afford to stay. "Those who would tell you it's simply a matter of poor people not being able to afford to live in this City obviously don't understand the black community, or the City of San Francisco,` Mr. Johnston said. Some homeowners, he said, have sold their houses to cash in on the market and moved to more affordable cities. But, he conceded, lower- income renters "have had trouble keeping pace with this rise in housing costs, and many have moved to cheaper digs around the Bay Area."

Some are moving to working-class cities like Vallejo, Richmond or Fairfield, which have significant black populations and where it is still possible to buy a house for under $300,000. But census figures suggest that blacks appear to be bypassing Oakland, where African-Americans represent over a third of the population. In the last decade, that city, too, has seen a decline in its black population, from 163,500 out of 399,500 residents in 1990 to 142,400 out of 372, 200 residents in 2000, as gentrification forced some low-income blacks to the further reaches of the area. Black-owned businesses in San Francisco have also left. Fred Jordan, a past president of the San Francisco Black Chamber of Commerce, said: "There used to be 138 African-American businesses along Fillmore Street. Last I heard there were 32 left and very hard to find."
One that remains is Perry's Joint, a coffee and candy shop, on Fillmore Street. Perry Bennett opened the shop eight years ago, hoping to buy into the neighborhood's history. But now only 15-20% of his customers are black, he said. While the Fillmore has been losing blacks for decades — federal urban renewal projects in the 1960's displaced thousands of blacks to make way for a boulevard and Japan Trade Center, shops and plazas — Mr. Bennett started his business at a time when community leaders were talking revitalization. But even in the eight years that he has been around, Mr. Bennett said, he has watched dozens of businesses close and hundreds of customers move.

Like some other African-American business owners in the city, Mr. Bennett complains that blacks lack the unity and community spirit to achieve success here. "If we had that, in the Bayview-Hunters Point area," he said, "where blacks own all the homes, all the apartments and we had a black business district going all up and down Third Street, and we were a constituency that could put someone in office that is going to look out for our interests, we wouldn't be having this conversation." African-Americans do own most of the houses in Bayview-Hunters Point, but the prices of the modest starter house never kept pace with the rest of San Francisco's; homeowners who wanted to trade up were forced to leave the Bay Area to afford something better.

    SF Bay
Roach hotels
6.19.01   Carol Lloyd
SFGate

"Hello, my name is Bo Derek, and I live at the Mission Hotel," says the statuesque blond in a baseball cap. "As a HIV-positive transsexual I can say that in a lot of the SRO hotels, the bathrooms are really filthy, there are rats and roaches and I got spider bites all up my legs, on my body, on my breasts. ..."
For the past hour and a half, I've been listening to the humbling testimony of those who live in the city's single room occupancy hotels, known as SROs. I'm sitting in the lobby of the Seneca Hotel on Sixth Street and Market at the first hearing of the SF Board of Supervisors to ever take place in an SRO hotel. The purpose of the event is to hear opinions on a couple of ordinances that Supervisor Gavin Newsom has proposed, one requiring landlords to retrofit their buildings with sprinklers to help douse fires, the other to prohibit the all-too common practice of charging visitors fees for overnight or sometimes even daytime guests.

But I am here to see the folk that people these hotels and listen to their stories and their demands. I hope to glimpse the human face for which something as bureaucratic as a "sprinkler ordinance" could mean the difference between life or death. According to the housing advocacy group Mission Agenda, 15,000 to 20,000 San Franciscans reside in the 520 SRO hotels scattered around the city. The first thing that strikes me about this group is that they are extremely diverse. Like male-to-female transsexual Bo Derek, each individual seems to represent a world of his or her own. They are young and old, black and white, but also Vietnamese, East Indian, El Salvadoran, Chinese. They are thin and fat, strapping strong and carrying canes, dressed in shamanic garb and business suits. They are clean-cut, scruffy, dreadlocked; eloquent, rambling, understated.
Still, this motley array of souls do have something in common: They live in conditions most of us have only seen in 2 dimensions from the comfy recline of a movie theater armchair. They make their homes in small single rooms with bathrooms down the hall, in run-down buildings where fires frequently erupt, where visitors pay fees as much as $20 to enter residents' rooms, where rats often outnumber humans, and where the residents feel like they have to fight for their rights every step of the way. And for such privilege, they pay royally: usually between $600 and $1,000 a month but sometimes as much as $1,400. If that sounds relatively inexpensive by SF standards (though far too much for the poor), remember that this is for a 12-by-10-foot room and then do the math. This means $5 to $11.66 a square foot, much more per square foot than an immaculate 250-square-foot, $1,100 a month studio I recently saw on Macondrie Lane, one of the most exclusive and fabled streets in the nation. And like the rest of SF rental rates in the past three years, the fees at residential hotels have also skyrocketed -- going up anywhere from 100 to 400 %.

So if these characters seem just a tad unhinged, just a little stressed out, don't assume it's because they are crazy. Some of them are mentally ill, and plenty of them have substance abuse problems. But whether they are junkies or drunks or just regular guys who are down on their luck, the fact is that they are living in the most surreal situation that our city of oh-so-surreal estate provides. What strikes me as so bizarre is that today in SF, one of the most progressive cities in the world, and an urban center at the end of a massive economic boom, these people must still be fighting for basic rights like living in buildings that meet basic health codes and being able to have a friend spend the night. Now that SRO activist Chris Daly, who birthed his political career over the issue of "musical rooms," a practice whereby hotel landlords evict tenants after 29 days before they are entitled to rent-control protections, has become Supervisor Chris Daly, it's easy to imagine that finally the tables have started to turn, and that SRO residents will be afforded the protections and rights they deserve.
But if the tales and testimonials from the residents offer any indication of the hugeness of their problems, it's not something you can wave progressive wand at and hope will all go away. "This city does not have a coherent response to a fire," says Paul Heaney, a towering Vietnam vet and former resident of the Raymond Hotel (which was destroyed by fire on April 15), to an assiduously serious, well-tanned Newsom. "There were no fire extinguishers in the building. There were sprinklers but they didn't work. And the fire department did a great job, but there was no water on the fire for 20 minutes. Luckily, there were a lot of vets like me who broke doors down so that nobody died and we had no injuries ... We were very lucky. But one day it's going to kill a bunch of people. ..." Heaney goes on to explain that, in his opinion, the city failed the residents further -- not only through the absence of fire suppression but the fact that now, two months later, very few residents have been able to find permanent homes because of what he referred to mysteriously as "a cartel."

Later, when I ask Heaney what he meant by the "cartel," he says that because the Raymond residents were very organized and a tight-knit community the private SRO landlords saw them as potential troublemakers. Heaney claims he overheard a phone call in which one hotel manager warned another manager to avoid giving housing to people from the Raymond Hotel. Whether Heaney's precise claims are true, his suspicion about a private landlord cartel is a common one. And since 70 % of the SROs are run by people named Patel, many of whom are related, such facts fuel the notion than there is a concerted lobby of SRO owners who stick together. The most common charge against the landlords is that they help through neglect or outright arson to set fire to their buildings, although the vast number of fire investigations are inconclusive, and in no way end up pointing fingers at landlords. SROs have always had a high incidence of fires, but the past few years have been especially bad. Since 1997, 840 SRO units have been destroyed by fire. Such numbers, coupled with the precipitous rise in rental rates and the financial motivation for landlords to get rid of tenants with rent control, has led some residents and their advocates to coin the term "eviction by fire." While this phrase doesn't actually accuse the owners of arson, it does subtly point out the financial advantages of fire. As Ron Grossheart, resident at Mission Hotel and staff member of Mission Agenda, tells me over a soft drink: "With capitalism, landlords have a lot of motivation to burn down their buildings. Eviction by fire is not just a progressive slogan but a reality."

Are vermin, the threat of fires and unfair laws like visiting fees the only grievances? Unfortunately, no. Like many institutions that mix an unseemly cocktail of city bureaucracy, capitalism and poor people, the most complicated issues seem to be organizational ones. "Please, I beg of you, *please*," says one tearful woman to Chris Daly. "Don't let the master-leasing program end." Like many of the speakers at the hearing, the woman objects to the mayor's cuts in funding for a program wherein nonprofits like City Housing lease and manage privately owned SROs. She claims that City Housing, under the leadership of Randy Shaw, has done a remarkable job in transforming vile and infested "dens of iniquity" into decent, respectable places to live. The residents and nonprofits were petitioning the board to fight the mayor on this issue.
But not all the residents are sanguine about the City Housing program. "We need a tenant oversight committee," proclaims the monumental George Tirado, a spoken word poet, housing advocate at the Homeless Coalition and resident at the Mission Hotel. "Randy Shaw (director of City Housing) is promising us things like cable TV when there are roaches and rats in all the rooms, and the plumbing and electricity is second-rate." For Tirado, and others who feel that the residents have been left out of the process, the current program doesn't protect against corruption. "One of the staff at City Housing hired her mother to manage one of the hotels," Tirado tells me after the meeting. "And that's not right."
This is what's so difficult about the SRO struggles, the politics are a nest of internecine warfare. Beyond the black and white issue of dirty toilets and well-fed roaches, there's a complex of personalities all waging the good fight on behalf of the city's needy. And so getting to the bottom of a story is a little like peeling an onion. By the end, you're crying but you still feel like you haven't gotten to the core of the issue. …


Sophie Maxwell, a city supervisor who represents Bayview-Hunters Point, said projects in the works should improve the neighborhood. "Economic revitalization is what we're looking at," Ms. Maxwell said. "We're losing numbers so we're trying to identify and work on the assets in this community." The neighborhood's open space, parking places, vacant lots are all assets that developers are exploring, she said. Eric Martin, a 43-year-old salesman at the Record Shop in Bayview, said Asians, whose numbers are steadily climbing here, could teach blacks how to move forward. "The Filipinos come in and they got five families living in one house," Mr. Martin said. "That's how they do it, how they can afford it. Then they buy the house, then they buy another house. They got unity. Brothers ain't like that. It used to be like that way back in the 60's and 70's."

The major obstacle to attracting new life has been the Navy shipyard, which brought so many thousands of blacks to San Francisco during the war. Since the Defense Department closed the shipyard in 1974, the neighborhood has been overshadowed by its aging hulking buildings, several of which are contaminated with radioactive waste. Some see toxic waste made Bayview-Hunters Point the subject of scorn & ridicule as the one reason the black population has not been pushed out of its stronghold.

"It's what's killing this community and at the same time it may be preserving what we have," said Rebecca Logue Bovee, an organizer with the Housing Rights Committee. Deborah Dean, a 41-year-old cashier at the Record Shop, sees the plans to redevelop Bayview as a plot to drive out blacks, because "blacks don't represent the white tourism image of the city." "I live where you can hear the games from the new Giants ballpark and you can see the lights," she said. "And it's just a beautiful view. If it wasn't for the toxic waste, they would have taken this hill a long time ago."
housing in New Orleans
Rent / own in city of New Orleans
  •   renter occupied   53.2%
  •   owner occupied   46.8%

    vacant / occupied

  •   occupied   84.8%
  •   vacant   15.2%
  • % owner-occupied homes
    / price range 2004

  •   Under $50,000   5.6%
  •   $50,000-$99,999   27.0%
  •   $100,000-$149,999   24.2%
  •   $150,000-$199,999   18.4%
  •   $200,000-$299,999   14.4%
  •   $300,000-$499,999   6.5%
  •   $500,000 and over   3.9%
  • per 2000 Census map data; National Assn. of Realtors median prices; 2004 Census Bureau estimates
    Baton Rouge LA   Brandy Farris is house hunting in New Orleans. The real estate agent has $10 million in the bank, wired by an investor who has instructed her to scoop up houses, any houses. "Flooding no problem," Farris' newspaper ads advise.
    Her backer is a Miami businessman who specializes in buying storm-ravaged property at a deep discount, something that has paid dividends in hurricane-prone Florida. But he may have a harder time finding bargains this time around.

    In some ways, Hurricane Katrina seems to have taken a vibrant real estate market and made it hotter. Large sections of the city are underwater, but that's only increasing the demand for dry houses. In flooded areas, speculators are trying to buy properties on the cheap, hoping that the redevelopment of New Orleans will start a boom.
    This land rush has long-term implications in a city where many of the poorest residents were flooded out. It raises the question of what sort of housing, if any, will be available to those without a six-figure salary. If New Orleans ends up a high-priced enclave, without a mix of cultures, races and incomes, something vital may be lost.
    "There's a public interest question here," said Wash.D.C. think tank Urban Land Institute sr vp Ann Oliveri. "You don't have to abdicate the city to whoever shows up."

    For now, though, it's a seller's market, at least for habitable homes. 2 months ago, Steve Young bought a 2 bedroom condo in New Orleans' Garden District as an investment for $145,000. Last month, he was transferred by Shell Oil to Houston. Last week, he put the condo on the market. In a posting on Craigslist, an Internet classified advertising site, Young asked $220,000. He got a dozen serious expressions of interest, enough so he's no longer actively pursuing a buyer.
    "I'm pretty positive the market's going to move up from here," he said. So, to their surprise, are many others.
    "I thought this storm was the end of the city," said New Orleans-based Latter & Blum president Arthur Sterbcow, one of the biggest real estate brokerages on the Gulf Coast. "If anyone had told me two weeks ago that I'd be getting the calls and e-mails I'm getting, I would have thought he was ready for the psychiatric ward."

    Messages from those wanting to buy houses , whether intact or flooded, and commercial properties are outrunning those who want to sell by a factor of 20, said Sterbcow, who has set up temporary quarters in his firm's Baton Rouge office.
    "We're pressing everyone into service just to answer the phones," he said.
    These eager would-be buyers may be drawing their inspiration from Lower Manhattan, which proved a bonanza for those smart enough to buy condos there immediately after 9.11.01.

    Of course, in southern Louisiana, everything is hypothetical for the moment. The storm destroyed many property records and displaced buyers, sellers, agents and title firms, so no deals are actually being done. Insurance companies haven't started to settle claims yet, much less determine how, or whether, they will insure New Orleans in the future. The city hasn't even been drained.
    But people are thinking ahead, influenced by a single factor: the belief that hundreds of billions of dollars in govt aid is going to create a boomtown. The people administering that aid will need somewhere to live, as will those doing the rebuilding. So will employees of companies lured back to the area, and the service people that attend to them.

    All this will lead to what Sterbcow delicately calls a "reorientation" of the city.
    "Everyone I talked to has said, 'Let's start with a clean sheet of paper, fix it and get it right,' " he said. "Some of the homes here were only held together by the termites."
    What the owners of the city's estimated 150,000 flooded houses will get out of "reorientation" is unclear, especially if the houses were in bad shape and uninsured.
    Some black New Orleans residents say dourly that they know what's coming. Melvin Gilbert, a maintenance crew chief in his 60s, stood outside an elegant hotel in the French Quarter this week and recalled how the neighborhood had been gentrified. He remembered half a century ago when the French Quarter had a substantial number of black residents.

    "Then the Caucasians started offering them $10,000 for their homes," he said. "Well, they only bought the places for $2,000, so they took it and ran."
    The white residents restored the homes, which rose quickly in value. Gilbert said he expected the same dynamic when the floodwaters receded in the heavily black neighborhoods east of downtown.
    The question of who should own New Orleans is already sparking tension. The first posting seeking New Orleans property "in any condition or location" was placed on Craigslist on 8.29.05, while the storm still raged. With small variation, it was repeated numerous times over the next week.

    … The process of tracking down owners of deluged houses is greatly slowed by the absence of records. It's not going to be easy to find these people, said Farris, the Baton Rouge real estate agent. What would she pay for a ruined house? Farris demurred, saying it was too early to tell, but probably only the value of the land, if that.
    Though the French Quarter may be back to life within months, outlying districts such as North Bywater and the Lower 9th Ward will take years, if they ever do. Investors might hope this is the equivalent of buying land on the outskirts of a boomtown, but it's not a guarantee.
    For one thing, there are already proposals to convert certain flooded areas, including some water-logged neighborhoods, into parks. Under the Supreme Court's recent ruling broadening the definition of eminent domain, speculators could be forced to sell their properties to the govt.

    That would be a great outcome for many homeowners in the parishes south and east of New Orleans that bore the brunt of the storm. 6 months ago, Re/Max real estate agent Todd La Valla bought a 4 unit apartment building for $59,000 in the community of Buras, an unincorporated hamlet in Plaquemines Parish 55 miles southeast of New Orleans.
    The tenants evacuated in the storm, or at least La Valla hopes they did. He's sure the building is gone too, like just about everything else in the area. La Valla had no insurance, which means his $10,000 investment is probably a complete loss.

    Yet where there's disaster, there's opportunity.
    "I've had calls from investors in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, New York looking to buy property," La Valla said. "This is going to be hard for the poor, the elderly, those that didn't have insurance. But it's going to be great for some people."
    At first, Lucia Blacksher thought she was in the bad news group. In June, she and her boyfriend put their entire savings, about $35,000, into their dream house, a century-old shotgun Victorian in the New Orleans neighborhood of Mid-City. When the storm came, they fled to Blacksher's parents' house in Birmingham AL. The house, which cost $225,000, is partially flooded. Her boyfriend, a Virginian who figures he's seen enough of hurricanes to last him the rest of his life, wants to move. The insurance company won't return calls.

    Last week, Blacksher was worried she would lose her beloved house either to foreclosure or a forced sale. One of those bottom-feeders would get it. She was more optimistic Wednesday. Somehow, she would get through this.
    "Because the house survived the storm, it will be even more valuable," she said. "You could offer me $300,000 and I wouldn't take it. No way."

      San Diego
    Housing up, up   Prices rise, but low interest rates stretch the dollar   1.17.02   RM Showley & SD UT

    gold coast loft life pricing 1.17.02

    San Diego County's housing market cost a lot to enter as 2002 began, prices having soared for the seventh straight year. For December, the county's median price for all housing sales stood at a record $286,000. And for all transactions for the full year 2001, the median was pegged by DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla at a record $268,000. At the neighborhood level, buyers are snatching up the relative bargains that still could be had. But from Boulevard to Bonsall, from costly coastal enclaves to mountain cabins, agents said there was little of the buying frenzy, with multiple offers for many properties, that had characterized the market a year earlier. San Diegans shopped carefully, rarely panicked and savored interest rates that let them stretch their housing dollars further than any time since the 1960s.
    Bob Fields of Century 21-Carole Realty in Mission Valley said the big question of this year is whether buyers and sellers would fully recover from the shock of 9.11.01. "The first 2 weeks (of 2002) are looking much better than the last 2 months," he said. "For those people who were sitting by waiting for prices to plummet, it's obvious now, at least in SD Cty, that consumer confidence in real estate has nothing to do with that. People are feeling very healthy about the future value of their property and (have) a willingness to spend money." DataQuick, which tracks housing sales, also reported that default notices by owners continued their downward spiral last year to stand at only 3,630 actions, compared with the peak 11,621 notices in 1996. Owners of rapidly appreciating homes can avoid foreclosure unless they face dire personal emergencies. Another indicator of real estate prosperity was reflected in the median mortgage payment paid by San Diego buyers last year. It amounted to $1,399, based on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan at 6.6%. 10 years ago, the payment was $1,152 when rates were 9.3% and homes cost $100,000 less, DataQuick reported.
    As for which neighborhood will star in 2002, one can only guess it will be an old, overlooked community with charm hidden under the grime or a suburban collection of well-located tract homes. Here is a breakdown by area of housing trends as recorded for 2001:

    Central San Diego   San Diegans who flocked to the central core to buy homes last year were rewarded with some of the highest appreciation rates and lowest prices in the county. Sandy Booth of New Visions Real Estate in Golden Hill said the areas east of downtown attracted first-time buyers who like the lower prices and architectural variety in the neighborhoods developed from the 1880s on. "I think it's still a mixed bag," she said. "There are some fabulous streets and also some areas where it's densely populated, so it's a pretty big split here. It's very eclectic and kind of a melting pot over here." Logan Heights offered the lowest median price for existing single-family homes, $148,500, and the fourth highest appreciation rate, 20.9%, of any central neighborhood with 100 or more sales. La Jolla had the highest price, $915,000 and the lowest appreciation, 7%. In downtown & Mission Valley, condominiums vastly outnumber single-family homes. Prices for condos were off 1.4% to $324,500 downtown while Mission Valley condominiums saw a 20.4% increase to $155,000. Beach communities from Pacific Beach to Coronado experienced healthy gains of 10% to 15%, while inland suburbs from Scripps Ranch to Del Cerro recorded similar increases.

    East County   Spring Valley led the price rises in East County with a 22.9% increase to $220,000 in areas with at least 100 resale houses. Dave Underwood, owner of Real Estate & More, said first-time buyers, especially families with school-age children, are shopping east because of relatively low prices, larger lots and better-than-average schools. "You'll find spiffy stuff that's nice and ready to go," he said, "and you'll find other stuff that needs some spit and polish. Predominantly, I'd say the average home is livable but certainly could use some upgrades. People in this market will not spend a great deal of money to make it shine before they get rid of it, because there's so little housing anyway." For sellers, there is a hesitancy to place their homes on the market, Underwood said, because of the cost of buying a replacement house.
    "Oftentimes, that's why remodeling is so strong," he said, remarking that he has reactivated his contractor's license and bought franchises for several new home-improvement lines. Outside of Spring Valley, nearby communities such as Lemon Grove, La Mesa and El Cajon had sizable price boosts last year. Alpine recorded the highest median, $325,000, of any ZIP code in the area with at least 100 resale houses. But the increase from 2000 was only 3.6%. The East County condo market saw large price rises of as much as 32.7% in Lakeside to $112,750. But sales dropped in most neighborhoods.

    North County Inland   Prices rose more modestly in North County, both coastal and inland, than elsewhere, perhaps because neighborhoods saw big run-ups after the local economy turned upward in the mid- 1990s. Typical was San Marcos, where prices in two ZIP codes rose 14% and 14.7% last year to between $250,000 and $285,000. "Most of the buyers are San Diego people who are looking for affordable housing and a relatively easy commute to different locations," said Vicki Stowe, co-owner of Re-Max Prime Properties. "San Marcos, although inland, still has some pretty parts, probably 5 miles from the beach. It has a diverse climate and also a very diverse population." The presence of CSU San Marcos also drew many buyers desiring to be near a university campus, she said.
    The area's main competition comes from Temecula Valley and other areas in southern Riverside County, where prices are running in many comparable developments at least 30% less than in San Diego. "People will commute to Temecula, but I think we also see that they do their commute for a number of years and decide, 'We'd like to come back to San Diego.' " Besides San Marcos, Julian, Escondido, Fallbrook and Ramona had strong price appreciation last year, while Rancho Santa Fe took a breather, rising only 3% to a $1.7 million median on sales that were off 47% from 2000.

    North County Coast   Home sales in the county's pricier areas, especially the north coastal region, clearly softened and in some cases showed steep declines. Yet in most of Oceanside, sales were not as flat as the rest of the coastal area, although housing costs still posted a healthy increase. The county's northernmost coastal city, Oceanside is one of the few areas in close proximity to the ocean where housing is still considered affordable. In two out of the three ZIP codes in Oceanside, resales declined by less than 5%, compared with double-digit drops in many other north coast communities. "It appears to me that this North County coast, it's all getting softer because of price, fewer buyers and not to mention what's going on in the economy," said real estate broker Jeff Wagner of Excel Properties. "Low interest rates have held the prices up or kept them status quo because you're getting more for the dollar. But if we have any rise in interest rates, it should depreciate pretty quickly. "It takes two strong dual incomes to get into those (coastal area) homes and we're just out of buyers."
    And while Oceanside did see a drop in sales, that's largely due to a lack of inventory in an area that's still seen as affordable, say real estate agents. Until recently, Oceanside was a "well-kept secret," said broker Bob Miller, of Coast & Country Real Estate. "There really weren't a whole lot of listings . . . last year because people just discovered Oceanside as a coastal area that compares favorably to Carlsbad, Encinitas and other coastal communities," Miller said. "You can't find anything for under $200,000 in Oceanside. When I was selling real estate in 1995, you could buy a four-bedroom house for $150,000, but the market's radically increased. And condos I used to sell for $60,000 eight (or) nine years ago now sell for $140,000 easy."

    South County   In the South Bay, sales dropped less than in much of the rest of the county. Most notably, the older sections of Chula Vista showed only a modest drop in sales, while the eastern suburbs of the city saw an uptick in sales activity last year. As in East County, affordability is driving home buyers to the area, say real estate experts. "Sales are doing well because people who've been here for a while are selling their homes and buying newer homes here, and people who've been renting are buying relatively less expensive homes in the older parts of Chula Vista," said Clarke Dennison, owner of Dennison Realty. "A lot of people from North County are now looking to South County because you can get so much more for what you pay."
    Like Oceanside, Imperial Beach is yet another coastal community where prices are more affordable -- but climbing quickly. While sales were down by more than 22%, the median price there shot up by 27%. "People finally discovered Imperial Beach," Dennison said. "It's a nice place to live now. The city fathers kicked out all the bums and cleaned up the coastal area and got rid of the low-life bars."


    Activist tries a grab for jurist's property   A foe of the high court's eminent domain ruling wants to apply it to seize David H. Souter's home.
    6.30.05   Benjamin Weyl
    L.A. Times   ã

    Wash.D.C.   An activist angered by a Supreme Court property-rights decision proposed this week that the town of Weare, N.H., give Justice David H. Souter a taste of his own legal medicine. Souter, who owns a home in the south-central New Hampshire town, voted with the majority last week in the case of Kilo vs. City of New London. The court found that the Connecticut city could use the power of eminent domain to seize private property to make way for an urban redevelopment project that would provide broad economic benefits to the community.

    The proposal to seize Souter's modest home, though it may be far-fetched, has gained support from conservatives across the country. It showed up in a letter faxed to a Weare town official Monday. In the letter, Logan Darrow Clements, a Los Angeles resident who is described on his company's website as chief executive of Freestar Media, proposed building a hotel on Souter's property.
    "The justification for such an eminent domain action is that our hotel will better serve the public interest as it will bring in economic development and higher tax revenue to Weare," Clements wrote.
    In an interview, Clements said he was inspired to take action by the book "Atlas Shrugged" and by its author, Ayn Rand, an apostle of capitalism and what she called "rational self interest."

    A spokeswoman for the Supreme Court, Kathy Arberg, declined to comment Wednesday. Those familiar with Souter's home site said it was an unlikely spot for a hotel.
    Clements said in a press statement that his proposal "is not a prank" and that he planned to raise investment capital from "liberty advocates" around the country to build a "Lost Liberty Hotel," with a dining room called "Just Desserts Cafe." Each hotel room would offer guests a bedside copy of Rand's "Atlas Shrugged."
    The proposal pleased 100 or so conservatives at the regular Wednesday morning strategy meeting hosted in Washington by Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative organization.
    "Let's go rock and roll," Norquist said after hearing of Clements' idea.

    The plan "highlights just how awful this decision was, and how divorced it was from any sense of justice and rights," Norquist said. He said that the New London case showed the importance of a president's Supreme Court nominations, and predicted that it would ignite a backlash.
    "This decision will be remembered 20 years from now by the right as a decision as important as Roe vs. Wade," the 1973 decision guaranteeing a woman's right to an abortion.
    The Institute for Justice, a libertarian public interest law firm in Washington, said Wednesday it would devote $3 million to its "Hands Off My Home" campaign in the wake of the Supreme Court decision.

    Clements faxed his letter to Charles Meany, code enforcement officer for Weare, a community of 6,865.
    "I am taking it seriously," Meany said of Clements' letter. He said it had generated e-mail from across the country supporting the hotel initiative. "I have to afford him all the due process under the law."
    But, making clear the difficult path Clements faced, he said: "In New Hampshire, we really kind of consider our land a sacred thing and no one can really fiddle with it."

    Riskiest place to buy a home
    4.6.06   Will Carless Voice of San Diego

    The area's home prices have a 60% chance of dropping, one of many factors making San Diego the riskiest real estate market in the nation, according to a quarterly report put out by a California mortgage insurer.
    The report, put out by the Bay Area insurance company PMI Group, is well-respected by experts, who said it usually gives an accurate picture of the state of the nation's 50 largest home-buying markets. However, they stressed that the report is merely the latest in a long line of analyses that point to something the industry already knows: The nation's housing market is cooling, and San Diego is ahead of the curve.

    "You guys are leading the nation; congratulations," remarked UCLA Anderson Forecast sr analyst Chris Thornberg. Last year at this time, the quarterly report ranked the San Diego region as the fifth-riskiest market in the nation. That report put Boston as the riskiest.
    Topping out the top five riskiest markets in the nation were Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine; Boston; Nassau/Suffolk, New York; Riverside/San Bernardino; and Sacramento.

    The report bases its ratings for each individual market on 3 factors: How well the local economy is doing; how much and how quickly home prices are appreciating; and the affordability of housing in that market. San Diego's took a hard knock because of the third criterion. The area's homes are among the least affordable in the nation, according to PMI's data. People who buy them are more likely to default on their mortgages despite the relatively strong local economy.

    The area is also suffering from a slowed price appreciation. In the last few years, San Diego's risk factor has been tempered by consistent price increases. But those increases dropped dramatically from last quarter, compounding the poor score the area received in the report.
    London Group Realty Advisors president Gary London in San Diego said the report adds to the "parade of statistical indicators" showing that the real estate market is slowing. However, he doesn't think that slowdown is going to affect most homeowners, but only people on the fringes of the market.
    That means people who have bought in the last year and who need to sell this year, or people who have entered into mortgages that they simply cannot afford, London said. Those people should probably be concerned at the signals the market is giving off, he said.

    Even if prices do drop, London said, that's only going to open the door to a lot of people who have been watching the market from the sidelines, unwilling to get into the action. If prices drop, even slightly, he said, there are a lot of people waiting to buy.
    PMI spokeswoman Stephanie Corns said the purpose of the report is to better inform home buyers and sellers about the real estate market. She said that people looking to buy a home need to consider how risky an area is before buying there. That's especially important when a buyer is considering buying their home using a non-traditional loan such as an interest-only mortgage, she said.

    "Some of the exotic (loan) products transfer a lot of the risks to the borrower, so you really need to gauge what amount of risk you are comfortable taking on. Are you comfortable having a lot of risk in your mortgage and a lot of risk in your market area?"
    However, Corns stressed that PMI still considers buying a home to be a safe investment on the whole, even in risky markets like San Diego. She said the company's research has shown that real estate prices always increase in the long term, so buying a house is always a sensible long-term strategy.

    University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Ctr for Real Estate economics prof. Alan Gin said the report is certainly worth considering for home-buyers before they take out a mortgage, but he pointed out that the riskiness of a market is not likely to be the defining factor for a potential buyer.
    "It gives you more information, but you probably shouldn't base your decision exclusively on this information," Gin said.

    S.D. seeks to buy land for urban parks
    Talks begin with owners of downtown properties
    8.28.04   J.Heller, B.Wood & Erin Hobbs SD UT

    Get ready for the greening of downtown San Diego. The city has opened negotiations with downtown property owners to buy land for a series of urban parks. The plan is to build at least 7 parks & plazas over the next 10 years for an estimated $212 million. The money would come from property taxes, proposed fees paid by builders and possibly the transfer of development rights.
    One of the first parks is envisioned for the East Village and would span more than 2 blocks, roughly the size of the Park at the Park, which opened this year next to Petco Park. Others would be smaller parks or landscaped plazas.
    Mark Frederick of Carlsbad owns 2 parcels on 14th St in East Village. City downtown redevelopment agency Centre City Development Corp. has approached him about buying the land. "I love the idea," Frederick said. "There's not a better use for that property than a park." Frederick said he has talked to developers who want to build high-rise condominiums on the land, but he'd rather see it become green space. He said he and the agency are discussing having a historic house on the property moved to a different site and preserved.

    The parks are part of the Downtown Community Plan Update, a blueprint for growth. A committee of city officials and downtown property and business owners is drafting the update, which is expected to be approved by the City Council next year. Councilman Michael Zucchet, whose district includes downtown, said he expects the council to approve a piece of that plan, the Downtown Parks Master Plan, by October (2004).
    "We have tens of thousands of people relocating downtown, so we need to look at the infrastructure, especially parks," Zucchet said. Forecasts show downtown's population growing from 20,000 today to about 80,000 by 2025.

    With developers still rushing to buy land for condominium projects, it is crucial to start identifying parcels for parks while they are still available, said community plan update subcommittee chair Rob Quigley. "To wait even another year might be disastrous," Quigley said.
      [ "Eminent domain's invocation as rapidly applies to new as old for "public benefit" ]
    Some of the parks would be built as part of "neighborhood centers," clusters of shops, restaurants and housing. Some would be built over earthquake faults, where development is restricted. The city also is considering building large deck structures over Interstate 5 in Little Italy & East Village and using that space as parks.

    "I think downtown deserves community parks just like every other neighborhood," Zucchet said. Few would disagree with that, but creating parks in the city's booming urban core is no easy task.
    "The biggest challenge is really financial," said community plan update subcommittee chair Kevin deFreitas. "Acquiring the property at today's prices is the most onerous obstacle."
    Gary London, a real estate consultant and analyst, represents a land owner on 14th St. While the owner, who was not available for comment, is willing to part with her property, she's interested in dealing for future development rights rather than a straight cash transaction, London said. The complex deal would start with the assumption that the more you're allowed to build on a plot of land, the more value it has. An owner who can construct a condominium high-rise on a parcel has more value in that property than if only a single-family house were allowed to be built there.

    Under the deal envisioned by London, instead of cash the owner would receive the right to develop a project elsewhere downtown that would be much more dense than would otherwise be allowed on the land she now owns. She also would be able to sell her development rights to another builder on the private market.
    The agency is considering such a deal for this owner and others. It is technically known as a "transfer of density rights" and is practiced in many other cities, said agency president Peter Hall. But Hall prefers to keep the transaction in the public realm and avoid what he fears would become a "black market" for selling density rights.

    Hall sees potential deals working this way: Say there's a block that could theoretically hold 200 condominium units under current law. The agency buys half of that land for a park and gives the owner the right to build all 200 units on the remaining half, doubling the density rights on the remaining portion.
    It would be wrong to turn this into an opportunity for rampant speculation, Hall said, by allowing private transfers of development rights. "There should be no winners or loser in these transactions other than the public in general," Hall said.

    Not every land owner is expected to be as enthusiastic as Frederick. Although agency officials said they'd prefer to avoid condemning land and taking it through eminent domain, that tool remains at their disposal. "I think, ultimately, it will be necessary with some of them," said contracting & public works manager David Allsbrook, one of the agency's negotiators.
    The council also is considering imposing a fee on developers who build projects downtown to help pay for the parks. The fee would be an estimated $3,660 per residential unit and $1.86 per square foot for office buildings and hotels built over the next 20 years.

    Downtown has had parks for about as long as San Diego has been a city. The green space known today as Pantoja Park in the Marina District has operated as a park since the mid-1850s. Horton Park, next to Horton Plaza, has been around nearly as long.
    Embarcadero Marina Park was created in 1976; Children's Park, with its controversial mounds, was built near the Convention Center in 1996; Amici Park in Little Italy was dedicated in 1997; and the Park at the Park opened in April.

    Cafe blocks city land-grab
    8.12.04   Don Bauder
    SD Reader   nfp

    On July 30, the Michigan Supreme Court stuck a dagger into govt's abusive use of eminent domain, seizing property from one private owner and handing it to a richer owner in the name of economic development. Although California law differs from Michigan's, the case could one day help thwart San Diego's so-called "public/private partnerships" that redistribute property from the poor and powerless to the rich and politically connected
    . San Diego atty Karen Frostrom is fighting in court on behalf of Ahmed Mesdaq, whose Gaslamp Quarter cigar & coffee lounge has been condemned by eminent domain. Centre City Development Corp. wants a luxury hotel built on Mesdaq's Gran Havana location. The city council as redevelopment agency voted to seize Mesdaq's property in April. With Centre City's full approval, he has spent more than $2 million purchasing and refurbishing it. But Centre City argues that a Marriott four-star hotel on the site would produce more transient occupancy (hotel) and property-tax revenue.

    That line of nonreasoning is exactly what the highest Michigan court shot down 7.30.04. Frostrom intends to put the Michigan case to good use. Mesdaq has one suit against the city in federal court, another in superior court. The city is suing him in state court. The Michigan court's move "was a wonderful decision," says Frostrom, who will argue in federal court that the city cannot go forward with the condemnation because it is unconstitutional. On Friday, she asked the court for a preliminary injunction blocking the city from seizing the property.
    She reads from the Michigan decision: "To justify the exercise of eminent domain solely on the basis of the fact that the use of that property by a private entity seeking its own profit might contribute to the economy's health is to render impotent our constitutional limitations on the govt's power of eminent domain."
    Says Frostrom, "That is my argument in a nutshell." She has two other clients fighting possible eminent domain actions in Little Italy.

    In 8.3.04 editorial, Wall St Journal noted "economic development argument has essentially vitiated what the Founders intended by putting property rights in the Constitution in the first place: to prevent the rich & powerful from manipulating the law to take property from those less well connected."
    The latest Michigan ruling, knocking down Wayne County's desire to seize private land for an industrial park, reversed the high court's notorious "Poletown" decision of 1981.
    Detroit used the power of eminent domain to bulldoze a racially mixed community, largely Polish-American, to make way for a General Motors plant. More than 1300 homes, 140 businesses, 6 churches, and a hospital vanished. Detroit's mayor promised the factory would produce 6000 jobs. "In reality, the plant employed less than half that many. More jobs were probably lost as a result of the destruction of Poletown than were created by the factory," argued Ilya Somin, a legal scholar, in the Detroit News early this year.

    "It was such a horrible case," says Loyola Law School emeritus law prof. Gideon Kanner in Los Angeles, who represented Sisters of Mercy Hospital. Govt spent "millions and millions of dollars" and turned the land over to General Motors for a fraction of the total cost. "It was supposed to revitalize Detroit and did no such thing."
    Worse, Poletown 1981 was used to justify many similar seizures nationwide. Originally, eminent domain was only to be used to make way for such things as highways & bridges.
    But beginning in 1954, says Kanner, the interpretation was gradually loosened. After Poletown 1981, almost any govt could justify theft of private property by claiming it was a "public benefit", not "public use." Perhaps the most egregious: the New Jersey Casino Redevelopment Authority decided to condemn an Atlantic City neighborhood so Donald Trump could expand a limousine parking lot at a casino. The Washington, D.C.based Institute for Justice went to bat for the homeowners and got a favorable court decision.
    (Incidentally, if you read a best-seller about what a great businessman Trump is or see a TV show touting his business prowess, you should know this: his Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts has never been profitable since going public in 1995 and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy late Monday.)

    There have been other successes, says Kanner. In 2002, the Illinois Supreme Court knocked down an attempt by a developmental authority to seize private land for racetrack parking. Kanner won the biggest California victory. 3 years ago, the Lancaster Redevelopment Agency tried to seize the property of a 99 Cents Only Store so that a neighboring discounter, Costco, could expand. Lancaster noted that 99 Cents produced only $40,000 a year in sales taxes, while Costco produced $400,000.
    But the judge pointed out that Costco announced plans to expand almost immediately after 99 Cents opened. Unfortunately, "The city [of Lancaster] gave up, and Costco gave up," says Kanner, so an appellate court did not get a chance to rule.

    He is hoping a case against New London CT, which seized well-maintained homes so Pfizer could build a plant, hotel, and condos for its employees, makes it to the U.S. Supreme Court.
    "For us, the Lancaster case is even more persuasive than the Michigan case," says Frostrom. "It's in California's Ninth Circuit. The court says you can't condemn someone's property to appease a corporation that just wants to get bigger. That's just what's happening [in the Mesdaq case]." She has material showing Marriott's architect said that Marriott could build the hotel on 35,000 square feet of property next to Mesdaq's cigar shop. "They knew in January of this year they didn't need Ahmed's property. The city knew and didn't tell Ahmed."

    City atty Bruce W. Beach says this argument was "discussed & rejected" by involved administrative agencies, including Centre City.
    "It will be an uphill fight" to get reform cases to the California Supreme Court, says Kanner, noting that California law is stacked in favor of redevelopment agencies. "But at one time, you couldn't get through the courthouse door. Now there are a clutch of these cases."
    State redevelopment agencies "have a very good lobbying organization," says San Diego attorney Louis E. Goebel. "But the mentality is changing."

    The classic San Diego case was in the late 1990s, when the Frost family wanted to develop a hotel in the ballpark district. The Frosts had a developer lined up. The hotel could be built without the city having to pay condemnation costs. Nonetheless, Centre City &amnp; city council ganged up to award the land by condemnation to Padres baseball team majority owner John Moores .
    "We argued abuse of eminent domain before the city council," says Frosts' atty Douglas Tribble. The case went to superior court, where a judge upheld the right of the city to grab the land. While this was going on, the Padres & the city were promising that tax revenue flowing from hotels & retailers in the ballpark district would pay for the ballpark.
    But mainly condos have been built; few hotel rooms have come through. Tax revenue generated by housing is eaten up by infrastructure costs. The ballpark is still a major drain.

    One reason citizens will vote on a hotel-tax increase this fall is that the Padres didn't live up to promises to construct revenue-generating hotels and other commercial structures, says former councilmember Bruce Henderson.
    You can see how it works. The govt seizes private land of a cloutless person and gives it at a lowball price to a politically potent nabob promising that tax revenues will pay for the big project. Those tax revenues don't come through. Hurting for revenue, the govt then turns around and seizes some other powerless person's property, handing it at a low price to another politically potent person, whose project will theoretically replace the revenue lost when the first promises were broken. The daisy chain of deceit is one reason corporate welfare has burgeoned out of control. At last, there is hope the courts will do something.

    Cash-strapped S.D.'s big asset: real estate
    5.16.05   Logan Jenkins SD UT

    The city of San Diego suffers from cognitive dissonance over its financial condition. Consider these two conflicting appraisals, both of which are valid:
      •   San Diego is drowning in red ink. It's more than $1 billion in the hole, the result of a decade-long conspiracy to gold-plate the retirement benefits of public employees.
      •   Declaring bankruptcy appears to be one way to turn back the clock. Bottom line, the city is doomed to eternal poverty unless the pension benefits are brought in line with the city's ability to pay.
      Default or die.

    Rubbish; the city is a municipal Midas. All this poor-mouthing completely overlooks the gold in the ground. San Diego owns about 16,000 acres, much of it prime property. Taken as a whole, this unusually large municipal portfolio is worth billions, according to the city's real estate manager Will Griffith.
    San Diego has the wherewithal to honor its current pension obligations. Sure, there's a cash-flow problem, when has there not been?, but the city's land (not to mention increasing taxes and fees) should rule out the drastic measure of Chapter 9.
    If you ain't broke, how can you declare bankruptcy? Discussions of the pension meltdown rarely include real estate, an asset most landowners consider their most precious.

    To be sure, every city-owned property, from SeaWorld to the Fairbanks Ranch Country Club, from Qualcomm Stadium to Belmont Park, poses its own cranky challenge, including surreal leases. Nevertheless, they're real assets in a fiscal crisis. Consider, for example, 2 North County properties: The San Pasqual Valley and the rustic village on the shore of Lake Hodges that used to be called Campo Del Dios, or Land of God.

    Annexed by San Diego in the early '60s, the San Pasqual Valley was valuable for its underground water. For the past 40 years, it's been leased as an agricultural preserve. Councilman Brian Maienschein recently unveiled a vision plan to protect this jewel from commercial development. But Mission Valley was once zoned agricultural, too. Land where my great-great uncle ran a dairy is now overshadowed by Qualcomm and IKEA. How much would 11,000 acres next to the Wild Animal Park be worth to a consortium of developers?

    A few miles west in the early '50s, San Diego was planning to double the height of the Lake Hodges dam, creating a "Super Hodges" that would have turned half of Del Dios into a rustic Atlantis. Anticipating the lake's rise, the city bought up 750 vacant lots, more than half of the town of Del Dios, to avoid costly condemnation. After the Sutherland Dam was built in 1953 and cheap Colorado River water became available, Super Hodges was abandoned.
    For the past half-century, Del Dios has been a no-growther's dream: A moratorium on new septic tanks has limited the number of privately owned houses to 160. 8 years ago, San Diego decided to sell vacant lots to homeowners who could use the extra acreage for septic leach lines: 202 lots were sold to 86 buyers for an average price of a little more than $11,000 per lot.
    But if it really needed the money, the city could bundle up its 548 remaining lots and sell them to a developer who could bring in a sewer line. San Diego pocketed $2.25 million in the lot auction, but that's chump change compared with what sewer-served lots would bring in the open market. San Diego could reap a windfall, upward of $100 million.

    Of course, the problem with real estate is that it's expensive and time-consuming to sell, and subject to political pressure. Imagine the outcry if the San Pasqual Valley were sacrificed to fund the city pension. That's why Mayor Dick Murphy's Pension Reform Committee looked at the city's holdings last year but rejected sales, instead focusing on transferring into the pension fund mortgages secured by the city's land, said committee chair April Boling.
    Besides the practical, there's the moral stumbling block. Pat Shea, a lawyer close to City Attorney Mike Aguirre and very close (married) to pension whistle-blower Diann Shipione, believes it would be calamitous to liquidate public land. In selling land, "we would be creating the WORST possible precedent," Shea e-mailed. Still, the city may have to swallow the swollen pension.
    In that case, how can San Diego not blend what any honest person would do, which is tighten the budget, look for new money (i.e., taxes) and sell off some of the gold in the ground? Between these opposite poles, fighting the pension deal to the death or paying the bill and moving on, the future of San Diego is suspended.



    Lawmakers rethink land-seizure laws   High court ruling leads to groundswell in state, proposed moratorium   8.17.05   Michael Gardner SD UT

    Sacramento   Govt's historic power to take land has been exercised to clear out slumlords and revitalize decaying downtowns, as well as manipulated to uproot homeowners and mom and pop stores to make way for mega-malls and high-rises. Hit with scattered horror stories but convinced from her experiences on the San Diego City Council that eminent domain can be a valuable tool for progress, state Sen. Christine Kehoe says it's time to rethink how local govts use, and sometimes abuse, their broad powers of condemnation.

    The San Diego Democrat has introduced legislation that includes an immediate 2 year moratorium on seizing owner-occupied housing under the banner of eminent domain. In doing so, Kehoe aligns with a growing number of lawmakers, both liberal and conservative, who are demanding a fresh look at eminent domain after a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision that upheld a Connecticut city's right to evict middle-class homeowners to pave the way for a waterfront hotel and convention center to support a $300 million research facility for Pfizer.

    Led by Kehoe, the Senate Local Govt Committee will open a review today of redevelopment law and the impact of the court's June 23 ruling in Kelo v. City of New London.
    "Kelo raised a lot of alarm among homeowners. I even heard from my friends telling me 'Jeepers, what gives? Can they take my house?' " Kehoe said.
    The answer is an emphatic "no," according to officials representing redevelopment agencies, which are generally extensions of city councils or counties and are armed with eminent domain power. They said the Supreme Court upheld Connecticut's ability to take property strictly for economic gain. California's law is far more rigorous, requiring a declaration that the property is blighted, among other conditions, officials said
    "In California, you must go through very elaborate findings to justify the imposition of a redevelopment plan and the potential use of eminent domain," said Dave Allsbrook, an official at the Centre City Development Corp., which oversees downtown redevelopment in San Diego.

    John Shirey, who represents redevelopment agencies statewide, said the decision simply affirmed the status quo.
    "There's a hue and cry about how bad things are in California. Yet Kelo changed nothing," Shirey said. "This is not about policy. This is not about fact. This is about a political opportunity."
    Nevertheless, the Supreme Court's ruling in the Kelo case has put redevelopment agencies on the defensive nationally. In California, lawmakers are looking to ban the use of eminent domain for any nonpublic purpose, such as hotels and condominiums. Others have introduced measures to protect farmland.

    For half a century, municipal govts in California have had the ability to condemn land as long as it is legally defined as blighted and the owner is justly compensated at fair market value. Generally, those govts have exercised their power to obtain land needed for public roads, schools and hospitals.
    Over time, however, eminent domain has emerged as a favorite tool to attract private development through cheap land and tax breaks. High-rises sprang up in run-down neighborhoods. Hotels opened as crack houses closed. Tourists took to the streets where prostitutes once walked. So say redevelopment agency officials.

    For example, neighbors pleaded with the city of San Diego for help cleaning up 2 sites in the East Village neighborhood. Petco Park also helped give that area a makeover. A park has replaced a seedy motel in Little Italy. Without the power of eminent domain, Allsbrook said, the rebirth of urban centers such as downtown San Diego never would have occurred. Shirley argued that eminent domain helps cities provide affordable housing and contain sprawl by encouraging in-fill development.
    To critics, however, revenue-hungry govts have seized perfectly acceptable shops and homes in favor of auto malls and hotels that can generate more sales and bed taxes. In San Diego, Ahmad Mesdaq failed in his highly publicized bid to thwart city efforts to shutter his remodeled Gran Havana Coffee and Cigar Lounge in the historic Gaslamp Quarter and replace it with a hotel.
    "All I wanted to do was live the American dream. Is that too much to ask?" said Mesdaq, who is held up by critics of eminent domain as an example of government power run amok. "What happened to me could happen to anybody and everybody," he warned.

    His is not an isolated case. California City in Kern County is in court defending its condemnation of 15,000 acres to develop a Hyundai test track. Oakland wants to take over two independent auto repair and supply businesses so that a Sears auto shop can open on the site a block away from its parent retail center. The Cottonwood Christian Center in Cypress was forced into a land swap because the city wanted a Costco instead of a church on the original building site.
    Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby said the state must tighten definitions of blight, which he said is too elastic to protect property owners.
    "Blight is what they say it is. It's a joke," said Norby, who heads an organization of municipal officials pressing for reforms.

    The Supreme Court's Kelo decision, critics contend, will only encourage more abuse.
    "The decision blows the doors wide open for any land, in particular ag land, to be condemned by local govt for a strip mall," said Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth, a La Mesa Republican carrying legislation to protect farms.
    Agencies cannot condemn agricultural land if more than 20 percent of it is still productive. But Hollingsworth said cities skirt the law, referring to a previous bid by the city of San Jacinto to take more than 2,300 acres. Farmland, he said, is "the most vulnerable because it doesn't generate sales tax."
    Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Northridge, is carrying a sweeping constitutional amendment to bar govt agencies from taking private property unless it is for a public purpose, such as a road or school.
    "This has to do with taking from one citizen, usually someone who is politically weak, and giving it to someone else, who is politically well-connected," he said.

    Assemblywoman Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Niguel, said: "If public purposes can be defined as any project that increases the local govt's tax revenue, who is to say that people's homes cannot be subjected to eminent domain, even if the only purpose is to build an auto mall or a shopping center?"
    Kehoe opposes blanket bans, noting that eminent domain is a long, public process.
    "It's a tortuous test," the former San Diego councilwoman said. She proudly points to a reborn City Heights. "Instead of burned out buildings, we have a thriving community," she said. "It's a neighborhood transformed."

    Homeowners are outraged by threat of demolition
    8.24.05   Roger M. Showley SD UT

    Debate over govt's right to take private property prompted by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling hovers at the very doorstep of Jody Carey and Dennis Wood, who live in a 1000 sq ft house at the edge of a canyon in City Heights. No sooner did they buy the property for $260,000 last year and spend $200,000 rebuilding it, complete with a built-in beer keg tap in the kitchen, two limestone-trimmed spa bathtubs and maple floors throughout, than they received a notice from a little-known agency that their home and 187 others nearby might be demolished.
    "It doesn't sound right," Carey said. "We bought and fixed it up and they're talking about taking it away. It's not the American way."
    Carey's ire was raised even more last week when he read that Sacramento legislators, including Sen. Christine Kehoe, D-San Diego, are trying to rein in eminent domain in the wake of the Supreme Court's June 23 decision allowing govts to take private property for private redevelopment. In California, such condemnation is permitted if blight is declared. Kehoe introduced Senate Bill 53, aimed at protecting homeowner rights, but Carey said her bill would not help him. He blamed Kehoe for a bill she spearheaded in 2002 that expanded eminent domain powers to an unelected agency planning a redevelopment project in City Heights. If it moves forward, Carey and others could face the loss of their homes without recourse to the San Diego City Council or other elected officials.
    "I'm a lifelong Democrat," he said. "I'm gay; she's one of 5 gay members of the Legislature. "I love her. Up until this day, I supported everything she's done."
    Now, Carey is supporting a state constitutional amendment, SCA 15, authored by a Republican, Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Northridge, to bar govt agencies from taking private property unless it is for a public purpose. Supporters are hoping to place it on the June ballot.

    Kehoe said her 2002 bill was intended to help revitalize a section of City Heights, not to reduce the property rights of affected homeowners.
    "Things have been delayed to a substantial amount," she said. "It proves my point that the uncertainty of redevelopment plans needs to be kind of tightened up."
    At the center of the growing controversy is the San Diego Model School Development Agency, created to guide revitalization around a new school planned in City Heights. The school is Florence Griffith-Joyner Elementary, a $47.5 million project for 700 students due for completion in fall 2006. Construction began last month at the site west of Fairmount Avenue at Myrtle Avenue.

    What is unnerving City Heights residents are plans to build replacement housing for the 120 homes that were demolished to make way for the school. The agency proposes to take 188 more homes on 30 acres and then build up to 509 apartments, condominiums and townhomes. Not only do the affected residents complain that they have not been kept informed, but they also argue that residents in the affected area are upgrading their homes.
    Archison Lazarus, 32, who immigrated from South Africa 10 years ago with $20 in his pocket and a Red Cross blanket on his back, said he has spent upward of $20,000 on the home he bought for $334,000 in 2003 without realizing he might face condemnation.
    "We do have to preserve our houses; that's the main goal," Lazarus said.

    Nearby are 3 single-family homes built by Habitat for Humanity last year that also face demolition. Cheryl Keenan, executive director of the faith-based housing agency, said she would help the Habitat buyers relocate but would not have halted the project even if she had known about the redevelopment plans.
    "I'd love to see redevelopment," Keenan said. "That's how cities grow and get better."
    Echoing her thoughts was former San Diego City Manager Jack McGrory, one of the 3 school district appointees to the model-school board. McGrory cautioned against doing away with the power of eminent domain.
    "If all the public agencies say they're not going to do condemnation, that's virtually the end of urban redevelopment," McGrory said. "The comeback of American cities was largely the result of redevelopment efforts of the last 20 to 30 years that allowed blighted properties to be condemned and replaced with significantly enhanced properties that really revitalized the urban core."

    While they await further action, the homeowners' ability to sell their homes has been hurt by the threat of demolition. Linda Chase, the real estate agent who helped Carey, Wood and Lazarus buy their homes, said she is now steering clients away from the area.
    "I wouldn't sell to anyone if I know eminent domain is in the path," Chase said. "I'd recommend going somewhere else."
    The warning may last a long time. The latest schedule calls for new housing to open no earlier than 2009 and the cost, from $135 million to $250 million, is hampered by limited funding and rising real estate values. Environmental analysis is taking longer than anticipated.
    The consulting project manager, Greg Shannon, recently announced his resignation; a search for a master developer was suspended; and former San Diego Councilman William Jones, who submitted one of three development proposals as head of City Link Investments, was brought on to rethink the feasibility of the project.

    Jay Powell, executive director of the nonprofit City Heights Community Development Corp., has been following the rebuilding proposal closely and had hoped his agency would get the go-ahead to develop the block immediately east of the school site.
    "Especially in the last 6 or 7 months, the process has just come down to a crawl," Powell said.
    Jones has met with residents over the past few weeks and tentatively decided to recommend excluding several properties from the plan, including those of Lazarus and Carey and Wood. A presentation on the proposed revisions is expected next month.
    Carey said he is not backing down from fighting the proposed demolition just because his house no longer may be affected.
    "What kind of person would I be if it doesn't affect me and I shut up now?" he said. "I wouldn't be a good person or neighbor if I allowed my neighbors, who don't speak English and don't understand their rights, to be taken advantage of."

    Sal Salas, chairman of the model-school agency board and the San Diego Housing Commission, said the plan may have to be scaled back. As for the question of eminent domain, Salas acknowledged that his unelected board has the power to condemn private property and owners have no right of appeal to the City Council or school board.

    "Are we cavalier about that? Absolutely not," he said. "I'm not that way. … You have the legal right (to condemn) and then there's the reality."
    Deputy Mayor Toni Atkins, who represents the area, said she has growing concerns about the project and may reassess her support after an upcoming briefing. Atkins also may ask the City Council or one of its committees to take a fresh look.
    "Now that we have all these discussions about eminent domain and the Supreme Court ruling, we can't create new situations (of unfair condemnation)," she said. "That wasn't the original intent of why this was set up."

      international
    Former bosses join Japan's homeless army
    12.26.01   Colin Joyce
    News Telegraph

    Tokyo   Tokyo's Ueno Park was once famed for its springtime cherry blossom. Nowadays, it is more familiar as the home of a swelling tent city housing part of Japan's growing army of homeless. Homelessness Japanese-style is different from the Western experience. Despite the profusion of tents, the park area occupied by them is impeccably tidy. Fallen leaves are swept into little piles and the hoards of aluminium cans that the homeless collect to sell for recycling are covered & neatly stacked. The residents, mostly men in their forties & fifties, build their dwellings with care from tarpaulin & cardboard. The broken handles of discarded umbrellas are used as tent pegs, and as with Japanese homes, people take off their shoes before entering.
    They do not beg for money. The practice is unknown and would be unlikely to reap any rewards from the conservative Japanese. Besides, they have their pride. Instead, they earn small sums reselling discarded comics to office workers near train stations, or wearing sandwich boards advertising loan sharks & gambling parlors. And while many homeless drink beer or sake, alcoholism or drug abuse are comparatively unusual. There are a few who appear mentally disturbed, but most have simply fallen victim to a recession in a society ill-prepared for long-term unemployment.

    A small number of unemployed laborers have lived in the fringes of Ueno Park for years, but a study recently revealed that they are being joined by an increasing number of former salarymen. According to some estimates around 10% of Japanese homeless were once company managers, the men who provided the engine room of Japan's post-war boom. Although many are former employees of small manufacturing firms rather than elite corporations, their new status underlines the gravity of the country's decade-long recession . As unemployment has risen to record levels, so has homelessness, and notoriously cautious govt estimates put the numbers at around 24,000, a rise of almost 20% in 2 years.
    For many years after the bursting of Japan's economic bubble in 1990, the downturn was called a "golden recession" because the impact was not immediately visible. The problem has been hidden to some extent because Japanese homeless people overwhelmingly keep themselves to themselves, with tent cities growing up mostly in unobtrusive spots under bridges & in park corners. During 4 decades of almost continuous economic growth, Japan had near to zero unemployment. When people did lose their jobs it was usually temporary. But unemployment is now at a post-war high of 5.4%, an official figure that does not include those who have given up the search for work.

    Now Japan has at last begun to deal with the issue of homelessness. Local authorities have built temporary shelters and the govt of PM Junichiro Koizumi has put money into a better safety net for the unemployed. Tokyo Metropolitan govt this year said homelessness was a problem of society, not an individual failure. Some Japanese still have a revulsion for the homeless and in recent years there has been a series of unprovoked attacks on them. However, Makoto Yuasa, an activist for the homeless, says such attitudes are becoming rarer and that the rise in homelessness has paradoxically given him hope. "Govt has begun to deal with the problem and media often debate the issue," he said. "Homelessness has become so common that it can't be ignored."


      Seeking shelter in Japan ¹
      Homeless problem grows as nation battles recession
      10.17.01   Clay Chandler & Akiko Kashiwagi Wash.Post Foreign Service pE1
    OSAKA   2 nights each week, 63-year-old Yoshisuke Nagamine works his way around the groves & gardens at the base of Osaka Castle to check up on his homeless neighbors. Emerging from his compound of blue plastic sheets & cardboard boxes, the burly former air-conditioner repairman wends through a village of shanties that has grown among the pine & plum trees as the Japanese unemployment rate has grown in recent years. Nagamine points out the more recent arrivals. There's the fellow who came after his seafood restaurant failed; the couple in their sixties whose trucking company collapsed; the 2 brothers who juggle odd jobs; the former office worker with the bad cough who ran out of friends who'd put him up.
    When Nagamine began his nighttime rounds five years ago, the park had no more than a few dozen full-time residents and he could look in on everyone in about 45 minutes. But now that the community includes more than 700 shanties, his reconnaissance takes at least three hours. "You never know," says the deputy park director, Tsutomu Morisawa, who has spoken with hundreds of those living on the grounds. "One day you're off to work in a white shirt & tie. The next day you find yourself out here sleeping under a plastic sheet." Tent settlements like the one encircling Osaka Castle are among the most jarring manifestations of this nation's struggle to break the grip of a decade-long economic slump. Even before 9.11.01, residents of the world's second-largest economy were girding for a period of painful retrenchment as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made good on his vow to rein in govt spending & businesses pushed ahead with long-deferred restructuring plans. Corporate profits were plunging. The nation's famed trade surplus had receded for 14 straight months. Unemployment topped 5% a postwar record.

    Now, many analysts warn of a global slowdown that could tip Japan -- already the weakest of the world's industrial economies, into a deeper & more protracted recession, which in turn could exacerbate the global downturn. In early September, private experts surveyed by Consensus Economics Inc., a London-based forecasting firm, said they expected the Japanese economy to contract slightly this year, then manage a modest recovery in 2002. But the Consensus group now predicts that, on average, Japan's economy will shrink by at least half a%age point this year and another half-point the following year. Many analysts fear there will be no genuine turnaround until late 2003. "If support from the U.S. economy declines, Japan will probably experience another downward leg of falling production, income, investment & consumer spending," Jeffery Young, an economist at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney, warned in a recent memo to clients.
    The terrorist attacks have not only dampened consumer sentiment in Japan's most important export market, but may also further depress demand by U.S. businesses for the information-technology products that are a mainstay of this economy. Those shocks are raising the anxiety level here because they will compound other deep-rooted economic problems. Japanese consumers continue to keep a tight grip on their wallets. The nation's exporters are struggling to fend off low-cost producers in China. The govt is still groping for solutions to clear an estimated $1.5 trillion in bad debts from the balance sheets of the nation's banks. In combination, these problems have left workers more vulnerable than ever before.


    As in past downturns, the current recession is grinding hardest on the Japanese who toil at the margins of society -- day laborers, women, the elderly & the unskilled. But the slump is beginning to squeeze workers at the core of the traditional labor force. Most of those living outside Osaka Castle are former construction workers. But local aid groups estimate that 1 in 10 is a former office worker. A rising wave of bankruptcies nationwide has thrust the employees of hundreds of thousands of small & medium-size enterprises onto a bleak job market, often with meager benefits. New graduates, even those with degrees from first- & second-tier universities, face unprecedented challenges in finding work. And as large firms shrink payrolls & cut costs, even once-secure salaried office workers at blue-chip Japanese companies dread receiving a "tap on the shoulder."
    Keisuke Uehira, director of Kyoto paper-products company Daiichi Shiko, was among the first to discover the new vulnerability of Japanese workers. In Sapporo for business 9.11.01, he stared in disbelief at live television coverage of the collapsing World Trade Ctr towers. 2 days later, reverberations from the tragedy rocked Daiichi as bank executives meeting in Tokyo concluded that, given the gloomier growth outlook, there was no hope of rehabilitating MyCal Corp., a huge but troubled Kyoto retailer that was the paper company's biggest customer. MyCal's largest creditor refused to roll over the retailer's loans, forcing it into bankruptcy.

    Days later, Daiichi, with nearly 400 employees & $56 million in liabilities, followed suit. About two-thirds of those workers will lose their jobs. For middle-aged workers at big companies, the ax has yet to fall. But they are fearful. Last month, in rapid succession, a parade of giant Japanese manufacturers, including Fujitsu Ltd., Toshiba Corp., Matsushita Electric Industrial Corp. & Hitachi Ltd., announced sweeping staff cuts, with many promising to eliminate 10% or even 20% of their global workforces. Most companies said they will slash overseas jobs first, even though those workers are less costly. The few companies that plan to shed Japanese employees said they would make the reductions gradually through attrition & early retirement programs.
    But shareholders -- especially foreigners, who hold an increasing stake in Japan's leading industrial companies, are howling for deeper cuts. Ikuo Matsuhashi, an industry analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., predicted that within the next few months, Japan's electronics giants will announce far more aggressive retrenchments, this time targeting Japanese workers. With losses mounting, "they have no choice," he said. "They're going have to make reductions beyond the scale of what we've seen." 2 months ago, Matsushita's president, Kunio Nakamura, fueled speculation that the Osaka manufacturer was preparing plans to force workers in their fifties & sixties into retirement when he declared that Matsushita didn't need "hard-headed" older employees who couldn't be trained to use computers.

    Matsushita officials scrambled to reassure Japanese employees that the company had no plans to push out senior workers. But Nakamura's remarks gained wide media attention here because they contrasted so starkly with the philosophy of Matsushita's founder, Konosuke Matsushita, who is revered as a pioneer of Japan's vaunted "lifetime employment" system. At age 49, Yoshio Anan is learning the hard way that there may be little difference between taking early retirement & getting laid off. Until this past February, Anan worked on the assembly line at a Nissan Motor Co. affiliate in Kyoto. When Nissan decided two years ago to close the facility as part of global restructuring, the plant's 1,500 employees were obliged to choose between early retirement or jobs at a Nissan factory in Kanagawa, nearly 300 miles away. Anan, a 31-year Nissan veteran, was one of about 600 workers who chose to leave the company and search for work close to home. But after eight months of pounding the pavement, his unemployment benefits are running out and his career options are dwindling.
    "If I'm not too picky, I suppose I could probably get a job as a security guard," he said. "But the pay would be barely half what I was making. I knew things would be tough … but I never imagined the economy would be this bad." Meanwhile, to avoid laying off current employees, companies have drastically scaled back their hiring of new recruits. The jobless rate for Japanese men in their early twenties has climbed above 10% Yoshihide Sorimachi, forensic pathologist for the city of Osaka, argued that the rising unemployment rate has taken a heavier psychological toll in Japan than in other countries because, in this society, job status is the preeminent measure of self-worth. In 1998, when the number of suicides in Osaka jumped to 900, from 500 the previous year, Sorimachi noticed that a large proportion of the suicides he examined at the city morgue were laid-off middle-aged men. Sorimachi noted that, in contrast to many other industrial societies, Japan's suicide rate rises & falls almost in lock step with unemployment statistics. "Many Japanese workers feel that if they lose their jobs, they have lost their reason to live," he said.

    Here in Kansai, the west-central region encompassing Osaka, the job picture is particularly grim. The economy's most troubled sectors, electronics, light manufacturing, textiles, retailing & construction, account for a disproportionate share of local commerce. In many ways, work conditions in Osaka offer a preview of what awaits the rest of the nation if Japan's leaders fail to reverse the economy's slide. The unemployment rate here is roughly 1.5%age points above the national average. City officials estimate the number of people sleeping in Osaka's streets, parks or other public spaces at more than 10,000, almost twice the homeless population of Tokyo, despite Osaka's smaller size.
    At Osaka Castle, many of the tent dwellers held jobs until just a few years ago and cling to habits of cleanliness & order. Most pay regular visits to the nearby sento, or public bath. Many keep bank accounts; a few own cell phones. The majority earn enough to survive by scouring the city streets for aluminum cans, which can be redeemed at recycling centers for a little over 2 cents each. Old-timers say they used to be able to make as much as $30 a day collecting cans. But now there's a lot more competition, and a successful 5-hour foray typically yields about $16. The tent dwellers battle frost in winter, mosquitoes in summer and loneliness all year round. Most of all, there is the nagging stigma of failure. "My grandchildren live just across town, but they don't come see me anymore," says an unemployed roofer who declined to give his name.

    The Osaka govt has begun building crude shelters around the city so that the rising tide of displaced workers will have a place to go. Last year, the Labor Ministry launched a number of "self-reliance centers" giving some homeless people free room & board for 6 months, providing them breathing space to search for work. Together these two programs have helped lower the number of tents outside Osaka Castle by about 40% from the summer's peak of nearly 1,200. But Nagamine fears that if the economy remains sour, the encampment will swell again. Nagamine, who has lived here since giving up his job in 1993, first came to the park to look after an old friend who lost his job after injuring his leg in a traffic accident. The friend took to drinking and died 2 years later.
    But Nagamine found plenty of others who needed his help. He emerged as the park's unofficial mayor several years ago after helping to resolve a payment dispute between homeless day laborers & some scrap dealers. Charitable groups trust him to run the biweekly soup kitchen. Police rely on him to keep the peace. A recent Saturday morning found him seeking to boost the morale of park inhabitants by organizing a baseball team. "I'm not necessarily here because I like it, but what else can I do?" he asks. "There are all these newcomers here. They don't have any experience with being homeless. Somebody has to look out for them."

    CRAWFORD TX   Pres.GWBush, calling homeownership "the heart of the American dream," promoted an administration plan to help 40,000 low-income families scrape together the down payment to buy a house. In his weekly radio address broadcast on Saturday, the president said he wants to start rectifying the disparities in homeownership between white & minority Americans. Nearly three-quarters of white Americans own their own homes, while less than half of all black & Hispanic Americans are homeowners. "We must begin to close this homeownership gap by dismantling the barriers that prevent minorities from owning a piece of the American dream," said Bush, who was spending the Father's Day weekend with first lady Laura Bush on their Texas ranch.

    Before returning to Washington on Monday, Bush is to stop in Atlanta to promote his broad housing agenda, which he summarized as "empowering people to help themselves, and to help one another" at the city's southside Pryor Road area. There, housing development is replacing dilapidated & crime-ridden strip malls. Bush has proposed giving developers nearly $2.4 billion in tax credits over 5 years for building affordable single-family homes in low-income areas. The White House estimates that the tax incentive could translate into the construction of 200,000 affordable homes in that 5-year period.

    The president proposed a $200-million expansion to the American Dream Down-Payment Fund, first outlined in January and awaiting action by Congress, which would give about 40,000 families each year for five years a grant to help pay a down payment or closing costs. Most of the grants would be less than $5,000 for each family and money would be distributed by state & local housing programs. The program currently has a budget of $50 million and is to begin offering grants in July.

    "The single greatest hurdle to first-time homeownership is a high down payment requirement that can put a home out of reach," Bush said Saturday. He also called for better consumer education to help would-be buyers navigate the complexities of getting an affordable mortgage. "We're stepping up our efforts to better educate first-time home buyers," Bush said. "Education is the best protection for families against abusive and unscrupulous lenders. Financial education and housing counseling can help protect home buyers against abuses, greatly improve the loan terms they are offered, and help families get through tough times with their homes intact."
      Officials target shanties on Hudson River
      5.17.03   Steve Strunsky AP
    Union City NJ   Apart from the million-dollar view of Manhattan's glittering skyline, the plywood shanty that Cruz Melendez fashioned on a wooded slope has little in common with most of the posh housing that's been built on the Hudson River in recent years. But the 5x15 ft "casita," as he calls it, is home. Most important, it's rent- free, since the 63-year-old said his income from collecting recyclables buys food.
    "I'm happy because I believe in God," said Melendez, a Roman Catholic, who has a raised bed, battery powered radio, patchwork carpeting, roll of toilet paper, tiny fireplace and a poster of Abraham Lincoln tacked the low ceiling. The problem: city officials want Melendez and everyone else in the makeshift neighborhood to get out. The area has drawn the attention of authorities & concerned residents for recent violence & its unsightly appearance.

    Like a miniature version of the sprawling favelas populated by poor rural migrants on the outskirts of Latin American cities, the shanties, extremely rare in these parts, occupy a sloping strip of wooded no-man's land in Hudson County NJ's most densely populated region. The shanties are within Union City, but are closer to the base of the Palisades overlooking Hoboken, with its luxury apartments & townhouses closer to the Hudson River opposite Manhattan that sell for more than $1 million.
    Union City Police officers & Mayor Brian Stack descended on the area earlier this month, urging residents to seek shelter elsewhere. Stack said he offered to pay a month's rent on new housing and provide other assistance - an offer some have taken. He said no one would be evicted from their homes among the dozen people who remain in 3 clusters of shanties overlooking northern Hoboken. "I call them homes because that's what they are," said Stack, who arranged city jobs for 3 residents of the cliffs. "They're low-paying jobs, they're street sweeping jobs, but it gives them a foot in the door, esp. if they're willing to work hard."

    Melendez is a native of Puerto Rico who said he will seek social security when he's eligible in 2 years but now receives no public assistance. He said Stack appeared genuinely concerned when the 2 spoke during the mayor's visit. Melendez said he wouldn't mind moving, but added, "We don't have any place to go." Melendez is not exaggerating, said Palisades Emergency Residence Corp. co-dir. Tom Harrigan, soup kitchen & 40-bed homeless shelter that is filled most nights.
    Harrigan said the average cost of a furnished room in the area is $125 a week, barely affordable for people earning minimum wage. Many of the 150 people a night who eat free dinners at the shelter do have jobs, he said, but can't afford food after paying rent. Harrigan commended the mayor for his compassion, and said the shelter houses the three former squatters for whom the mayor got jobs. But with little affordable housing, he asked, "Where do you send these people?"

    Melendez' son, Diego Ramirez, 39, shares a shanty with one other man just up a dirt path from his father's little shack. The men live surrounded by what seemed to be years worth of broken beer bottles & other trash, 30 or 40 ft above railroad tracks being installed at the base of the Palisades. Ramirez said he has been living in various spots on the Palisades for 10 years, since his girlfriend threw him out of the apartment they shared, and started drinking heavily thereafter.
    Life on the cliffs is not all bad, he said."We're in nature, with the little animals," he said in Spanish. "We're peaceful." Indeed, under a canopy of green, away from any roads or sidewalks, the shanty town seems tranquil. But in recent months, that tranquility was shaken by the separate stabbing deaths of two of its residents.
    "I don't know if I would characterize any place as dangerous," said Hudson County prosecutor first asst Guy Gregory. "However, when you have people living together in tight quarters without security, there is an invitation to crime & violence."


      Through the roof   Why the state's red-hot real estate mkt could end up hurting the economy, harming environment, and landing suburbs in court.   3.9.03   Anthony Flint Boston Globe
    It seems so naive now, almost quaint, the way they all set out to become homeowners, bright-eyed and determined and ready with their tidy list of requirements: a price of $200,000 to $300,000, in or close to Boston, a place with some space, a community with good schools. That was before the double takes at the newspaper listings on Sundays, before the pitying chuckles of the real estate agents, before the packed open houses and the bidding wars and the one-hour car trips to towns they'd never even heard of. That was before the Massachusetts real estate market chewed them up and spit them out.
    For Teresa Murray, the first sign of trouble came with the two-family in Roslindale that got 27 bids and a winning offer $80,000 above the $329,000 asking price. Then there was the fixer-upper listed at $239,000 in Mattapan, another dreary ranch in Randolph, and finally the day she found herself in Attleboro, staring blankly at newly built homes in anonymous subdivisions going for $350,000 and up. 2 years after starting the search, Murray, 40, is still paying rent in Jamaica Plain, just more of it, having been ousted from her one-bedroom apt that was converted to a condominium.

    Ted LaCrone tells a similar tale. Hunting for condominiums in the price range of $200,000 after his daughter was born 2 years ago, he found properties he describes as "tiny, crummy, and depressing", and not very many of them.
    He wanted to stay in Cambridge, where he knew his Cambridgeport neighbors and the staff at his daughter's day-care center, but wound up looking in southern New Hampshire & northern Rhode Island. Unwilling to spend 3 hours a day commuting, he quit his job with the city of Cambridge, and his wife quit her job as a social worker, and they moved last year to Gardiner, Maine, 45 minutes outside of Augusta.

    Then there's Anne Goddard & husband Shawn Sullivan, who returned to Massachusetts 3 years ago after renting in San Francisco. They expected some sticker shock, but their hopes of finding a single-family home within Interstate 495 for less than $300,000 were quickly dashed. They looked in Hudson then in Framingham, where their price requirement led them to a rickety house "that looked like it had been taken apart and put back together, and it was still a rabbit warren."
    Sullivan's parents saved the day by selling the young couple their own house in Haverhill. "We weren't prepared for this," Goddard says, juggling the needs of her infant daughter and 3-year-old son in the warm confines of their 1910 house. "We had a romantic notion that we were coming home, so it would be easier somehow, but in terms of housing, it was the same deal. Just with more snow."

    Goddard & Sullivan, the LaCrones, and Murray all might have had better luck in San Francisco, which has historically registered the highest home prices in the nation but in recent months has seen some moderation, starting with rentals, generally attributed to the dot-com bust. It might have been a fair assumption that the same thing would happen in Massachusetts, where unemployment is up and the fortunes of once high-flying technology companies have flagged. But nothing of the kind has transpired.
    The market has softened for $1 million-plus luxury properties and some rentals, but sellers are still in charge for homes priced under $600,000. For the people lucky enough to be homeowners, it's a market that is richly rewarding. For some, it's been a ticket to luxurious retirement or a trade-up to a suburb they've always dreamed of calling home. For the real estate industry, needless to say, the market is an joyful phenomenon.

    People searching for a home they can afford are looking farther & farther from Boston; "drive till you qualify" is the realtors' phrase, leading developers to build single-family subdivisions on farmland & woods beyond I-495. Land is used up, and more cars are added to already congested roadways.

    The red-hot market also could ultimately hurt the state's economic competitiveness, as skilled workers give up on the house hunt, leave the state, or, just as commonly, refuse to relocate here because of the costs. Entry-level jobs could be hit even harder. In the worst-case scenario, social stratification intensifies, the economy is drained of its diversity, and suburban towns turn inward as exclusive enclaves, so much so that a family sues, alleging that it is being deprived of constitutional guarantees for at least a shot at the American dream.

    That's what happened in NJ, where judges tell wealthy communities they must build thousands of units of more- dense housing, and they don't really care if residents say the projects will worsen traffic or overburden schools. The worry, in short, is not so much a fear that the real estate bubble will burst in Massachusetts. It's what will happen if it doesn't.
    It's a pretty amazing market," says Wellesley College economist Karl E. "Chip" Case, someone not given to hyperbole. "I don't quite get it. The softness is not there, but the economy is where we were in 1989", that is, in bad shape. Nationally, the 9 year run-up in housing prices looked as if it might finally be pulling back late last year. Prices declined slightly in Seattle, Houston, and Cincinnati, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, and rents declined nationally about 1% in Q4 2002. But the year finished off strong: 5.6 million homes sold across the country in 2002, up 5% over 2001.

    War and higher interest rates could alter the trend this year, but Brad Inman, publisher of "Inman News," a real estate newsletter, speaks for most experts when he says that the bubble won't likely burst but rather gradually deflate. In the Massachusetts market, meanwhile, the dips have been fleeting and gains magnified. The median price of a home in Greater Boston hit $395,900 last year, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, roughly 2.5x the national median. In 2002, 46,769 single-family homes were sold in Massachusetts, a 5.1% increase over 2001, according to the association. The average selling price was $346,019, up 12% over 2001; the average condo price was $243,951, up 16% over 2001. Greater Boston had the most expensive average price for a single-family house: $498,180.
    "We still see a steady pace. I even had a showing on Super Bowl Sunday," says Carolyn Chodat of the Medway- based Classic Properties, who sees clients flooding into the relative bargain areas west of I-495 like Northbridge, Uxbridge, and tiny Millville, on the Rhode Island border. "I think it's going to be a good spring."

    Spending under a half-million dollars, of course, is what most people looking for a home have in mind. So for them, the puzzling question remains: Why? Why are prices so high, and why do they stay that way? What's so different about Massachusetts? To pick some early and only slightly arbitrary culprits, wind the clock back and blame the Atlantic Ocean, the Pilgrims, and Harvard.
    As the oldest continuously settled part of the Republic, Massachusetts has had lots of time to fill in the nooks & crannies of buildable land in every direction but east, because of the ocean. So the region is mature & confined geographically; for most of the past decade especially, economically robust and thus a popular place to be. Massachusetts is home to a greater diversity of ideas-based, information-based businesses than other parts of the country, helped in large part by the presence of the colleges, universities, and research laboratories that attract a skilled work force. "It's why we're not Detroit," says Harvard economist Edward Glaeser.

    But it's not all new people moving in and looking for a place to live. Massachusetts grew by just 332,672 people from 1990 to 2000, bringing the total population to 6.3 million, according to the US Census. That was an increase of just 5.5%. The new arrivals are joined by legions of people already here who have jumped into the home-buying market. In what analysts call "household sprawl," there are fewer people under each roof today: more singles, divorced people, or young people who leave the nest. Where there historically were at least 12 people in a triple-decker, there now may only be 4; a professional couple on the upper floors and 2 tenants on the first floor.
    The number of Massachusetts households expanded by 130,000 in the 1990s, according to Harvard's Joint Ctr for Housing Studies. Immigrants, as well, are boosting the number of would-be home buyers. Not so much the most recent arrivals, who double or triple up in apartments and work in entry-level jobs, but the foreign-born who have been here for 5 or 10 years and have saved up the down payment or are well-paid workers at technology or biotech companies and are looking for single-family homes in the suburbs, just like everybody else.

    Toss in the availability of 30-year fixed mortgages at an interest rate as low as 5.75%, lowest rates in 40 years, and the popularity of real estate as a sounder investment than the stock market, and the result is a mountain of demand. Supply, in normal circumstances, when a bunch of people clamor for a product, the market responds by making more of it. But in Massachusetts, the supply of housing hasn't increased much, despite the obvious business opportunity. A report last fall by The Boston Foundation, Northeastern University, and the Citizens Housing & Planning Association found that the number of new homes produced each year actually declined from an average of 8,460 in the late 1990s to 8,194 in 2000.
    That decline the driving force behind home prices soaring 50% in Greater Boston between 1998 & 2002, has been the subject of much analysis and soul-searching. The root of the problem, developers say, is that there isn't enough land to build on, not so much a physical scarcity as a scarcity of land that cities & towns are willing to allow development on. "We actually have lots of land," says Charles C. Euchner, head of the Rappaport Institute for Greater Boston at Harvard's Kennedy School of Govt. It's marbled throughout the areas already built up, incl empty lots and parcels near transit stations, he says. But local residents opposed to further development can veto proposals in classic not-in-my-backyard fashion, esp. housing proposals with lots of units, partly due to fear of overloading the school system, partly due to concern about home values.

    NIMBY is enabled by local zoning rules & land-use regulations, some of which actually prohibit multifamily residential developments, Euchner says. About 45 communities have passed slow-growth or no-growth measures on top of the existing rules, such as caps on building permits per year. What ends up being built are large-lot, single-family subdivisions: by definition, more expensive homes, and not very many of them.
    When any type of residential development does manage to get local approval, the process for actually getting a project built is costly & time-consuming. "The other night [at a planning board meeting], in Plainville, we had a wetlands biologist, a civil engineer, a lawyer, a landscape architect, and myself," says Sharon-based realtor & development consultant David Wluka. "That was probably $2,000 an hour, and all the questions didn't get answered, so another meeting was scheduled. It's not unusual for the cost of the permitting process to become as much as the cost of the land."

    High labor costs, cost of land, and low interest rates all form the foundation for inflated prices, but it is the squeezing off of supply and the constraints on developable land that intensify everything. So that duplex in the South End and that bungalow in Newton can sell for twice what they went for a few years ago, because of fundamentals like location and quality, but also because those properties are in a marketplace that has been shrunk to boutique proportions.
    To the retired firefighter who hits the jackpot and uses the $300,000 profit from selling his single-family home in South Boston to move to Braintree or Hingham or Florida, there's not much to complain about. But an untamed housing market can actually wreak havoc. The continual movement outward from Boston is perhaps the least efficient way to provide housing, says Metropolitan Area Planning Council exec. dir. Marc Draisen. Single-family subdivisions burn through the land quickly, and inevitably the boomtown of the moment fills up and closes the door on further development, pushing the subdivisions to the next town over. If that goes on past Worcester, he says, whole swaths of Eastern Massachusetts will choke on traffic & pollution, and there won't be much in the way of woods & farms.

    Yet, "outward" remains the guiding principle in the search for a home in Massachusetts, southeast to Plymouth, south to Attleboro, southwest to Franklin and Bellingham and Milford, west to Grafton, northwest from Sterling and Bolton, all the way to Westminster, and north to Tyngsborough, Methuen, and, reliably, southern New Hampshire. Wluka says he recently had a client who went through a typical outward progression: starting in Cohasset & Scituate, then on to Stoughton, Foxborough, North Franklin, and Attleboro, and winding up in Woonsocket & Cumberland in Rhode Island. The way things are now, driving to where the affordable homes are is a necessity. But it's a classic road map of sprawl.
    What's equally messy is what could happen to the state's economic profile. Families earning the median income in the Boston area, about $60,000, can afford the monthly payments for a $250,000 home if they can save enough for a down payment. "It gets hard with all the expenditures, car insurance, preschool, rent, to squirrel that money away," says house hunter Acia Adams Heath, a financial assistant at MIT. Taking on a lot of debt to buy a home is also daunting, she says: "I feel like we'd be eating peanut butter sandwiches for a year."

    But even those eager to spend often can't break into this market. After a year of looking, Heath & her husband, both 28, have been unable to find anything acceptable, even in the $300,000 range. They have found mostly unimpressive condos in Boston, where they prefer to raise their daughter, now 3. It's especially galling, Heath says, because she and her husband make proportionately more money than those in her parents' generation did when they were buying houses. Friends around the nation aren't having this problem. "Speaking to my family in Atlanta, they're like, `What do you mean you can't find a home? You guys are not low-income. What are you talking about?' But up here, we are."

    The problem is compounded when teachers, police officers, municipal workers, hospital staff, and retail employees can't afford to live where they want or near the community where they work and end up leaving the state, because long commutes are ruining their quality of life. If that keeps happening, there won't be enough people to fill the range and diversity of jobs, from entry-level on up, that make up a healthy economy. Lately that concern is extending to better-paid professionals. Massachusetts Technology Collaborative recently warned that, more & more, workers are unwilling to relocate here. Prospective employees know what they can sell their house for in Atlanta or the Midwest, and they discover they can't buy anything closely equivalent in Massachusetts with the proceeds. One Harvard official says there have been a number of doctors who are turning down assignments at Massachusetts General Hospital because area housing costs are too high.

    "We had friends in New York, Chicago, and Atlanta who moved home to Louisville, and they were getting nice, older homes in well-established neighborhoods with good schools," says Rebecca Matheny, who grew up in Kentucky and lives with her husband and their new baby in Somerville. In Louisville, she says, you can get a nice older home for the price of a ho-hum 2 bedroom condo in Somerville. The last straw was the newly constructed unit on the site of a former gas station in Somerville that went for nearly $300,000, what a friend recently paid for a place in Manhattan. "When condos in Somerville are costing the same as the Upper West Side, it just seems irrational. Something seems askew."

    Matheny, who works for the Cambridge Housing Authority, worries about paying top dollar and then having the condo market crash, and she refuses to make a long commute in exchange for a home outside of I-495. Her husband, Michael Relish, is a software manager, and together they make well over the median income. So it's not that she couldn't find anything, she explains. She just couldn't find anything to maintain her quality of life.
    Unable to buy or unwilling to buy, both result in the same erosion of the region's economic mosaic. But business leaders find it particularly unnerving that the most skilled, well-educated, and creative people would make the calculation and conclude that Massachusetts just isn't worth it. "We have options, and we're exercising one of them," says Matheny. "We're leaving."

    For all the fretting about the red-hot market's downside, housing remains a largely invisible crisis: The outflow of people is hard to track; the state will still be here in 5 years even if nothing is done about housing; and there is no simple solution, short of giving everyone who makes less than $60,000 a subsidy for shelter costs. Govt- assisted housing projects are notoriously expensive per unit and hardly seem to make a dent in the problem. Under the Community Preservation Act, Hopkinton voted for a tax surcharge in part to boost affordable housing. The town is spending $100,000 just to move a "free" house donated by the Hopkinton-based EMC Corp. that will create exactly 2 units of affordable housing.

    "When the market swoops in, it's incredibly difficult" to intervene, much less tame it, says National Housing Institute fellow Alan Mallach based in Orange, NJ. "Usually you're too early or you're too late. The best you can do is work at the edges and eke out a unit here and a unit there."
    There are also those who believe that it's pointless to try to manage this kind of a market, anyway. It's expensive to live here, this line of thinking goes, but our wages are higher, and what's wrong with a lot of wealth, anyway? If an entire page in the Sunday real estate section doesn't boast a home for less than $600,000, we must be doing something right. We're in the league with San Francisco or New York.
    Yet, most planners and those in Gov. Mitt Romney's administration remain convinced that prices need to be reined in, to keep Massachusetts from becoming a victim of its own success. The handiest way to do that is to increase supply. Led by Conservation Law Foundation former president Douglas Foy, now ubersecretary for state development, housing, transportation, and the environment, the Romney team wants to see more housing built, but not just anywhere. The governor wants the new housing to be targeted in urban areas that are already "infrastructure rich," meaning near transit or commuter rail. It's a kill-two-birds-with-one-stone approach: tame the affordable-housing crisis while curbing sprawl.

    How to steer growth to where you want it to go: Streamline the permitting process and cut red tape in urban areas served by transit or rail, like Salem, Brockton, or the end of the Orange Line at the Malden-Melrose line, all of which should welcome revitalization. Build housing on closed state hospital sites and land owned by the MBTA, largest single landowner in Eastern Massachusetts. To get notoriously independent communities to change their zoning to allow dense development at town centers and near rail lines, dangle incentives, boosts in state aid to match expanded services, such as funding for schools, or in these tight fiscal times, less-harsh cuts in state aid.
    "We're at a point where we need to make a grand bargain, like the one we made with schools 10 years ago, which was money in exchange for standards. Here, it would be money for local embrace of housing," says the Rappaport Institute's Euchner. "You're asking towns to do something that doesn't benefit them but instead benefits the region."

    As an added incentive, he says, communities that agree to more housing could be let off the hook for Chapter 40B, the controversial state law that fast-tracks residential projects in cities & towns with less than 10 percent affordable housing. There's a willing market for living in cities or compact town centers, between 30 & 40% of home buyers prefer to be able to walk to the corner store, says Miami-based architectural firm Duany Plater-Zyberk principal Andres Duany, founding member of the Congress for the New Urbanism.
    Local developers agree that most of them would gladly build more-dense developments if they were allowed to. "They're building 200 units in North Andover, because that's where the system lets them build," says Piper Rudnick real estate atty Greg Bialecki in Boston. "It's the path of least resistance." Says broker Wluka: "If they allowed homes on smaller lots, people would buy them. Others would still pay a premium for more space. But right now, there isn't a lot of choice."

    Even providing more choice is fraught with pitfalls, however. Romney might find that most people still want single-family homes in the suburbs and are unwilling to move to cities because of perceived sub-par schools. At the macro level, when govts try to manage & control the development of housing, they can end up boosting home prices even higher. Portland, OR urban growth boundary, for example, is intended to make more efficient use of urbanized land through greater density. But it is itself a constraint on supply; no major development is allowed outside of the boundary line.
    "In a hot housing market, trying to direct the new supply of housing into particular neighborhoods and regions runs a very real risk of reducing housing affordability," says Reason Public Policy Institute sr fellow Samuel Staley in Los Angeles. "It continues to limit supply in the places where people want to buy homes. A supply solution is the only answer, but it has to be housing that people want, not where govt officials or planners want them to live."

    Sprawl, the argument goes, is supply unchained, surest way to meet demand is to build the houses wherever they can be built and not, uncoincidentally, where most people want to live. Developers freed from one set of regulations should not be corralled in new & different ways, says Home Builders Association of Massachusetts lobbyist Benjamin Fierro. "We need local zoning reform more than state zoning reform," he says.
    Part of the skepticism about managing growth comes from the pure free-market philosophy of builders. But while builders insist that they are on the same page as environmentalists & planners who want smart growth, some housing advocates are privately dubious that the state can dictate type & location of the homes that get built. The rallying cry here is: just more homes, period.

    The anti-sprawl crowd says that smart growth & affordable housing are synonymous, but the relationship between growth management & home prices is still being studied. For Romney, increasing supply through sprawl is not really an option; his suburban constituencies would revolt. But success of his plan to increase housing supply in urban areas will depend on how much help he's willing to give those places to become more attractive "receiving zones" for housing, says Bialecki. At the moment, there isn't a lot of money to throw around.

    If nothing is done, if the Acia Heaths of the world just remain on the outside looking in, unable to get into the game of home ownership, if demand remains high, supply low, and the Massachusetts real estate market simply hurtles on, leafy New Jersey suburb of Mt Laurel provides one possible answer. A community about 25 miles northeast of Philadelphia, Mount Laurel is the Wellesley of southern New Jersey, with high home prices that have seemingly always been high.
    In the 1970s, a woman named Ethel Lawrence teamed up with 3 enterprising lawyers & the NAACP to file a lawsuit alleging that people of modest means were being shut out of places like Mount Laurel, that the town's nice homes & good schools were unavailable to people who couldn't pay the price of admission. Despite the involvement of the NAACP, the suit wasn't centered on race so much as income.

    To the surprise of some legal scholars, in 1975, NJ Supreme Court sided with Lawrence. The justices deemed that the state constitution guaranteed its citizens due process & equal protection, and that those concepts were violated in communities where low & moderate income families were denied the opportunity to buy a home. In the original ruling, wealthy suburbs were commanded to provide affordable housing. In progressively tougher rulings since then, they were basically forced to open themselves up to builders.
    The so-called builder's-remedy solution required that the towns pass inclusionary zoning ordinances and "density bonuses" that brought about a mix of market-rate and affordable units. Similar to court-ordered desegregation of schools, the mandate has more teeth than Chapter 40B, which is based on legislation and can be repealed at any time. With the judiciary making sure it got done, 30,000 units of affordable housing have come on line in the last 20 years.

    Harvard Design School prof. Jerold Kaydenessor believes what happened in NJ could happen here. "If the political branches of govt don't get their act together," he says, "they could find themselves hauled before judges, who end up dictating the future course of planning & development." All it would take, he says, is a few exasperated families that want to live in the suburbs but can't. They could claim they are being denied their shot at the American dream and denied the chance to give their kids a good education. A lawyer or legal scholar could make quite a name for himself preparing a Mount Laurel-style lawsuit; the surprise for some is that it hasn't been filed already.

    If a Mount Laurel-style lawsuit is indeed a credible threat, maintaining the status quo becomes the ultimate gamble: Do nothing about a real estate market that is out of reach for many thousands and risk having the courts step in and force a solution. Increasing the supply of housing is the move most everyone agrees on; where & how are tougher calls. Targeting built-up places over virgin soil is inarguably friendlier to the planet; it boggles the mind to think of Belchertown as Boston's next big bedroom community. Existing cities are surely part of the answer, but existing suburbs are, too. They can usher in cozy, compact development in their town centers, as Canton & Gloucester have done. Communities without such centers, like Bolton, will have to be extra creative to bring a portion of their housing stock within reach.



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